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THE Reserve Bank left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at its September meeting.
No change was expected.
Market expectations for further easing were pared back following a stronger-than-expected monthly inflation data released prior to today’s meeting.
The monthly series showed annual headline inflation of 3% and trimmed mean at 2.6%.
Components of this number did cause some upward revisions to economists’ forecasts for the more comprehensive third-quarter inflation data due for release on October 29.
(For more details please refer to this article from our head of government bond strategies Tim Hext.)
Yields moved higher in the front end of the curve following the RBA’s decision.
In their statement the RBA noted that “private demand is recovering a little more rapidly than expected”, and the housing market is strengthening.
The market now has around a 40% chance priced in for a rate cut on Melbourne Cup day.
At the start of September it was priced as all but certain.
The RBA has scope to ease policy further – if required.
With 75 basis points of easing so far – and signs of life emerging from household consumption – the case is building for the RBA to remain on hold for the rest of 2025.
Inflation may come in a bit higher than expected in October, but it should not derail further easing.
The RBA seems comfortable with the end destination at the moment – it may just take a little longer to get there.
Should that occur, the meeting in early February would be the next opportunity.
If you’d like to hear more about how Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest team is positioning for this environment, please contact us through your account manager by reply email.
Find out about
Pendal’s
cash funds
Steve Campbell is Pendal’s head of cash strategies. With a background in cash and dealing, Steve brings more than 20 years of financial markets experience to our institutional managed cash portfolio.
Find out more about Pendal’s cash funds:
Short Term Income Securities Fund
Pendal Stable Cash Plus Fund
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia.
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