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Five major ASX reporting season themes | Aussie spending and rate cuts | The countries benefitting from a weaker US dollar
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AUSSIE consumers are spending again – that’s the main message from the June-quarter GDP data out this week.
Overall, growth was slightly higher than expected at 0.6% versus a 0.5% forecast. Annually we are 1.8% stronger than a year ago.
But increased consumer spending comes through as a clear trend, notes Pendal’s head of government bonds Tim Hext.
Despite last year’s tax cuts and February’s rate cuts, for a while it seemed consumers were more interested in saving than spending.
However, household spending rose 0.9% in the last quarter, led by a 1.4% rise in discretionary spending.
Now rate-cut expectations have dropped from 100% chance of one cut by November to 90%.
“It does all feed into the idea that the RBA has time and optionality on its side,” says Tim.
“If the consumer gets more confident from here, some may ask if any more rate cuts are needed.”
A weaker US dollar is creating support for emerging-market equities – but not all countries will benefit equally.
The US Dollar Index – which measures the USD against other major currencies – is down about 10 per cent this year.
EM returns have historically been strongest when the US dollar is weak, because servicing US-dollar debt becomes cheaper; domestic purchasing power in EMs improves; and cheaper imports help keep inflation under control, creating room for rate cuts.
Still, while EM performance lifts as the US dollar weakens, the effect is uneven and investors should be discriminating in country selection, cautions Pendal’s EM team.
Economies with a current account deficit – common in Latin America and South-East Asia – benefit most from cheaper borrowing, lower imported inflation and stronger consumer demand.
But big exporters that run a surplus such as Taiwan and Korea can face headwinds as their products become more expensive in US-dollar terms.
Pendal identified five major themes this ASX reporting season.
1. Overall earnings were okay, with similar trends to February in terms of misses and beats. A third of companies beat by 5% or more and 22% missed.
2. Stock volatililty reached new highs on result days, driven by the tone of messaging and revisions. Almost a third of companies experienced stock moves more than three standard deviations away from their average on reporting day.
3. Rating changes were the most material driver of returns. The biggest re-ratings were generally stocks beginning to stabilise or those that affirmed their status as safe havens.
4. Disappointing large caps were hit harder than smalls. The average two-day relative return for industrial large caps that missed consensus EPS by more than 5% was -7.2% for the ASX 100, versus -3.8% for small caps.
5. Domestic stocks generally performed better than internationally-exposed companies.
A shift in focus from inflation to employment hints at a likely rate cut in September observes Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK
In her latest article, Amy explains how she is positioning Pendal’s income funds in response to these and other global factors.
AUSTRALIAN equities have the potential to offer investors a compelling trio of benefits, argues analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay.
In this video, Elise explains how the Pendal investment process helps her team identify and take advantage of opportunities in Australian shares.
September 3, 2025
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See allGet regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.
These podcasts are for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. They have been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
The information in these podcasts may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any projections contained in these podcasts are predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.
Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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Four big issues driving markets | How tariffs bring opportunities | Why Brazil still looks good
Investors should be watching four macro issues at the moment, says Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
Despite ongoing tariff uncertainty, Pendal’s emerging markets team remains positive on the outlook for Brazil.
Early this month the US imposed sweeping new tariffs on dozens of countries.
Brazil received a special mention from President Trump, with an additional 40 per cent tariff taking the total to 50 per cent for most Brazilian imports.
But some sizeable exemptions will limit the effective tariff rate to around 30 per cent, says Pendal’s EM team in a new note.
Civil aircraft, fertilisers, pig iron, orange juice and mining exports are largely protected.
“We remain positive on the outlook for Brazil and Brazilian equities,” says the team.
“With a relatively strong economy, attractive valuations and the support of a weaker US dollar, Brazilian equities and the Brazilian real have both performed well this year.
“We see the conditions for this to continue, irrespective of challenging headlines.”
Outlook for US inflation | What’s driving equities? | Be cautious with Korean equities
Despite higher input costs from Donald Trump’s tariffs – and some weakness in jobs data last week – US consumer inflation has barely budged.
That’s largely due to contract lags in supply chains and producers absorbing the pain, says Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick.
Purchasing manager surveys show input prices rising – a sign that tariffs are indeed biting at the producer level.
Normally, higher input costs push up consumer prices. That doesn’t seem to be happening yet.
“But this delay won’t last forever,” says Amy. “When contracts roll off, either producers absorb the cost hit or they pass it on. Either way, corporate earnings are at risk.”
While US earnings season has been solid so far, the trend is heading down: three straight quarters of falling earnings growth.
The market has yet to price-in this “pinch”, argues Amy.
In her latest article, Amy explains how she is positioning Pendal’s income funds in response to these and other global factors.
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Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.