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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
Oct 13
Two scenarios are emerging in the US | Why Chinese markets still look strong
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Jim Taylor: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Two scenarios are emerging in the US – but a lack of data is clouding visibility on which might dominate.
“On one hand, we’re seeing strong spending, decent corporate cap-ex and resilient employment support solid corporate earnings and underpin full equity-market valuations,” says Pendal equities PM Jim Taylor.
“On the other, we’re seen slowing labour demand, flat real labour income and a lagged inflation pulse heightening recession fears.”
The US government shut-down – now entering its third week – is restricting the publishing of economic data.
We will finally get to see September US inflation data this Friday evening (it was originally scheduled for October 15), before the Fed’s next rate-setting meeting on October 29.
Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting show a majority view towards “easing policy further over the remainder of the year”.
But some board members noted relatively easy financial conditions warranted “a cautious approach in the consideration of future policy changes”.
China’s showing weak growth, but strong market returns. Here’s why
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China’s showing weak growth, but strong market returns. Here’s why
What do weak growth and strong market returns in China mean for investors? Here’s an explanation from Pendal’s Global Emerging Markets Opportunities team
- Tech and dollar diversification drive China interest
- Weak economic indicators contrast with strong equity returns
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
How to identify emerging markets benefitting from a weaker US dollar
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How to identify emerging markets benefitting from a weaker US dollar
A weaker US dollar is creating support for emerging-market equities – but not all countries will benefit equally.
The US Dollar Index – which measures the USD against other major currencies – is down about 10 per cent this year.
EM returns have historically been strongest when the US dollar is weak, because servicing US-dollar debt becomes cheaper; domestic purchasing power in EMs improves; and cheaper imports help keep inflation under control, creating room for rate cuts.
Still, while EM performance lifts as the US dollar weakens, the effect is uneven and investors should be discriminating in country selection, cautions Pendal’s EM team.
Economies with a current account deficit – common in Latin America and South-East Asia – benefit most from cheaper borrowing, lower imported inflation and stronger consumer demand.
But big exporters that run a surplus such as Taiwan and Korea can face headwinds as their products become more expensive in US-dollar terms.
Amy Xie Patrick: What the Fed’s shift from inflation to employment means for investors
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Amy Xie Patrick: What the Fed’s shift from inflation to employment means for investors
A shift in focus from inflation to employment hints at a likely rate cut in September observes Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK
In her latest article, Amy explains how she is positioning Pendal’s income funds in response to these and other global factors.
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These podcasts are for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. They have been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
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Tim Hext: Is Inflation creeping higher? Are rate cuts over?
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Tim Hext: Is Inflation creeping higher? Are rate cuts over?
THE narrative driving the Reserve Bank and markets this year is that well behaved inflation allows cash rates to slowly move back to neutral.
The exact timing and speed, and indeed where neutral is, would be set against the backdrop of the other key RBA objective – employment.
The RBA recently updated its year-end inflation forecasts to 3% headline and 2.6% underlying (or “trimmed mean”).
So you might expect today’s monthly CPI numbers – 3% headline and 2.6% underlying –to be greeted with a shoulder shrug.
The numbers are volatile but all seems on track.
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