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Why is inflation spiking? | Insights into equities rotation | Rising interest in green bonds | Where to for rates?
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As tariff news has died down, markets have come flying back in the last few months.
“But we do have a world now where the US tariff rate on average is around 18%,” observes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies, Tim Hext.
“That is not a world we have seen for almost 100 years, not since World War II.”
But it’s an environment made for active investors, says Tim in this new short podcast.
It can take years to understand the full impact of trade tariffs, yet markets tend to be very short-term focused, he says.
“That does present a lot of opportunities for an active manager,” says Tim.
“It gives does give us plenty of good opportunities to add value in active portfolios, and that’s what we’re doing at the moment.”
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The latest monthly unemployment data should all but seal an August rate cut, says Pendal’s Tim Hext.
Unemployment jumped to 4.3% in June – the highest rate since late 2021. Only a massive inflation surprise for the June quarter – due out next Wednesday – would stop an August rate cute, says Tim.
But is the June jobs data just noise or the start of a new, upward trend?
We won’t see further ABS jobs data until after next month’s RBA meeting.
But Tim notes that rapid growth in “non-market” jobs (mainly education and healthcare) has masked softer growth in “market” jobs for some time.
“There are signs this non-market job growth may be slowing, so unemployment may drift a bit higher into the end of year.
“However, forward indicators such as job vacancies and NAB’s monthly business survey do not suggest a sharp or rapid rise.”
Tim goes into detail here
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to PETER DAVIDSON
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Aussie equities analyst and portfolio manager ELISE MCKAY and reported by head investment specialist CHRIS ADAMS
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal portfolio manager JULIA FORREST.
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Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.