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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
Aug 7
Outlook for US inflation | What’s driving equities? | Be cautious with Korean equities
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Amy Xie Patrick: How tariffs, inflation and China’s ‘anti-involution’ policy are affecting portfolio decisions
Despite higher input costs from Donald Trump’s tariffs – and some weakness in jobs data last week – US consumer inflation has barely budged.
That’s largely due to contract lags in supply chains and producers absorbing the pain, says Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick.
Purchasing manager surveys show input prices rising – a sign that tariffs are indeed biting at the producer level.
Normally, higher input costs push up consumer prices. That doesn’t seem to be happening yet.
“But this delay won’t last forever,” says Amy. “When contracts roll off, either producers absorb the cost hit or they pass it on. Either way, corporate earnings are at risk.”
While US earnings season has been solid so far, the trend is heading down: three straight quarters of falling earnings growth.
The market has yet to price-in this “pinch”, argues Amy.
In her latest article, Amy explains how she is positioning Pendal’s income funds in response to these and other global factors.
Anthony Moran: What’s driving Aussie equities this week?
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Unemployment’s up. Is it just noise or a sign of things to come?
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Unemployment’s up. Is it just noise or a sign of things to come?
The latest monthly unemployment data should all but seal an August rate cut, says Pendal’s Tim Hext.
Unemployment jumped to 4.3% in June – the highest rate since late 2021. Only a massive inflation surprise for the June quarter – due out next Wednesday – would stop an August rate cute, says Tim.
But is the June jobs data just noise or the start of a new, upward trend?
We won’t see further ABS jobs data until after next month’s RBA meeting.
But Tim notes that rapid growth in “non-market” jobs (mainly education and healthcare) has masked softer growth in “market” jobs for some time.
“There are signs this non-market job growth may be slowing, so unemployment may drift a bit higher into the end of year.
“However, forward indicators such as job vacancies and NAB’s monthly business survey do not suggest a sharp or rapid rise.”
Tim goes into detail here
Emerging markets: Why Korea requires caution despite strong recent performance
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Emerging markets: Why Korea requires caution despite strong recent performance
“We are now in a global environment that looks like a broad bull market in emerging market assets,” writes Pendal’s EM team in its latest monthly article.
However, investors still need to be picky at the country level, the team argues. Korea is an example.
“Historically in these environments, individual emerging markets often experience violent short-term, up-and-down moves as part of a trend of the broader asset class moving higher.
“That’s definitely what it looks like in Korea.
“The second quarter saw MSCI Korea rise 32.7% in USD terms, with the Korean Won’s 8.9% move up against the US Dollar contributing significantly.”
But the stronger Won is a drag on exporters – the backbone of the Korean economy. Meanwhile, first-quarter GDP growth was stagnant and local politics remains unpredictable.
While Pendal’s EM team holds some of the best-performing Korean stocks, overall, it sees more opportunity in Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.
Find out more here
Latest updates from our fund managers
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets: Look past commodity exports to countries with strong domestic demand
July 26, 2023
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July 24
Unemployment may drift higher | Meet Pendal’s small caps team | Be cautious with Korean equities
What’s driving ASX stocks this week?
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What’s driving ASX stocks this week?
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal portfolio manager PETE DAVIDSON. Reported by investment specialist Chris Adams.
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