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Australian Equities
Jim Taylor: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Two scenarios are emerging in the US – but a lack of data is clouding visibility on which might dominate.
“On one hand, we’re seeing strong spending, decent corporate cap-ex and resilient employment support solid corporate earnings and underpin full equity-market valuations,” says Pendal equities PM Jim Taylor.
“On the other, we’re seen slowing labour demand, flat real labour income and a lagged inflation pulse heightening recession fears.”
The US government shut-down – now entering its third week – is restricting the publishing of economic data.
We will finally get to see September US inflation data this Friday evening (it was originally scheduled for October 15), before the Fed’s next rate-setting meeting on October 29.
Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting show a majority view towards “easing policy further over the remainder of the year”.
But some board members noted relatively easy financial conditions warranted “a cautious approach in the consideration of future policy changes”.
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
Oliver Renton: What’s driving Aussie equities this week?
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Oliver Renton: What’s driving Aussie equities this week?
Rajinder Singh: What’s driving Aussie equities this week?
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Rajinder Singh: What’s driving Aussie equities this week?
Crispin Murray: Equities can continue grinding higher if these risks remain contained
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Crispin Murray: Equities can continue grinding higher if these risks remain contained
To come
Jack Gabb: What’s driving the ASX this week?
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Jack Gabb: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Jim Taylor: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Pendal identified five major themes this ASX reporting season.
1. Overall earnings were okay, with similar trends to February in terms of misses and beats. A third of companies beat by 5% or more and 22% missed.
2. Stock volatililty reached new highs on result days, driven by the tone of messaging and revisions. Almost a third of companies experienced stock moves more than three standard deviations away from their average on reporting day.
3. Rating changes were the most material driver of returns. The biggest re-ratings were generally stocks beginning to stabilise or those that affirmed their status as safe havens.
4. Disappointing large caps were hit harder than smalls. The average two-day relative return for industrial large caps that missed consensus EPS by more than 5% was -7.2% for the ASX 100, versus -3.8% for small caps.
5. Domestic stocks generally performed better than internationally-exposed companies.
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
- US rate expectations
- AI sentiment shift
- Tariffs
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Investors should be watching four macro issues at the moment, says Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
- US inflation trends and the impact of tariffs: “There is nothing in the current inflation data to derail a September rate cut,” says Crispin. Tariff revenues are beginning to flow through “and we are now in the key phase of assessing the impact on inflation”.
- US economic growth momentum: “Data suggests the industrial side of the economy is struggling but consumers are holding up okay.” Look to Fed chair Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday and payrolls on Sep 4.
- Chinese policy initiatives: Expect a softer second half for China, which may mean more incremental stimulus measures.
- Australian economic growth momentum: The Australian economic outlook looks reasonable but a tight labour market will encourage the RBA to remain measured.
Jim Taylor: What’s driving the ASX this week?
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Jim Taylor: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Anthony Moran: What’s driving Aussie equities this week?
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Anthony Moran: What’s driving Aussie equities this week?
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