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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
Sep 4
Five major ASX reporting season themes | Aussie spending and rate cuts | The countries benefitting from a weaker US dollar
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Aussies are spending again. But what does it mean for rate cuts?
AUSSIE consumers are spending again – that’s the main message from the June-quarter GDP data out this week.
Overall, growth was slightly higher than expected at 0.6% versus a 0.5% forecast. Annually we are 1.8% stronger than a year ago.
But increased consumer spending comes through as a clear trend, notes Pendal’s head of government bonds Tim Hext.
Despite last year’s tax cuts and February’s rate cuts, for a while it seemed consumers were more interested in saving than spending.
However, household spending rose 0.9% in the last quarter, led by a 1.4% rise in discretionary spending.
Now rate-cut expectations have dropped from 100% chance of one cut by November to 90%.
“It does all feed into the idea that the RBA has time and optionality on its side,” says Tim.
“If the consumer gets more confident from here, some may ask if any more rate cuts are needed.”
How to identify emerging markets benefitting from a weaker US dollar
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How to identify emerging markets benefitting from a weaker US dollar
A weaker US dollar is creating support for emerging-market equities – but not all countries will benefit equally.
The US Dollar Index – which measures the USD against other major currencies – is down about 10 per cent this year.
EM returns have historically been strongest when the US dollar is weak, because servicing US-dollar debt becomes cheaper; domestic purchasing power in EMs improves; and cheaper imports help keep inflation under control, creating room for rate cuts.
Still, while EM performance lifts as the US dollar weakens, the effect is uneven and investors should be discriminating in country selection, cautions Pendal’s EM team.
Economies with a current account deficit – common in Latin America and South-East Asia – benefit most from cheaper borrowing, lower imported inflation and stronger consumer demand.
But big exporters that run a surplus such as Taiwan and Korea can face headwinds as their products become more expensive in US-dollar terms.
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Pendal identified five major themes this ASX reporting season.
1. Overall earnings were okay, with similar trends to February in terms of misses and beats. A third of companies beat by 5% or more and 22% missed.
2. Stock volatililty reached new highs on result days, driven by the tone of messaging and revisions. Almost a third of companies experienced stock moves more than three standard deviations away from their average on reporting day.
3. Rating changes were the most material driver of returns. The biggest re-ratings were generally stocks beginning to stabilise or those that affirmed their status as safe havens.
4. Disappointing large caps were hit harder than smalls. The average two-day relative return for industrial large caps that missed consensus EPS by more than 5% was -7.2% for the ASX 100, versus -3.8% for small caps.
5. Domestic stocks generally performed better than internationally-exposed companies.
Amy Xie Patrick: What the Fed’s shift from inflation to employment means for investors
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Amy Xie Patrick: What the Fed’s shift from inflation to employment means for investors
A shift in focus from inflation to employment hints at a likely rate cut in September observes Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK
In her latest article, Amy explains how she is positioning Pendal’s income funds in response to these and other global factors.
Pendal profile: Meet Australian equities analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay
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Pendal profile: Meet Australian equities analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay
AUSTRALIAN equities have the potential to offer investors a compelling trio of benefits, argues analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay.
In this video, Elise explains how the Pendal investment process helps her team identify and take advantage of opportunities in Australian shares.
Latest updates from our fund managers
Income and Fixed Interest
Aussies are spending again. But what does it mean for rate cuts?
September 3, 2025
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Emerging Markets
Emerging markets: Look past commodity exports to countries with strong domestic demand
July 26, 2023
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These podcasts are for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. They have been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
The information in these podcasts may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.
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Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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July 24
Unemployment may drift higher | Meet Pendal’s small caps team | Be cautious with Korean equities
Unemployment’s up. Is it just noise or a sign of things to come?
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Unemployment’s up. Is it just noise or a sign of things to come?
The latest monthly unemployment data should all but seal an August rate cut, says Pendal’s Tim Hext.
Unemployment jumped to 4.3% in June – the highest rate since late 2021. Only a massive inflation surprise for the June quarter – due out next Wednesday – would stop an August rate cute, says Tim.
But is the June jobs data just noise or the start of a new, upward trend?
We won’t see further ABS jobs data until after next month’s RBA meeting.
But Tim notes that rapid growth in “non-market” jobs (mainly education and healthcare) has masked softer growth in “market” jobs for some time.
“There are signs this non-market job growth may be slowing, so unemployment may drift a bit higher into the end of year.
“However, forward indicators such as job vacancies and NAB’s monthly business survey do not suggest a sharp or rapid rise.”
Tim goes into detail here
What’s driving ASX stocks this week?
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What’s driving ASX stocks this week?
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal portfolio manager PETE DAVIDSON. Reported by investment specialist Chris Adams.
Pendal profile: Meet our small-cap portfolio managers Lewis Edgley and Patrick Teodorowski
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Pendal profile: Meet our small-cap portfolio managers Lewis Edgley and Patrick Teodorowski
So far in 2025, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index has outperformed the ASX 200.
That dosen’t surprise Pendal’s small-cap PMs Lewis Edgley and Patrick Teodorowski, who expect smalls to bounce back as rates fall.
“We’ve seen in previous cycles when rates have started to be cut, that it tends to act as a positive catalyst for small caps,” says Patrick in a new Pendal video.
Patrick points to three diversification factors that experienced small-cap managers can use to their advantage:
1. The “sheer number of investable opportunities”, through which the team searches for mispriced opportunities
2. Wide sectoral breadth, which offers “money-making opportunities regardless of what the economy is doing”
3. And diversity of quality, which demands expertise and experience in finding the best businesses and avoiding the bad ones.
Watch the video here
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