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CONFIRMATION of Xi Jinping’s third term as China’s leader last weekend wasn’t surprising, but the degree of his apparent control is greater than most expected.
Most commentators say this is close to a worst-case outcome in terms of concentration of power, says Pendal portfolio manager Brenton Saunders.
“All members of the powerful seven-person central standing committee are considered Xi loyalists,” says Brenton, who manages Pendal’s Australian midcap and resources portfolios.
“This is likely to embolden Xi to continue pursuing his regional and global geopolitical ambitions.
“Details of a five-year plan will be forthcoming. But it appears the main aim will be to turn the ‘successfully achieved moderately prosperous society‘ into a ‘modern socialist society’.
“This is seen as part of China’s ambitions to be an independent technology powerhouse and to project power and influence.
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“This may suggest the economy remains on a relatively austere pathway by historical standards.
“Stimulus could be used in a more surgical manner to achieve economic goals where needed.
“The potential outcome for the property market remains muted. Material stimulus is unlikely beyond the short term.
“This is a headwind to economic growth and demand for steel-making materials.”
Iron ore and coking coal stocks are most exposed to the trend long term, says Brenton.
But China’s strategic pivot to technology, grid investment and electric vehicles should benefit base metal and lithium-producing companies in the long term, he says.
Brenton is a portfolio manager with Pendal’s Australian equities team. He manages Pendal MidCap Fund, drawing on more than 25 years of expertise. He is a member of the CFA Institute.
Pendal MidCap Fund features 40-60 Australian midcap shares. The fund leverages insights and experience gained from Pendal’s access to senior executives and directors at ASX-listed companies. Pendal operates one of Australia’s biggest Aussie equities teams under the experienced leadership of Crispin Murray.
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
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