Global equities: Three different scenarios and their probabilities | Pendal Group
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Global equities: Three different scenarios and their probabilities

October 12, 2022

An equity markets rally is more likely to be led by quality growth stocks than cyclical value stocks, argues Pendal’s CHRIS LEES

THE December quarter may see a rally, but equities will be range bound for the next few years, with rotations between value and growth stocks, argues Pendal global equities fund manager Chris Lees.

“Our base-case scenario is that this interest rate shock-crisis ‘valuation’ bear market is morphing into a recessionary ‘profits’ bear market, with the S&P 500 already down 25% year-to-date.

“But we don’t expect widespread financial contagion, where markets would fall by more than 50% like in 2008.

“Our current scenario analysis is 50% bullish and 50% bearish,” says Lees, who co-manages Pendal Global Select Fund with long-time colleague Nudgem Richyal.

Short-term reasons to be bearish include a recession potentially becoming a financial crisis or contagion.

“Medium-term reasons to be bullish include the US Federal Reserve regaining credibility with inflation and interest rates stabilising next year,” Lees says.

Lees breaks down the probability of three scenarios as follows:

  • Bullish scenario #1 (15 per cent): Equity markets rally, led by cyclical value stocks. In this case it is probably nearer the beginning of the bear market for those stocks, because any future downturn, or recession, is likely to hit their earnings the hardest.

  • Bullish scenario #2 (35 per cent probability): Equity markets rally, led by quality growth stocks. That means economically resilient, quality growth stocks are nearer the end, than the beginning, of their bear market.

  • Bearish scenario (50 per cent): Equity markets keep falling if recession becomes a financial crisis or contagion and policy makers do not react.

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What does it mean for investing?

In recent months the fund has sold economically cyclical stocks with earnings risk due to recession, and purchased more economically resilient companies, including some in the emerging markets of Brazil and Indonesia.

“Not many people know that the Brazilian and Indonesian equity markets have outperformed the USA stock market this year – even in US dollars – which is another example of just how different this bear market is from previous bear markets when they fell much harder,” Lees says.

The fund is also considering, or as Lees puts it “tiptoeing” around, neighbourhoods where they see positive relative fundamentals and valuations, with stabilising relative share prices.

“Some quality growth stocks are already down 50 per cent year to date and are beginning to stabilise,” Lees says. “And some emerging markets, notably Brazil and Indonesia.”

He also says its worth looking for opportunities to arise from the eventual turn in the US dollar, which in his words is “inevitable but not necessarily imminent”.


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About Chris Lees and Nudgem Richyal

Chris Lees co-manages Pendal Global Select Fund with Nudgem Richyal. The pair have been working together in global equities investing for more than 20 years.

Chris has more than 32 years of investment industry experience. He joined Pendal Group’s UK-based asset manager J O Hambro Capital Management (JOHCM) in 2008 after spending 19 years at Baring Asset Management, ultimately as head of its global sector team.


About Pendal Global Select Fund

Pendal Global Select Fund is a global equities portfolio with a distinctive, yet proven approach and a 17-year track record of outperformance. Since its inception, the underlying strategy (JOHCM Global Select Fund) has delivered top-decile performance in Lipper and 2nd decile in Morningstar.*


This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at October 12, 2022. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Global Select Fund (Fund) ARSN: 651 789 678. A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8:00am to 6:00pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com * The Zenith Investment Partners (ABN 27 103 132 672, AFS Licence 226872) (“Zenith”) rating (assigned ) referred to in this document is limited to “General Advice” (s766B Corporations Act 2001) for Wholesale clients only. This advice has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual and is subject to change at any time without prior notice. It is not a specific recommendation to purchase, sell or hold the relevant product(s). Investors should seek independent financial advice before making an investment decision and should consider the appropriateness of this advice in light of their own objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should obtain a copy of and consider the PDS or offer document before making any decision and refer to the full Zenith Product Assessment available on the Zenith website. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Zenith usually charges the product issuer, fund manager or related party to conduct Product Assessments. Full details regarding Zenith’s methodology, ratings definitions and regulatory compliance are available on our Product Assessments and at http://www.zenithpartners. com.au/RegulatoryGuidelines

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