Chris joined Pendal as an equity investment specialist in 2014, with industry experience going back to 2000 across Sydney, London and Hong Kong. He works closely with Pendal’s Australian Equities team and provides the link to their views and insights on the outlook for Australian equity markets and portfolio positions. He also works with emerging market, Asian and global equity teams, drawing on thirteen years in working in offshore markets. Prior to joining Pendal he spent eight years as an equity portfolio specialist with BlackRock and then HSBC Global Asset Management. He is a CFA Charterholder.

What can investors learn from major developed nations as they emerge from lockdowns? Here fund manager Clive Beagles gives his perspective from the UK

BRITISH stocks are likely to outperform in the next few years — especially in the small and mid-cap sector — even though the UK is likely to be one of the first major economies to start tightening fiscal and monetary policy.

As major developed nations emerge from Covid restrictions — and spending and inflation picks up — domestic focused companies on the UK bourse are likely to outperform, says Clive Beagles, senior fund manager at Pendal Group’s UK based asset manager J O Hambro.

“You get more of the domestic stocks in the mid and small cap part of the market,” he explains.

“Valuations in that part of the market are undemanding and it feels like there’s an awful lot of internally generated momentum.

“On top of that, the UK market is undervalued more generally, and we expect the currency to firm particularly if Britain is going to be early in the tapering cycle.

“And there’s still quite a healthy pipeline of mergers and acquisitions.

All of these things mean the UK should outperform.  It has been doing so already … but more by stealth. And I expect it to keep doing so.”

The view from here

Watching what happens on London’s FTSE is more than trying to pick winners. It’s also a guide for other markets.

The United Kingdom led global markets — including Australia — into the COVID pandemic with high infection rates.

It’s also coming out first, with the economy broadly re-opened. As Australian states push to hit vaccination targets, thereby allowing reopening of economies, the UK is several months ahead, with two-thirds of the British population now fully vaccinated.

While the Australian economy came to a suddering halt this quarter, the UK is expanding quickly — so quickly that the government has introduced tax hikes.

“By announcing an increase in the national insurance contribution, the UK became the first Western government to start shifting towards balancing the books,” Beagles says.

And the Bank of England is sounding more hawkish.

In its most recent monetary policy summary last month, the central bank said while inflationary forces were most likely transitory, the economy “is projected to experience a more pronounced period of above-inflation in the near term”.

It’s not surprising that the government and central bank want to make fiscal and monetary policy “less loose” given real economic growth is expected to be around 7 per cent over the next couple of years, Beagle says.

“That has to impact how policy makers are thinking. We’ve had input inflation and now we’ve got a really tight labour market that that will feed into wage inflation. That will be stickier and harder to reduce.”

But Beagles is not concerned that any tightening of policy will dramatically hit the British equity market in the next couple of years.

“Consumer spending makes up quite a large proportion of the UK economy … because it is a mature economy and a services economy. In that regard, the level of employment and the taxes that generates will be more important than whether the marginal tax rate has gone up a per cent tor two.”

Also, the government has put in place incentives for businesses over the next two years.

“We definitely expect to see business investment picking up,” Beagle says. “Those two things together mean you’re looking at strong real GDP growth. And that should support the market for the next couple of years.”

About Pendal Group

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Find out about Pendal’s investment strategies

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Recent billion-dollar sporting team deals demonstrate why it’s important to be selective when choosing global equities. Pendal’s ASHLEY PITTARD explains

• Choose the top one or two stocks in a sector
• Find out about Ashley Pittard’s Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

THE record-breaking $US6 billion sale of the Washington Commanders NFL team last month is the latest in a rush of billion-dollar transactions involving trophy sporting teams.

If you can choose the right sporting “franchise” to buy, the returns are eye-watering.

The last time there was a rush of sporting team sales was around 20 years ago – and their value has soared around ten times since then.

What’s that got to do with stocks? A lot, says our head of global equities, Ashley Pittard

Ashley and his investing team haven’t bought any sporting teams lately.

But like the most successful sporting team transactions, Ashley focuses on what he calls “franchise assets”.

It’s all about being selective, he says.

Look for franchise assets

“Franchise assets – companies that are number one or two in their space or are monopoly or duopoly business – are also highly valued among investors at the moment,” Ashley says, pointing to the tech leaders dominating Wall Street.

Pittard’s Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund focuses on franchise assets such as airports, Boeing and Airbus, stock exchanges, brewers, major banks and select technology companies.

Being selective — choosing the top one or two players in a market — is key, just as it is when buying a sporting team.

“Last month, the Washington Commanders NFL team in the US was sold for just over $US6 billion,” Pittard notes. “In February this year, the Phoenix Suns basketball team was sold for $US4 billion.

“Michael Jordan recently sold the Charlotte Hornets for $US3 billion. And English Premier League giant Manchester United is, reportedly, close to being sold for £6 billion.”

Compare those values to sports sales 20 years ago — around the time of the last tech boom.

“The Washington football team was sold in 1999 for $US600 million. In 2004 the Phoenix Suns was sold for $US400 million.

“The Charlotte Hornets went for $US300 million in 2003 and Manchester United was sold for £300 million,” he says.

“These assets are trading for around ten times what they sold for back then.”

The tech franchises

In the world of investing, it’s also interesting to observe when trophy assets change hands, says Pittard.

Last time the there was a rush of sales of sporting teams, the technology sector in the US was dominated by the ‘Four Horseman’ – Microsoft, Intel, Cisco and Dell.

They comprised about 17 per cent of the weighting of the S&P500.

“If you look today, the magnificent seven, which are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla and Nvidia, comprise about 20 per cent of the market,” Pittard says.

“The Four Horsemen had unquestioned market dominance and the magnificent seven today have unquestioned market dominance in their fields.”

The similarities between the last tech boom and trophy asset sales back then, and what’s happening today are worth considering, Pittard says.

“The sales of sports franchises don’t come up that often. They are high in demand. Usually sales happens when there is a crisis or valuations get extreme. It’s interesting to watch what’s happening with these franchise assets.”

“The lesson for investors is that you want to be selective, and you want to be concentrated when investing.

“You also want to be defensive because there are uncertainties in the world around the macro-outlook and credit.”

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About Ashley Pittard and Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Ashley Pittard leads Pendal’s Global Equities investment boutique. He is responsible for setting the strategy, processes and risk management for the boutique and its funds including Pendal Concentrated Global Share (COGS) Fund.

Ashley has more than 24 years of finance experience, including roles in petroleum economics, global energy investment analysis and 20 years as a global equities fund manager.

Pendal COGS Fund is an actively managed, concentrated portfolio of global shares diversified across a broad range of global sharemarkets.

Find out more about Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

Contact a Pendal key account manager here.

One way to get exposure to the post-Covid tourism growth story is via plane manufacturers. Pendal global equities PM ASHLEY PITTARD explains

• Paris Air Show demonstrates strong demand
• Major manufacturers act as duopoly
• Find out about Ashley Pittard’s Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

AUSTRALIANS who experienced shoulder-to-shoulder tourist crowds during overseas holidays this year might be wondering how to get exposure to the fast-recovering travel industry.

Even before the northern Summer travel season, international tourism was returning strongly towards pre-pandemic levels, notes the UN’s World Tourism Organisation.

Commercial flight bookings have also recovered, catching up with leisure bookings late last year, notes Mastercard in its latest travel industry trends report.

One way to get exposure to this story is via plane manufacturers says Pendal global equities PM Ashley Pittard.

Pittard recently attended the 2023 Paris Air Show during two months of travel, meeting company executives across Europe.

The Paris Air Show is the world’s premier aerospace trade show. This year, post-Covid, more than 1000 new plane orders were announced, demonstrating the rude health of the two big manufacturers, says Pittard.

“Demand for planes is very, very strong,” says Ashley Pittard, who manages Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund.

“The backlog for the industry is about 8000 units which is about the next ten years of production.”

There are four key reasons, Pittard says.

• “There are new markets like India which are opening up dramatically as demonstrated by the orders at the Paris Air Show.
• “China is slowly opening up again, albeit slower than Europe.
• “There is a sustainability trend – airlines are getting rid of older planes and buying new, more efficient options.
• “And there is also higher airline yields – more people are flying.”

The two major airline manufacturers comprise about 7 per cent of Pittard’s concentrated share fund, while airport monopolies account for another 4.5 per cent.  

When valuing aircraft manufacturers, investors need to look five years out because of the long-life cycle in manufacturing an aircraft, Pittard says.

That cycle, alongside capital expenditure and other factors, means Airbus and Boeing act as a duopoly with little chance of a competitor in the medium term.

Post-Covid tourism growth

While demand has jumped, there’s still some way to go with Asian tourists yet to return to pre-Covid levels, and international travel still below 2019 numbers.

That augurs well for the manufacturers.

Also, both large manufacturers have been able to maintain pricing power.

Airbus, which has about a 60 per cent share of the narrow-bodied planes, benefitted from the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft in 2019.

“There is plenty of demand for Airbus, it has a beautiful back-book and it has pricing power,” Pittard says.

Boeing has less pricing power, but it is trading on a low multiple. Boeing continued to build planes during 2019, notwithstanding its challenges around its Boeing 737 aircraft.

As a result it has planes ready to deliver, and be paid for, resulting in very strong cash flow.

“Boeing is really cheap. It has $78 billion dollars of inventory on its balance sheet. The majority is finished, or near-finished planes.

“Its total market capitalisation is only $US150 billion. So half its market cap are planes that are sitting there, and they just have to deliver them.”

Keep an eye on supply chain

The potential downside for the aircraft manufacturers is supply chain issues.

“It’s skilled labour – building a plane needs high skills and many left the industry during Covid.

“And there’s a shortage of engine parts. Suppliers are able to produce engines, but because demand for planes is so strong, some of them have been diverting resources into manufacturing spare parts for existing planes. They are getting a higher return on servicing parts.”

Main image: A Boeing 777X flies over the Paris Air Show (June, 2023). Photo credit: Anthony Guerra

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About Ashley Pittard and Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Ashley Pittard leads Pendal’s Global Equities investment boutique. He is responsible for setting the strategy, processes and risk management for the boutique and its funds including Pendal Concentrated Global Share (COGS) Fund.

Ashley has more than 24 years of finance experience, including roles in petroleum economics, global energy investment analysis and 20 years as a global equities fund manager.

Pendal COGS Fund is an actively managed, concentrated portfolio of global shares diversified across a broad range of global sharemarkets.

Find out more about Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

Contact a Pendal key account manager here.

The long-forecast US recession has been delayed once again, says ASHLEY PITTARD, who heads up Pendal’s Global Equities investment team

• Capex spending to boost economy
• Tech stocks selection critical
• Find out about Ashley Pittard’s Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

BANK of America last week became the first big Wall Street bank to reverse its recession call.

Are they right?

“Given the strong capital expenditure numbers we are seeing in the US June quarter earnings season, it’s going to be very hard for the US to have a recession this year,” says Ashley Pittard, who heads up Pendal’s global equities investment team.

“Over the last ten years, US companies under-invested. Since the global financial crisis, only 38c in every dollar that was generated from operations or borrowed, was invested.

“Before the global financial crisis it was 53c.”

Instead, corporate America has spent more on share buybacks, notwithstanding the very low interest rates during the period and a pretty good economy, Pittard says.

But this US earnings season, corporate America looks to be taking a different view.

“What you are seeing in the earnings numbers, and what you have seen the entire year, is that capital expenditure is accelerating – 15 per cent in the current quarter, year-on-year, and 14 per cent in the first quarter.

“It’s very hard to have a recession when you capital expenditure is so high,” Pittard says.

The key reason for the boost in capex is re-shoring of operations, post-Covid in a more fraught geo-political environment.

“A couple of years ago, no-one mentioned re-shoring. This earnings season, mentions have gone exponential,” he says.

That’s the headline outcome of Wall Street’s earnings season.

US earnings are beating estimates

In terms of numbers, earnings have beaten estimates by about four per cent, and by one per cent on sales, Pittard says.

“We are seeing better margins.

“The ‘beats’ are about the historical average, so it’s been a nice earnings season.

“Where you’ve seen most headwinds is in energy, year-on-year, and that’s because prices are lower.

“Materials have come back due to softness in China. And the low-end semi-conductor sector has been weak, cutting their guidance and outlining high inventory levels.”

The outlook for tech

In terms of the Wall Street technology companies, which have outperformed for much of this calendar year, Pittard says investors need to be selective.

“One of the core themes in our concentrated share fund since the beginning of the year was keep the COVID losers but be selective on 2022 losers. And 2022 losers were mostly tech stocks,” he says.

Ashley’s Pendal Concentrated Global Share fund has substantial positions in Amazon, Google, Netflix, Meta and Warner Bros. Discovery.  

“We have been selective. We don’t own Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.

“With Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, it comes down to valuation.

In the case of Apple and Microsoft, they are trading on a price-to-earnings multiple of 33 times. If they can’t get sustainable growth, then that PE is coming down.

“In Apple’s case, the only thing that grew last quarter was their service business.”

Some of the other tech stocks, such as Meta, Amazon and Google, also have the ability to lower costs, Pittard says.

“They are the businesses which have a better skew towards where the growth is, particularly Artificial Intelligence.”

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About Ashley Pittard and Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Ashley Pittard leads Pendal’s Global Equities investment boutique. He is responsible for setting the strategy, processes and risk management for the boutique and its funds including Pendal Concentrated Global Share (COGS) Fund.

Ashley has more than 24 years of finance experience, including roles in petroleum economics, global energy investment analysis and 20 years as a global equities fund manager.

Pendal COGS Fund is an actively managed, concentrated portfolio of global shares diversified across a broad range of global sharemarkets.

Find out more about Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

Contact a Pendal key account manager here.

Here, Pendal’s head of global equities ASHLEY PITTARD makes the case for quality banks ahead of a likely US recession

• UBS, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo top picks
• US recession likely; should trigger a steepening of the yield curve
• Find out about Ashley Pittard’s Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

THE turmoil among global banks over the past six weeks has created opportunities for investors, with Swiss based UBS and Wall Street giants JP Morgan and Wells Fargo the top picks, says Ashley Pittard, our head of global equities.

“I think UBS is a standout for the next ten years as an investment,” he says.

“You want to invest in a bank that’s one or two in its market, and has high quality management.

“Bank stocks can go down in a crisis environment, but the quality banks don’t go broke and that’s a key point.”

Banks should do well in coming quarters as they reprice credit and achieve higher margins.

“Near term, interest rates have stopped rising and the yield curve is flattish or even inverted.

“But if we fast-forward through the year, we believe there’s going to be a recession in the US. That would likely mean the Federal Reserve will have to cut rates into next year.

“The yield curve will steepen and that’s good for banks because they borrow short and lend long and they are going to get a wider spread. That will feed back in a couple of years’ time into higher earnings.”

The current turmoil could push out weaker lenders who aren’t pricing loans rationally — which would help the top banks.

Short-term risks

Pittard warns there are risks in the short term.

“What are the write-downs going to be, particularly if the recession is hard? That’s the big near-term risk.

“That’s why you want to be with the highest quality banks – number one or two in their market.”

On UBS, Pittard says its metrics are strong. It has just absorbed its second largest competitor, has a 30 per cent plus share in retail banking in Switzerland, and is the number one global bank for ultra-high net worth individuals.

Importantly, UBS has strong management, he says.

“The new CEO, Sergio Ermotti, is the Tom Brady of European banking,” Pittard says, referring to most successful quarterback in US football.

Ermotti left the bank in 2020 after a successful stint, and then took the top job again on April 5.

“He first came to UBS after the global financial crisis and got them out of high-risk investment banking, increased market share in their ultra net worth business, and boosted dividends and the stock price. 

“He just grinds away. He gets costs out of the business, right sizes the riskier parts and gives money back to shareholders.”

Pittard says two US bank stocks worth looking at are JP Morgan, run by the very experienced Jamie Dimon, and Wells Fargo, run by Charles Scharf.

“Dimon is the last remaining US bank CEO who actually went through the GFC,” Pittard says. “Scharf got the CEO job at Wells Fargo in late 2019 and has cleaned it up and ticked all the boxes.”

In terms of why the global banking sector found itself in its current situation, there are several factors, Pittard says.

“There were poor management practices. There’s also been mishandling of the repricing of the rapid interest rate changes over the last year. You’ve also had volatility around what the US Federal Reserve is going to do.”

Pittard says there’s also a regulatory overlay.

“When Donald Trump was in power, he rolled back some of the banking regulations that were put in place directly after the global financial crisis which meant the regulation of smaller banks, like Silicon Valley Bank, was lighter than regulation of the big banks,” Pittard says.

“Also stress testing of the bank last year didn’t consider large jumps in interest rates, which is what actually happened.”

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About Ashley Pittard and Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Ashley Pittard leads Pendal’s Global Equities investment boutique. He is responsible for setting the strategy, processes and risk management for the boutique and its funds including Pendal Concentrated Global Share (COGS) Fund.

Ashley has more than 24 years of finance experience, including roles in petroleum economics, global energy investment analysis and 20 years as a global equities fund manager.

Pendal COGS Fund is an actively managed, concentrated portfolio of global shares diversified across a broad range of global sharemarkets.

Find out more about Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

Contact a Pendal key account manager here.

A US recession is highly likely, but it will be shallow and provide compelling valuations for global equities investors, says Pendal’s ASHLEY PITTARD

• Capex to underpin US growth 
• CHIPS and Science Act drives US138bn in spending
• Find out about Ashley Pittard’s Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

THE great re-shoring of American industrial production will help the US avoid a deep recession this year and could underpin strong economic growth for the next decade, says Pendal’s Ashley Pittard. 

The Biden government this month opened applications for some US$53 billion in manufacturing subsidies under the CHIPS and Science Act, which seeks to boost domestic semiconductor and high-tech manufacturing. 

Already, US$138 billion of capital spending has been committed from companies including Intel, Samsung, Texas Instruments, Micron Technology and GlobalFoundries. The first new facilities are expected to be operating as soon as this year. 

“It’s just like Warren Buffett says: never bet against America,” says Pittard, who manages the Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund. 

“The US always was and still remains a powerhouse in manufacturing.” 

The tailwind of bringing manufacturing capacity back onshore will drive capital expenditure back to its pre-2000 levels, believes Pittard. 

“It is going back to pre-peak-globalisation — and should compound 5 to 6 per cent a year which would give you a nice buffer. That’s why we don’t think the recession will be that deep in the US.” 

Capital expenditure a critical driver

Capital expenditure is a critical driver of economic growth, says Pittard. 

“You’re not just putting a digger in the ground. You need to hire people to help with permits, you need builders, you have to buy the equipment, you have to have the equipment installed, you need to find a high skilled workforce. It’s pure Reagan trickle-down economics,” says Pittard. 

It’s a big turnaround for the US, which has long seen companies move production offshore to take advantage of cheaper labour in China and south-east Asia. 

The trend to outsourcing means capital expenditure has grown at an annual rate of just 3 per cent since 2000 compared to the 5 per cent plus clip in the prior two decades. 

The decline in capex growth was largely due to falling spending on technology, consumer electronics and apparel. 

The average American company now outsources between 25 and 50 per cent of production, compared to a 10 per cent outsourcing rate in comparable firms in the UK and Europe, Pittard says. 

“They do it because they get a higher return on capital. They’ve got supply chains and just in time inventory and all that stuff. 

“But what they learned from COVID and China’s lockdowns and war is that the sales that you lose by outsourcing that production just isn’t worth it now. 

“America is saying ‘for the sake of national security, for the sake of jobs, let’s bring it all back so that instead of giving jobs to the rest of the world, we’re bringing them back to the US’.” 

Pittard says onshoring is estimated to create an additional 200,000 jobs a year which is a 1.4 per cent boost to the total US manufacturing labour force. 

US ‘highly attractive’

The upshot for investors? The US remains a highly attractive market, says Pittard. 

“The caveat of course is if the Fed hits us over the head with a hammer by raising rates too aggressively, but there’s a tailwind from this higher capital expenditure which will help buffer the economy. 

“The CHIPS and Science Act is an awesome act.

“It was passed in November last year and this week was the first implementation and already you’ve had the $140 billion in investment that will all kick in over the next two years. 

“Peak globalisation went too far.” 

Pittard says investors should ensure they have a good industrial base in their portfolios and be selective on the big technology companies that benefit from the re-shoring. 

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About Ashley Pittard and Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Ashley Pittard leads Pendal’s Global Equities investment boutique. He is responsible for setting the strategy, processes and risk management for the boutique and its funds including Pendal Concentrated Global Share (COGS) Fund.

Ashley has more than 24 years of finance experience, including roles in petroleum economics, global energy investment analysis and 20 years as a global equities fund manager.

Pendal COGS Fund is an actively managed, concentrated portfolio of global shares diversified across a broad range of global sharemarkets.

Find out more about Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

Contact a Pendal key account manager here.

It could be time for US equities investors to take a bit of money off the table in some sectors, says Pendal’s ASHLEY PITTARD

• Wall St earnings season stronger than expected
• Macro-economy remains the wildcard
• Find out about Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

THE macro-economy – inflation, growth, employment – drives top-line sentiment among investors.

But earnings in sectors and companies drive the valuation of specific stocks, notes Pendal’s head of global equities Ashley Pittard.

This was demonstrated recently by a better-than-expected result for Facebook-owner Meta which pushed its share price up 25 per cent.

As the graph below shows, it then fell back sharply, albeit briefly, when stronger-than-expected labour force figures in the US hinted at further interest rate rises, taking the steam out of Wall Street.

Still, earnings season allows investors to look beyond the big picture.

“We’re about halfway through US earnings season and we’ve seen earnings growth fall by about 3 per cent, which is marginally better than what was forecast,” says Pittard, who manages Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund.

Sectors to watch

While the energy sector has been the out-performer, thanks to very high prices, consumer discretionary stocks have been the surprise packet so far this season.

“The worst-case scenarios for the US consumer have been averted and they’re looking okay. It reinforces the view that if there is a recession, it should be mild.”

The laggards, as expected, have been the technology stocks.

“Across the economy, you are now seeing a normalisation of spending on technology and a slowing of cloud build outs,” Pittard says.

“As a result, you are seeing cost savings announcements and capital expenditure cuts in the big tech companies.”

Across the earnings season there have been plenty of signs of easing inflationary and supply chain pressures.

At Amazon, for example, shipping costs as a percentage of gross merchandise value is back to 2019 levels and is trending lower.

Pittard notes one exception is Apple, where the company has been hit hard by production lockdowns in China.

Time to take money off the table

Pittard believes it’s time to “take a little bit of money off the table” when it comes to energy stocks.

“I’m only talking about a couple of percentage points, and I’d use that to invest in the 2022 losers — that’s companies like Netflix, Warner Bros, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon,” he says.

Pittard uses Meta, which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, to illustrate his point.

“After Meta’s earnings result its share price jumped 25 per cent. That’s because it was beaten down so much in 2022 – it fell nearly 65 per last year.

“When Meta said advertising revenue wasn’t as bad as people had thought, and they’re taking cost cutting measures and reducing capital expenditure, the share price surged.

“In summary, you want to be fully invested,” Pittard says.

“Earnings are coming through better-than-expected. There’s a lot of hurt in the market already from what happened last year.”

But investors need to be selective.

“You want to keep your financials because the recession will be mild. You want to keep your industrials because of the re-shoring that’s going on.

And you can be selective in technology and consumer discretionary.

“Investors should use the strength of their energy investments to rotate into some of those assets. “

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About Ashley Pittard and Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Ashley Pittard leads Pendal’s Global Equities investment boutique. He is responsible for setting the strategy, processes and risk management for the boutique and its funds including Pendal Concentrated Global Share (COGS) Fund.

Ashley has more than 24 years of finance experience, including roles in petroleum economics, global energy investment analysis and 20 years as a global equities fund manager.

Pendal COGS Fund is an actively managed, concentrated portfolio of global shares diversified across a broad range of global sharemarkets.

Find out more about Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

In 2023, Pendal became part of Perpetual Limited (ASX:PPT), bringing together two of Australia’s most respected active asset management brands to create a global leader in multi-boutique asset management with autonomous, world-class investment capabilities and a growing leadership position in ESG.

Contact a Pendal key account manager here.

A US recession is highly likely, but it will be shallow and provide compelling valuations for global equities investors, says Pendal’s ASHLEY PITTARD

• US recession is highly likely but should be shallow
• Invest through it with 2022 losers such as Amazon and Netflix
• Find out about Ashley Pittard’s Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

A US recession is likely this year – but won’t be as bad as previous downturns, ironically because of Covid and the deterioration of global trade flows in recent years.

That’s the view of Pendal’s head of global equities Ashley Pittard.

“It’s highly, highly likely that there’s going to be a US recession this year,” says Pittard.

“But there’s a difference this time around because of robust capital expenditure. It’s clear this recession is going to be shallow.”

“Yes, we are going to have a recession – but so what? Invest through it, because valuations are compelling.

“There’s been a de-rating of the market and we are going to have earnings growth when we get out of this downturn.

“Inflation has peaked and is on the decline and the Fed is nearly finished raising rates.”

Onshoring drives economy

Breaking that comment down, Pittard says the trend towards onshoring of manufacturing in major economies, including the US, is driving economic activity.

Onshoring is a direct result of the disruption of trade flows — firstly from a deterioration in international relations between major players such as the US and China, and secondly from Covid-induced shutdowns to shipping.

Add in big tax incentives from Washington — particularly for infrastructure and manufacturers via the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 — and there’s plenty of reason to think some sectors of the US economy will do well, Pittard says.

“Just look at what’s happened in 2023 so far – the market is up 5 or 6 per cent,” Pittard says.

“Why? Well markets pre-empt. Investors are saying there probably will be a recession around the middle of the year.

“But by that time the Federal Reserve will have stopped raising interest rates. All the news about the recession the market already knows — and so has priced it in.”

Earnings decline priced in

Knowledge is flowing through in earnings estimates for 2023, which forecast a fall in income of somewhere between 4 and 10 per cent.

“Let’s say the average is 7 per cent or 9 per cent if you strip out energy,” says Pittard.

“The market has already taken all that into consideration. Right now, on a price-to-earnings multiple, the market is very close to the long-term average.

“Investors are saying ‘yes, earnings will be down’ …. and they’ve brought the PE multiple back four points, from 21 to 17 points.

“But once we get through a mild recession our earnings growth on a three-to-five-year horizon should be pretty good.

“That’s because of capital expenditure. It’s also because of the unemployment rate which is around 3.5 per cent. Even if it went to 6 per cent, that’s still historically low.

“And wages growth is averaging 5 per cent and it’s not going away. Meanwhile, supply chain inflation is reducing, and commodity inflation has declined dramatically.”

What it means for investors

The obvious question is: ‘where should investors be thinking about putting their money?’

“Last year we were pushing the Covid losers – financials and energy — and they’ve done very well.

“Going forward you still want some of those names, but also you need some of the 2022 losers.

“Names like Amazon, Netflix and other media streaming assets. You’ll want to be fully invested.

“You want to have Covid losers plus selective 2022 losers.”

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About Ashley Pittard and Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Ashley Pittard leads Pendal’s Global Equities investment boutique. He is responsible for setting the strategy, processes and risk management for the boutique and its funds including Pendal Concentrated Global Share (COGS) Fund.

Ashley has more than 24 years of finance experience, including roles in petroleum economics, global energy investment analysis and 20 years as a global equities fund manager.

Pendal COGS Fund is an actively managed, concentrated portfolio of global shares diversified across a broad range of global sharemarkets.

Find out more about Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

Contact a Pendal key account manager here.