Softer-than-expected inflation data for April has lifted hopes of a rate pause, even as services inflation stays stubbornly elevated. TIM HEXT breaks down the latest data release.
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- Browse Pendal’s fixed interest funds
April inflation. Elevated but not accelerating.
THE ABS today released the April monthly CPI numbers. Prices compared to April 2025 (called year-on-year) were 4.2% higher, against expectations of 4.4%. This was lower than the 4.6% in March.
Non-seasonally adjusted prices were 0.4% higher than March, although closer to flat if adjusted (the ABS is still refining their seasonality for monthly numbers).
Trimmed mean inflation was 3.4% in the 12 months since April 2025, up slightly from 3.3% in March.
So overall it is fair to describe inflation as elevated but peaking.
The RBA in its recent forecast update expect headline inflation at 4.8% by the end of June and 4% by the end of the year. These may prove too high, barring new major Middle East disruptions.
What can we learn from the details?
A key focus for nearer term inflation is the so called second round impacts of fuel price increases. The RBA provided this useful graph in its recent Monetary Policy Statement:

Apart from travel, the impact is limited but not zero. This was backed up by today’s numbers. Added to this, free transport in Victoria and now Tasmania (joining the 50 cent Queensland fares) saw urban transport fall by 20%.
In addition, the ABS recently did a survey of the impact of fuel increases on businesses. Nearly half have absorbed the costs, at least for now. These were the responses:
Housing and medical costs though remain worryingly elevated and leave us pessimistic that services overall will fall below 4% any time soon. For example, health insurance premiums averaged 4.4% higher in their April annual increase.
What does this mean for markets?
We get the Q2 inflation numbers in late July just ahead of the RBA meeting in August. For now, trimmed mean looks like being around 1%, following on from the Q1 result of 0.9%.
Clearly this is too high, but it would leave annual trimmed mean at 3.7%, slightly below the RBA forecast of 3.8%.
Uncertainty remains high for now courtesy of the Middle East. However, combined with the deteriorating employment and now housing outlook (post-budget) we think the RBA may be on hold for the remainder of the year.
Despite this week’s rally, with slightly less than one more hike priced in we think the bond market still offers some value.
Find out about
Pendal Government Bond Fund
Tim Hext, Head of Government Bond Strategies
If you’d like to hear more about how Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest team is positioning for this environment, please contact us through our accounts team
About Tim Hext and Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest boutique
Tim Hext is a Pendal portfolio manager and head of government bond strategies in our Income and Fixed Interest team.
Tim has extensive experience in banking, financial markets and funding including senior positions with NSW Treasury Corporation (TCorp), Westpac Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Deutsche Bank, Bain & Co and Swiss Bank Corporation.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
About Pendal
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
In 2023, Pendal became part of Perpetual Limited (ASX:PPT), bringing together two of Australia’s most respected active asset management brands to create a global leader in multi-boutique asset management with autonomous, world-class investment capabilities and a growing leadership position in ESG.
Get to know CHRIS LEES, a London-based senior portfolio manager with our affiliate asset manager J O Hambro
ALONG with Nudgem Richyal, Chris is a co-portfolio manager of Pendal Global Select Fund.
J O Hambro is an equities specialist asset manager with international capabilities across Global and International, UK, Europe, Asia and emerging markets.
The Pendal Global Select Fund offers access to a professionally managed portfolio of global shares and the potential for long-term capital growth.
Pendal and J O Hambro are part of Perpetual Group.
In this video, Chris discusses the team’s approach to portfolio management and how they screen new investments.
Learn more about Pendal Global Select Fund: https://pendalgroup.com/global-equities/pendal-global-select-fund
Highlights:
0.37 What type of investor has the fund been designed for?
1.17 How do you approach portfolio management?
1.57 How do you screen new investments?
Find out about
Pendal Global
Select Fund
Chris Lees & Nudgem Richyal,
Senior Fund Managers
About Chris Lees and Nudgem Richyal
Chris Lees and Nudgem Richyal are senior fund managers of Pendal Global Select Fund. The pair have been working together as investment managers for more than 20 years.
Chris has more than 32 years of investment industry experience. He joined Pendal Group’s UK-based asset manager J O Hambro Capital Management (JOHCM) in 2008 after spending 19 years at Baring Asset Management, ultimately as head of its global sector team.
Nudgem has 22 years of industry experience, joining JOHCM with Chris in 2008. He was previously an investment director with the Global Equity Group of Baring Asset Management, where he worked closely with Chris since 2001.
Pendal Australian Long/Short Fund (APIR: RFA0064AU)
The Pendal Australian Long/Short Fund (the Fund) offers investors an actively managed portfolio of Australian shares investing in both long and short positions.
The Fund primarily invests in Australian listed shares but may also have a small allocation in shares of companies that are expected to be listed on an exchange within 12 months. This includes investments in private companies who are intending to list but have not yet issued a prospectus (pre‑IPO shares) as well as shares in companies that are issued under a prospectus and in the process of an initial public offering (IPO shares).
What is changing?
From 26 May 2026, the Fund will only invest in IPO shares.
The Fund will no longer invest in pre‑IPO shares. As the Fund has not invested in pre‑IPO shares for over ten years, a review of its investment strategy has determined that investing in these types of securities is no longer required.
Questions?
If you have any questions, please contact our Investor Relations Team during business hours Monday to Friday on 1300 346 821.
Unlike green bonds, social bonds fund outcomes that are harder to define, track and compare – which makes rigorous impact reporting both more complex and more important. Pendal sustainable finance and impact investing director MURRAY ACKMAN explains
- Social outcomes vary widely across projects
- Actual outcomes matter more than projections
- Learn more about Regnan Credit Impact Trust
Collecting impact data for social bonds is inherently more challenging than for green bonds, and this is particularly evident when reporting outcomes for Regnan Credit Impact Trust.
Green bonds tend to finance projects with relatively fungible and comparable outcomes.
Whether funding a wind farm in Australia or Europe, the underlying metrics are well established: installed capacity, electricity generated, and emissions avoided.
These outcomes are physical, annualised and repeatable.
Issuers are generally able to report them in a consistent and comparable format over time. The link between capital deployed and environmental outcome is relatively direct.
Social bonds operate very differently.
They finance a wide and diverse set of activities, ranging from social housing and healthcare to education, financial inclusion and food security.
These projects are highly context specific and often target different populations, geographies and social needs.
As a result, the indicators used to report social impact vary significantly between issuers and even between projects within the same bond program.
While international frameworks[1] encourage transparency and standardisation, they also recognise that social outcomes are harder to define, measure and aggregate in a consistent way.
In practice, issuers may report qualitative outcomes, high level beneficiary counts, or indicators that are not reported at the granularity required for portfolio level aggregation.
In some cases, data is disclosed at an issuer or program level rather than being clearly attributable to a specific bond.

Find out about
Regnan Credit Impact Trust
George Bishay, Head of Credit and Sustainable Strategies
Engagement helps close social reporting gaps
Addressing these gaps is an ongoing part of our engagement with issuers, particularly where reporting practices are still evolving.
A further challenge is the distinction between projected and actual impact. For many social projects, outcomes take years to materialise.
A training program aimed at improving access to finance for rural women, for example, may have long term benefits that cannot be quantified in the early years of a bond’s life.
Unlike a physical asset, social change is rarely linear or immediate.
For this reason, the funds take a deliberately conservative approach to outcome reporting.
We report only outcomes that we know have occurred, based on actual data rather than projections.
This ensures that clients can clearly see what their capital has contributed to in practice, even if the full social value created extends beyond what can be captured on a calculator.
Where impact cannot yet be quantified, it remains very real and continues to inform both our investment decisions and our ongoing engagement with issuers.
Below is a list of bonds that include social projects.
Source: Pendal
[1] International Capital Market Association
About Murray Ackman and Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique
Sustainable finance and impact investing director Murray Ackman joined Pendal in 2020 to provide fundamental credit analysis and integrate Environmental, Social and Governance factors across credit funds.
Murray has worked as a consultant measuring ESG for family offices and private equity firms and was a Research Fellow at the Institute for Economics and Peace where he led research on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia. In 2020 the team won the Australian Fixed Interest category in the Zenith awards.
Regnan Credit Impact Trust is a defensive investment strategy that puts capital to work for positive change
Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund is an Aussie bond fund that aims to outperform its benchmark while targeting environmental and social outcomes via a portion of its holdings.
What property investors should know about the CGT reset | Data centres spark small cap opportunities | The ASX midcaps tipped to benefit from retirement shake-up
The Federal Budget’s proposed changes would reduce the after-tax appeal of investing in established residential property, argues Pendal’s JULIA FORREST.
- CGT discount replaced; indexation plus 30 per cent floor
- Negative gearing removed for new existing-home investors
- Find out more about the Pendal Property Securities Fund
THE Federal Budget’s 2026 package targets two of the biggest tax settings underpinning residential property investment – negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount – in a bid to shift investor demand away from established dwellings and toward new housing supply.
The negative gearing change is proposed to apply to purchases of existing residential property where the contract is entered into after 7:30pm on 12 May 2026. The CGT changes are proposed to apply from 1 July 2027, giving the market a lead time that could influence investor behaviour well before the start date.
What’s changing
Under the proposal, negative gearing concessions would be withdrawn for investors buying existing residential property from 7:30pm on 12 May 2026. Existing negatively geared investments in residential property are expected to be grandfathered until disposal.
From 1 July 2027, the long‑running 50 per cent CGT discount would be replaced with an inflation indexation approach, so tax is levied on real gains, with a minimum 30 per cent tax rate payable.
Residential property investments held at 1 July 2027 and sold after that time will have the gain that accrued up to 1 July 2027 treated under the 50 per cent CGT discount method and the gain that accrued after that time to the date of sale will be treated under the indexation method.
The 30 per cent minimum tax would apply to the indexed gain.
For investments in new residential properties from 1 July 2027, investors will be able to choose either the 50 per cent CGT discount, or the indexation method with the minimum tax 30 per cent tax rate.

Find out about
Pendal Property Securities Fund
Julia Forrest, Portfolio Manager
How it may hit investor returns – and prices
By reducing the after‑tax value of losses and capital gains, the Budget proposals lowers what an investor will rationally pay for established stock.
“As an incoming purchaser will not benefit from the preferential tax treatment it is possible this will be reflected in a lower price paid,” says Julia Forrest, co-portfolio manager of Pendal Property Securities Fund.
“Treasury estimates house price growth to be 2 per cent lower as a result.”
A likely behavioural response, according to Forrest, is a tilt toward longer holding periods, particularly where investors aim to spread transaction costs and the new CGT settings across a longer timeframe.
Winners and losers: New supply in focus
While the negative gearing changes only apply to existing residential property and won’t impact other asset classes, the CGT changes apply to all investments.
Forrest says the minimum 30 per cent CGT tax rate on indexed capital gains may work in favour of dividend stocks over growth stocks.
Meanwhile, the favourable tax treatment benefit for new residential property that genuinely adds to supply should support residential property developers.
“The new rules redirect investor capital away from established property. We note that only 5 per cent of new investor lending finances new builds so this may change the flow of credit,” explains Forrest.
“The changes genuinely seek to increase the supply of housing which ultimately is a positive outcome.
“However, slower house price growth may impact discretionary spending, with the lower wealth effect.”
Forrest says the Pendal Property Security Fund is weighted towards residential developers of affordable dwellings, land lease developers and non-discretionary retail and malls.
About Julia Forrest and Pendal Property Securities Fund
Julia Forrest is a portfolio manager with Pendal’s Australian Equities team. Julia has managed Pendal’s property trust portfolios for more than a decade and has 25 years of experience in equities research and advisory, initial public offerings and capital raisings.
Pendal Property Securities Fund invests mainly in Australian listed property securities including listed property trusts, developers and infrastructure investments.
About Pendal Group
Pendal is an Australian investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
Australia’s AI moment is arriving – and the data centre build-out is the tell. Pendal Smaller Companies Fund portfolio manager PATRICK TEODOROWSKI outlines what is driving the surge and where the opportunities are emerging
- Data centre builds surge in Australia
- Small caps, copper and uranium stand out
- Find out about the Pendal Smaller Companies Fund
THE boost in growth and investment from the large hyperscalers in the US has been evident for some time, but in just the past couple of weeks, two data centre providers alone have announced 50 per cent growth in Australian data centre capacity.
NextDC (ASX:NXT) announced a 250-megawatt contract, with a planned capex spend of $4 billion in 2027, and CDC Data Centres secured Australia’s largest ever data centre contract – a 555-megawatt deal, also with a planned $4 billion capex spend in 2027.
Morgan Stanley estimates around $8-10 billion in data centre capex will be spent out to the end of the decade, but Pendal Smaller Companies Fund portfolio manager Patrick Teodorowski believes that the actual amount could be materially higher.
“We think they’ve massively underestimated the amount of spend that’s happening,” Teodorowski says.
Pendal research estimates that up to $100 billion in data centre capex will be rolled out between 2026 and 2030.
“If you average that out, it’s $25 billion per annum that needs to be spent for them to meet those targets,” explains Teodorowski.
The Australian data centre market is tipped to reach 3,700 megawatts by 2030.
“The surge in growth and investment from the large hyperscalers out of the US is going to go from about a quarter of a trillion dollars a year to over a trillion dollars, and it feels like finally Australia is going to join the party,” says Teodorowski.
“This is something you have to pay attention to. This is going to throw up a lot of investment opportunity.”
The biggest components of a data centre build are the electrical and cooling.
“Sixty to 80 per cent of the site capital expenditure is actually on electrification and cooling, and we think we’ve found some interesting opportunities that will benefit from that,” says Teodorowski.
Where small caps can plug into the build-out
One of those opportunities is commercial construction company Shape (ASX:SHA), which provides fit-outs, remedials and new build solutions.
Historically Shape had a large presence in the office space, but the company has now won a number of data centre fit-out contracts.
For one of the company’s builds, Shape subcontracted Southern Cross Electrical (ASX:SXE).
“Southern Cross Electrical does about $150 million of revenue per annum. The company is seeing an immediate opportunity pipeline of up to a billion dollars,” notes Teodorowski.
“So today it’s about 15 to 20 per cent of their business, but we can see that growing significantly and being the primary driver for their growth over the next three years.”
Another small cap catching the tailwinds of the AI capex explosion is NRW Holdings (ASX:NWH) thanks to its acquisition of electrical and mechanical contractor Fredon about a year ago.
“About a third of their business is within data centres, and they’ve recently made some announcements. They’re building data centres for the Australian Defence Force at a number of sites across Australia, and they also build for the private sector as well,” says Teodorowski.
Pendal Smaller Companies Fund holds a position in SHA, SXE and NWH.
Copper and uranium in focus
The rapid rise of data centres will, in turn, also significantly increase power demand.
Some analysts estimate power demand across the US will double from 6 per cent to 12 per cent over the next five years.
Teodorowski sees similar growth in Australia. Alongside that is the necessary network to support that surge in power demand. That’s where copper becomes a big part of the story.
Copper demand is forecast to grow more than 50 per cent over the next 10 to 15 years at the same time production is heading in the opposite direction.
“Growing copper production has been something that’s been very troublesome over the last decade,” explains Teodorowski.
“This year, I think the forecast is for declining copper production, and the number of large-scale discoveries has been in decline for decades. So we think it’s a very good setup for that commodity.”
This means producers like Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC) and Develop Global (ASX:DVP), and small caps with high-grade projects of significance like Firefly Metals (ASX:FFM), will likely be among the beneficiaries of this thematic.
The push for cleaner baseload power is also driving an increase in commodities like uranium, particularly across the US where several major tech companies are sourcing clean energy to power their operations.
Microsoft agreed to spend US$1.6 billion for a 20-year supply of power from the restarted Three Mile Island nuclear power facility. Meta, meanwhile, inked a 20-year power deal with Constellation for its data centres, and Amazon has agreed to buy up to 1,920 megawatts of nuclear power from Talen.
This is set to benefit companies like Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) – the largest ASX-listed uranium producer, Nexgen (ASX:NXG), which owns the largest undeveloped global uranium deposit, and emerging producer Bannerman Energy (ASX:BNM).
Pendal Smaller Companies Fund holds a position in CSC, DVP, FFM, PDN, NXG and BNM.

Find out about
Pendal Smaller Companies Fund
Patrick Teodorowski & Lewis Edgley,
Portfolio Managers
About Lewis Edgley and Patrick Teodorowski
Lewis and Patrick are co-managers of Pendal Smaller Companies Fund.
Portfolio manager Lewis Edgley co-manages Pendal’s Australian smaller companies and micro-cap funds and conducts analysis on a range of smaller companies. He joined the Pendal Smaller Companies team in 2013 as an analyst, before being promoted to the role of portfolio manager in 2018. Lewis brings 20 years of industry experience with previous roles spanning equities research, as well as commercial and investment banking roles at Westpac and Commonwealth Bank.
Portfolio manager Patrick Teodorowski co-manages Pendal’s smaller companies and micro-cap funds and conducts analysis on a range of smaller companies. He joined Pendal in 2005 and developed his career as a highly regarded small cap analyst. Patrick holds a Bachelor of Commerce (1st class Honours) from the University of Queensland and is a CFA Charterholder.
About Pendal Smaller Companies Fund
Pendal Smaller Companies Fund is an actively managed portfolio investing in ASX and NZX-listed companies outside the top 100. Co-managers Lewis Edgley and Patrick Teodorowski look for companies they believe are trading below their assessed valuation and are expected to grow profit quickly. Lewis and Patrick together have more than 40 years of investment experience.
Find out about Pendal Smaller Companies Fund
Find out about Pendal MicroCap Opportunities Fund
Find out about Pendal MidCap Fund
About Pendal Group
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns through active management.
In 2023, Pendal became part of Perpetual Limited (ASX:PPT), bringing together two of Australia’s most respected active asset management brands.
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week according to Pendal portfolio manager JIM TAYLOR. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams
THE key building blocks of the positive investment backdrop remain in place.
First, the US labour market continues to hold up very well, with minimal signs of AI disruption leading to job shedding.
Second, April retail sales suggest the consumer remains resilient with tax refunds bolstering economic activity.
Absent the Iran conflict, it is highly likely we would have been upgrading economic growth on the back of consumer strength, the uptick in manufacturing, and the stimulus from AI spending.
The main dark cloud is the prospect of higher inflation as surging energy prices flow into the far corners of the economy.
An incredibly strong 1Q26 US reporting season – where earnings grew 28% – reflects the strength of underlying activity and the commensurate ability of corporates to pass through higher costs into the consumer base.
The hottish US producer price index (PPI) data last week partially undermined the positive narrative and saw the market shift to expectations towards an interest rate hike over the course of the year. US 10-year bond yields rose 23 basis points (bps), while the S&P 500 gained 0.2%.
Domestically, the budget was well flagged but does have the possibility of stifling housing activity. On an economy-wide perspective, this could overwhelm the benefits to the first homebuyers the government is attempting to assist. The S&P/ASX 300 was off 1.2% for the week.
US President Donald Trump’s visit to Chinese President Xi Jinping has come and gone with pronouncements on Boeing sales, a Board of Trade and Investments, and some additional agricultural and energy purchases. But there was nothing conclusive on Nvidia chips and a resolution to the Middle East standoff.
Trump is contending with approval ratings among Republicans at all-time lows, on the back of a foreign war and rising domestic inflation.
It is hard to see his Administration allowing the current situation to drag on; it feels like something needs to give in the near-term. At the moment rising yields, rate expectations and the oil price move all point to a market that expects hostilities with Iran to renew now that Trump is back in the US.
Macro and policy US
Inflation
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.64% month/month in April, versus +0.87% in March and a median forecast of +0.60%. The Core measure was +0.38% for April, versus a median forecast of +0.3% and a 0.20% gain in March.
On an annual basis, the CPI was +3.81% for April, up from +3.26% in March. Core was +2.75% year/year, a touch ahead of the median forecast (+2.70%) and up from +2.60% in March.
The three-month annualised CPI has dipped below the Fed’s 2% target a few times, but the six-month annualised and the 12-month rate never got there – and are now rising again on the back of energy prices and cost-pass through.
The greater surprise was in PPI, where headline rose 1.4% month/month in April well ahead of the +0.5% consensus expectation. It is at +6.0% year/year.
The Core measure rose 1.0%, up from +0.2% in March, the largest gain since March 2022 on the back of a concentrated energy price shock. Consensus was expecting +0.3%. It is at +5.2% year/year.
April’s rise was also driven by a 0.7% rise in the core goods prices component and +1.2% in prices for services, excluding trade services. Transportation and warehousing services prices jumped by 5.0%.
Trade services prices, which reflects the difference between the cost for distributors to buy goods and the price they charge to customers, rose 2.7% in April. Retailers seem to have been able to take advantage of consumer strength, driven in turn by tax refunds.
The big question is whether this is a material, one-off step-up in the PPI – or the start of a sequence of big increases.
Retail sales
Headline retail sales rose by 0.5% (+0.7% ex-autos) in April, in line with the consensus.
February and March sales – already strong – were also revised up a further 0.2% and demonstrate consumer resilience despite the energy shock.
There was a 0.8% gain in food and beverage sales, driven mainly by higher prices.
However non-store sales rose 1.1%, also driving the headline gain, but suggesting demand also remains strong given that consumer prices for core goods ex-autos didn’t change much last month.
Individual income tax refunds in April were US$22 billion higher than in the same month last year. This is equivalent to roughly 3% of monthly retail sales. That said the rise in total spending on gasoline is estimated to be only slightly less.
Tax refunds are likely to fall away sharply after May, meaning that the consumer loses the buffer against higher energy prices. The market will be focused on consumer activity levels from here.
The Fed
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that while she still expects inflation linked to the conflict to subside – and that underlying inflation was still heading lower – “the probability around that has declined”.
She noted that there were other “less benign” scenarios that would require rate hikes.
She is watching:
- Most importantly, households’ and businesses’ expectations of future inflation, which have drifted to the high end of their historical range.
- Whether price pressures spread beyond energy to other goods and services.
- The extent to which tariffs continue to pass through the price chain.
Wages aren’t a significant source of inflation, she said.
Macro and policy Australia
The Federal budget flagged more spending on defence and public hospitals, funded largely by changes to the NDIS.
It was interesting to note on the revenue side that a material amount of projections (~$15 billion between FY26 and FY30) is assigned to “decisions taken but not yet announced and not for publication”, suggesting a new policy waits in the wings.
There is risk of unintended consequences from the proposed changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing – potentially from first home buyers being crowded out of new builds by investors and/or reduced renovation and remodelling activity from lower turnover in investment properties.
We saw how policy changes can have unintended effects in Victoria, where increased land tax rates, taxes on vacant homes and windfall gains, increased stamp duties and the short stay accommodation levy resulted in material declines in confidence and activity levels in the state’s property sector.
Investors have been the key driver of accelerating bank sector mortgage growth. New investor loan commitments for purchases of established and new dwellings fell in the quarter, while growth slowed for dwelling construction.
With interest rates higher and changes to CGT and negative gearing announced, investor loan commitments are likely to fall in the coming months, sharpening focus around the outlook for banks.

Find out about
Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Crispin Murray, Head of Equities
Markets
US earnings
US Q1 earnings season observations:
- The blended earnings growth rate for Q1 S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) currently stands at 27.7%, versus 13.2% expected at the end of the quarter.
- The blended revenue growth rate is 11.4%.
- 91% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with 84% beating consensus EPS expectations (the one-year average is 79% and five-year is 78%.)
- 80% have surpassed consensus sales expectations (73% one-year average and 70% five-year.)
- In aggregate, earnings are 17.9% above expectations, above the 7.2% one-year average positive surprise rate and the five-year average of 7.3%.
- In aggregate, sales are 1.8% above expectations, above the 1.6% one-year positive surprise rate but below the five-year average of 2.0%.
Much of the recent US equity market momentum has corresponded with surging near-term earnings estimates.
Bottom-up consensus estimates for S&P 500 EPS in 2026 and 2027 have each risen by 8% YTD.
That said, increasing expectations for AI capex spending and higher energy prices have driven the majority of the positive revisions. Excluding AI infrastructure and Energy companies, S&P 500 2027 EPS estimates have been flat YTD.
In small caps, the median stock in the Russell 3000 is delivering 10% EPS growth – the strongest rate in four years.
EPS revision breadth during the past month has been positive in every S&P 500 sector. The sectors and stocks with the strongest earnings revisions have generally outperformed.
Australian bank reporting and updates
Bank reporting season flagged a couple of things worth thinking about.
There was a surprising decline in sequential revenue growth rates from the December 2025 quarter to the March 2026 quarter.
In February the banks reported strong revenue growth and benign credit issues resulting in ~4-6% EPS upgrades.
In the recent crop of updates the revenue line weakened, asset quality turned down and the banks began rebuilding collective provisions.
This has now fully unwound the EPS upgrades from the Feb 2026 reporting season.
About Jim Taylor and Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Drawing on more than 25 years of experience investing in top-performing Australian companies and a background in accounting, Jim manages our Long/Short Fund and co-manages our Imputation Fund. He is a Chartered Accountant with membership of the Australian Institute of Chartered Accountants.
Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund is managed by Crispin Murray. The fund has beaten its benchmark in 14 years of its 18-year history (after fees), across a range of market conditions.
Find out more about Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund here.
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
MTR Corporation’s inaugural green bond is mobilising capital to scale low-carbon transport and energy smart urban infrastructure.
- MTR green bond funds low-carbon transport
- Proceeds support rail upgrades, renewables, resilience
- Find out more about Pendal’s Responsible Investing capabilities
Regnan Credit Impact Trust and Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund invested in MTR Corporation’s inaugural green bond, which directs proceeds toward a portfolio of low‑carbon transport and energy‑efficient urban infrastructure.
MTR is recognised as a global leader in electrified mass transit, carrying around 6.5 million passenger journeys each week across its networks, including in the Sydney and Melbourne metros.
The green bond finances and refinances eligible green investments under MTR’s Sustainable Finance Framework, with proceeds expected to support a range of climate‑aligned projects.
This includes major rail line extensions in Hong Kong, station energy‑efficiency upgrades, low‑carbon building improvements, renewable energy installations, biodiversity and conservation initiatives, and climate‑resilience works.
Several near‑term projects are likely to be funded through this issuance, including rail expansion programs that increase public transport capacity in new growth districts, replacement of older rolling stock and equipment with more efficient alternatives, and upgrades to station infrastructure aimed at reducing operational energy use.
The bond may also finance enhancements to MTR’s extensive property portfolio, where the company is targeting substantial reductions in scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity by 2030, as well as water and waste‑management improvements across its network.
This bond is significant as it supports one of the world’s most heavily used public transport systems, where scale magnifies climate benefits.
Hong Kong relies on public transport for roughly 11.7 million trips per day, and rail accounts for around 44 per cent of domestic journeys.
Improvements funded through this green bond help avoid emissions by shifting more commuters onto efficient rail networks, reducing road congestion, and accelerating energy‑efficiency gains across MTR’s operations.
These projects contribute to MTR’s science‑based targets, which include reducing well‑to‑wheel rail transport emissions by 46.2 per cent per passenger‑kilometre by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
Source: https://www.mtr.com.hk/sustainability/assets/pdf/en/2024/MTR_Sustainable_Finance_Rpt_2024.pdf

Find out about
Pendal Sustainable
Australian Fixed Interest Fund
George Bishay, Head of Credit and Sustainable Strategies
About George Bishay and Pendal
George Bishay is Pendal’s head of credit and sustainable strategies. George’s investment management career spans over 30 years with Pendal and its predecessor firms.
He has also worked across numerous fixed income, credit and money market portfolios in portfolio management, credit analysis and dealing roles for 27 years.
In 2019 George was awarded the Alpha Manager status by Money Management publisher FE fundinfo.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
Pendal is an Australia-based investment management business focused on delivering superior returns for our clients through active management.
Pendal funds have backed one of ANZ’s SDG bonds – fast-tracking finance into clean energy, climate and social-impact projects.
- ANZ bonds back climate and social outcomes
- Two thirds of funding directed to Australia
- Find out more about Pendal’s Responsible Investing capabilities
Regnan Credit Impact Trust and Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund invested in the ANZ Banking Group’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Bond 2031, which allocates proceeds toward a diversified portfolio of social and environmental lending activities aligned with the United Nations SDGs.
Proceeds from ANZ’s SDG bonds are used to fund or refinance eligible assets with a strong emphasis on climate action, sustainable cities, clean energy and positive social outcomes.
The bond finances a broad range of projects, with approximately 80 per cent of proceeds allocated to environmental activities and around 20 per cent to social outcomes.
Around two thirds of funding has been directed to projects based in Australia.
On the environmental side, the bond supports the financing of more than 360 large scale renewable energy projects across Australia, India, Hong Kong and other regions. These include wind farms, solar projects and battery energy storage systems.
One example is the development, construction and operation of the 252-megawatt Wambo Stage I and 254-megawatt Wambo Stage II wind farms in south-east Queensland.
Examples of social projects supported include the operation of specialist disability accommodation across Australia, comprising nearly 1,000 beds, as well as the construction of a further 106 specialist disability accommodation homes providing around 350 beds.
The bond has also supported the delivery of more than 1,200 dwellings to be used as social and affordable housing. Investing in an ANZ SDG bond provides exposure to a high-quality Australian bank while directing capital toward a wide range of activities that support climate stability, social inclusion and sustainable economic development.
Source: https://www.anz.com/content/dam/anzcom/debtinvestors/sdg-bond-impact-report-september-2025.pdf

Find out about
Regnan Credit Impact Trust
George Bishay, Head of Credit and Sustainable Strategies
About George Bishay and Pendal
George Bishay is Pendal’s head of credit and sustainable strategies. George’s investment management career spans over 30 years with Pendal and its predecessor firms.
He has also worked across numerous fixed income, credit and money market portfolios in portfolio management, credit analysis and dealing roles for 27 years.
In 2019 George was awarded the Alpha Manager status by Money Management publisher FE fundinfo.
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