• Run in markets has made many equity markets, styles and sectors expensive.
• Niche opportunities are available but beware some emerging markets.
• COVID Delta-variant and moreover future variants the big unknown.

ECONOMIC data out of Australia and many parts of the globe have been very positive for most of the past year, albeit from a low base. Equity markets have responded positively, and markets have run sharply higher.

Wall Street is up close to 40 per cent over the past year. European markets have also improved though not to the same extent. London’s FTSE is up more than 8 per cent. Germany’s DAX and the broad based STOXX Europe 600 are both around 20 per cent higher.

It’s the same story in Asian markets, with Japan’s Nikkei up 30 per cent, and markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai 20 per cent higher than a year ago. The local S&P/ASX-200 is 25 per cent higher.

“The strong growth, particularly in the employment market, has been quite remarkable,” says Michael Blayney (pictured above), head of the Multi-Assets team at Pendal. “But what you are seeing now in equity markets is that most of that good news is priced in. In fact, some are starting to look considerably expensive.”

When allocating capital, Blayney is now looking for more niche opportunities. While there’s been broad-based increases over the past year, there’s less opportunity in doing that going forward.

“We’ve had a handful of assets like Mexican equities, listed property and dividend futures in Europe. We have quite a bit of exposure to small caps as well. They are much more bespoke investments,” Blayney says. “Where our mandate allows, we’ve shifted active risk taking from outright equity exposure – and are now focused on trades linked to the reopening rotation into value opportunities.

“We’ve got this combination of good economics and good momentum. But valuations are getting a bit toppy. At this point in the cycle, we are looking at more bespoke trades and relative value opportunities.”

At this time of the cycle, emerging markets are often nominated as opportunities for asset allocation. But Blayney points out that not all opportunities in emerging markets are the same.

 “If you look at China, it’s actually a bit expensive. It’s one of the few markets in the world where we’ve seen downward earnings revisions and that’s a bit unique at the moment.  The Chinese economy is weakening to the extent that we may soon see an easing of policy.  As a result, we are a little bit more cautious on China.

“Also, there’s structural issues to think about. China has an ageing population. People talk about demographics as benefits of emerging markets, but they aren’t always positive, especially if you look at China and Korea.  For example, demographics in China have deteriorated to such an extent that the regime had to abandon its “one child policy” several years ago, which has now been replaced with a “three child policy”.

“Then there’s Taiwan. They have a lot of exposure to semi-conductors, and that’s relevant from a valuation perspective and also a geopolitical perspective. There is a very limited capacity to produce very high-end semi-conductors and Taiwan, in particular, is sitting on this very important strategic asset,” Blayney says.

“Those sorts of geopolitical risks make you think about whether there could be a major conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan,” Blayney says. “It’s that type of tail risk that current ‘priced for perfection’ valuations in many parts of financial markets globally are ignoring”

* The Pendal Defensive Equity Income Fund closed to applications and reinvestments effective 7 June 2018 and will terminate effective 17 July 2018, with the assets liquidated and the net proceeds returned to investors. More information.

Significant Features: The Pendal Defensive Equity Income Fund aims to provide a consistent monthly income to investors.

Fund Objective: The Fund aims to provide a consistent monthly income plus franking credits; a total return (including franking credits and after fees, costs and taxes) that exceeds the benchmark over rolling 3-year periods; and reduced exposure to the S&P/ASX 200 Index.

• European bourses have long been seen as less attractive equity markets
• Led by banks, many stocks in the region now look undervalued.
• Growth in Europe expected to continue way above trend until beyond 2023.

IT’S BEEN a while since Europe excited global equity investors. For most of the past few decades, there’s always been something a little more exciting – the US, emerging economies, private markets.

But as the world emerges from the COVID pandemic, there’s a whiff of excitement about European equities. And that provides opportunity.

“In my world – continental Europe – earnings forecasts still look very much too low,” says Paul Wild, senior fund manager at JOHCM Global & International Equities. With second quarter earnings season only a fortnight away, Wild expects continued surprises vis-à-vis a year earlier.

“While it’s clear that peak earnings momentum has past, it is still going to remain positive. We could see earnings growth approaching 50 per cent for 2021. Also with European GDP in 2022 likely higher than this year, the earnings outlook stays strong”

Banks and financial companies, like most major markets, are a large part of European equities. But they are behaving atypically at the moment, and that could provide an opportunity.

“The story of European financials is not really yield curve driven at the moment. It’s more about the effects of coming out of the crisis, and that’s about normalising provisions,” Wild says.

Banks increased provisions for bad debts at the beginning of the pandemic, but as the macro environment turned out to be better than forecast, provisioning requirements have fallen. The banks are over-capitalised, Wild says, and that means big dividend payouts later in the year.

The other factor for European (and global) banks is inflation.

“The commentary from the Fed a few weeks ago is far and away the key event of recent times,” Wild says. “The market was very much positioned … for the Fed to let things run hot. But the Fed’s dot plot effectively called for two rate hikes in 2023 – they were much more hawkish than what the market was positioned for. The yield curve flattened.”

The question is: has the market interpreted the Fed correctly?

“It’s very difficult for anyone to make a real call on inflation with absolute convictions at the moment given the transitory effects, given past mistakes it seems unlikely the Fed will be too pre-emptive” Wild says.

“Overall global valuations are pretty high at the moment, but Europe looks quite reasonable versus the MSCI World. Whilst bonds are still priced for the moon,” he says.

“If you buy a Government bond, in many cases you are committing yourself to a negative real return. So, then you look at equities and the cash dividend potential, particularly in Europe. It looks like growth in the region can stay sustainably strong until the back of 2023,” Wild says.

“For so long Europe has just been lacking in any positive theme, and that’s now changed as it emerges stronger from the pandemic.”

About Paul Wild and Pendal global equities strategies

Paul Wild is senior fund manager with J O Hambro Capital Management, a London-based active investment manager which is part of Pendal Group.

Pendal offers a range of global equities strategies to Australian investors including:

• Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund
• Regnan Global Equity Impact Solutions Fund
• Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

Contact a Pendal key account manager here.

Investors who want to make a difference in the world have far more potent weapons at their disposal than merely selling their shares.

• Screening strategies not enough to drive change
• Investors need a new approach – hold and vote
• Exxon Mobil defeat a clarion call for shareholder power

THIS YEAR’s stunning defeat of Exxon Mobil by Engine No.1, a tiny activist fund that resulted in three new directors on the board of one of the world’s largest fossil fuel companies, is the most public example of the rise of a new type of shareholder engagement.

It is expected to accelerate a dawning realisation among investors that when it comes to public equity markets, there are stronger avenues for change than traditional methods of screening and divesting companies.

If every climate-minded investor sold their coal shares, that would leave control of those companies in the hands of the least climate-minded owners.

Susheela Peres da Costa

“But while there are good reasons for an investor to not want to be exposed to fossil fuel assets, it’s another thing altogether to assume a company cares who owns its shares.

“It’s worse than having no impact because it makes for a false sense of security.

“Even if every climate-minded investor sold their coal shares, that would leave control of those companies in the hands of the least climate-minded owners.”

Regnan’s work suggests investors who want to make a difference in the world have far more potent weapons at their disposal than merely selling their shares.

Stewardship initiatives, in which institutions use their investor influence for change, are proving to be a powerful lever.
Investor stewardship can also be successful putting resolutions to boards and reigning in unhelpful corporate influence on government policy.

Advocacy is an area where coalitions of smaller investors can have a real effect, directly asking regulators, industry bodies and governments for change.

And investing in disruption to drive change is also an effective strategy.

But what about small investors without access to these avenues?

“Figure out where your power really is,” says Peres da Costa. “Unless you are an enormous institution, big enough to move market prices, you have much more power as a consumer – what products and services you buy, who from, and whether you are vocal about why.

“So, you say ‘I don’t want my shares ever to be voted in favour of a director who is trying to entrench fossil fuels in the economy’. And you check which financial service providers commit to that before you entrust them with your money.

Peres da Costa points out that this simplifies many of the challenges associated with trying to invest responsibly, by focussing the discussion on what kind of impact investors want to have.

“It’s too easy to get caught up in details when you focus on divestment, or ‘screening’,” Peres da Costa says.

“For instance, should divestment focus on companies that produce fossil fuels? Or firms that burn them, releasing global warming gases into the atmosphere? Are firms that support the fossil fuel supply chain in or out? Coal ports? Gas pipelines? Roadside retailers of petrol?

“Burning fossil fuels is a major part of industries as diverse as energy generation, steelmaking and aviation. Many of the largest organisations involved in fossil fuels are governments; are we divesting airlines and countries too?

“Are all carbon emissions equal? Is coal burnt to make steel for wind turbines worse than lower-carbon oil to air-freight fresh tropical fruit to temperate markets?

“These are often interesting debate topics, but dodge the deeper question most clients are interested in addressing: What does my money do?”

Read more about what investors can do to drive change at The Divestment Dilemma.

About Susheela Peres da Costa

Susheela is Regnan’s head of advisory. She has more than 15 years of domestic and international experience advising institutional investors on responsible investment.

As Head of Advisory, she has assisted small foundations through to the world’s largest institutions, including a successful 18-month project in Switzerland responsible investment leadership for a global full-service bank and strategic advice to the UN-backed Principles for Responsible Investment on upgrading stewardship.

Susheela chairs the Responsible Investment Association of Australasia and is special adviser to the co-chair of the Australian Sustainable Finance Initiative.

About Regnan

Regnan is a responsible investment leader with a long and proud history of providing insight and advice to investors with an interest in long-term, broad-based or values-aligned performance.

Building on that expertise, in 2019 Regnan expanded into responsible investment funds management, backed by the considerable resources of Pendal Group.

Regnan Global Equity Impact Solutions Fund invests in mission-driven companies we believe are well placed to solve the world’s biggest problems, while the Regnan Credit Impact Trust (available in Australia only) invests in cash, fixed and floating rate securities where the proceeds create positive environmental and social change.

Visit Regnan.com

Find out about Regnan Global Equity Impact Solutions Fund

Find out about Regnan Credit Impact Trust

For more information on these and other responsible investing strategies, contact Head of Regnan and Responsible Investment Distribution Jeremy Dean at jeremy.dean@regnan.com.