Amid the noise from earnings season, long-term mid-cap trends continue to provide opportunities for investors. Pendal PM BRENTON SAUNDERS explains

• Beyond the earnings cycle, long-term mid-cap trends provide opportunities
• Data centres, decarbonisation and transition fuels, EVs worth considering
• Find out about Pendal MidCaps Fund

MOST equities investors know they need to look beyond the ASX50 get better exposure to the fastest-growing industries.

We consider the ASX’s midcap space to cover companies in the ASX51-150 – where market caps can typically range from around $1 billion to $10 billion.

These medium-sized companies tend to offer higher earnings growth than large-cap companies, often with less risk than small caps, says Pendal portfolio manager Brenton Saunders, who manages Pendal MidCap Fund.

Three enduring mid-cap themes that offer opportunities for investors over time are data centres, transition fuels and decarbonisation, and electric vehicles, Saunders says.

“These trends are creating high-quality growth metrics that are investable,” he says.

Here’s a quick overview of the three themes:

Data Centres

“Whether we are speaking to software-as-a-service companies or corporates, the whole notion of data migration into the cloud and trying to integrate AI into processes at a meaningful level is ubiquitous,” Saunders says.

Data-centre operators are an integral part of the shift, which provides opportunities for companies like NextDC (ASX:NXT) and among small caps, Macquarie Technology Group (ASX:MAQ), he says. (Pendal holds NXT and MAQ).

“We continue to see inflections in already high rates of adoptions for incremental storage from all the big players in the market like Microsoft, Amazon and Apple.

“On top of that you have demand from governments and corporates.”

The rise of artificial intelligence has accelerated demand for data centres.

“Somebody that might have been looking for 10 megawatts a few years back is now looking for 20 to 25 megawatts.”  

Outside of pure storage and processing of data companies, there are investment opportunities among more progressive users of the available infrastructure, Saunders says.

Pendal-held imaging group Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) is an example, he says. It relies heavily on moving large quantities of data to the cloud, and then being able to access the information quickly.

“The platform that Pro Medicus is using to do that didn’t exist five or ten years ago,” he says.

Other local players using data-centre infrastructure in innovative ways include Wisetech Global (ASX:WTC), Altium (ASX:ALU) and Technology One (ASX:TNE) — all held by Pendal.

Transition fuels and decarbonisation

There is a mismatch in Australia — and globally — between the necessary ramping up of renewable power sources and the planned decommissioning of old forms of generation, Saunders says.

“Annually in Australia, we should be aiming for between four and five gigawatts of renewable power growth every year. At the moment we’re generating a little over one.

“Yet we still plan to decommission a lot of the baseload carbon-based generation.

“From an investment perspective, that fact will continue to create volatility in power markets. The good generators have an opportunity to take advantage of the volatility in markets.

“Companies like AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) and Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) could benefit.”

“There are also the refiners in the market that are priced as if they are going to be defunct in ten years time,” Saunders says, nominating Pendal-held Viva Energy (ASX:VEA) and Ampol (ASX:ALD).

“But we probably won’t reach that point for 15 years or more.

“Their earnings will remain higher for longer. That gives them more opportunity to return capital to shareholders and diversify their businesses in a meaningful way.”

Electric vehicles

“The sector finds itself in all sorts of pain because of over-investment in a group of raw materials, particularly lithium,” Saunders notes.

“But there is absolutely no going back on it.

“It’s going to be cyclical in nature and we are experiencing that now, but it is a thematic that will have duration and opportunity for investors.”

Saunders notes that the shift to electric vehicles is one part of the decarbonisation roadmap on schedule, particularly in China and Scandinavian countries.

“It’s easy to ignore investing in raw materials for EVs because the prices of commodities like lithium, cobalt and nickel are low.

“But we think it’s another thematic that has plenty of durability.”

A number of Aussie mid-cap companies are taking advantage of political and economic reforms taking place in India, says BRENTON SAUNDERS

• Consider ASX midcaps with exposure to India
• Watch a webinar about ASX midcaps and the lithium sector
• Find out about Pendal MidCaps Fund

INDIA’s growth story — propelled by reforms and digitalisation — was recently highlighted by Pendal’s emerging markets team.

But Aussie equities investors need look no further than the local bourse for stocks with exposure to the sub-continent, says Pendal portfolio manager Brenton Saunders.

Saunders, who leads Pendal MidCaps Fund, recently returned from a research trip in India.

“India — a democracy of 1.4 billion people — has had a number of false starts in growth, political and economic reform,” says Saunders. “But now it’s had four or five years of achieving reform.

“Sovereign wealth funds and private equity money is moving into the economy.

“India has a lot of similarities to China in the early 2000s with it’s fast-growing, economically-active population. “

“Right now only about 70 million indians are economically very active — and they’re responsible for the recent growth. But that number is accelerating.”

A growing middle class

On his recent trip, Saunders observed rising literacy rates, improving education standards and a huge, skilled workforce.

“There are a lot of foreign-educated business school graduates and engineers who have returned to India.

“They are very entrepreneurial and successful at sourcing capital and building businesses.”

With a growing middle class, there are opportunities across the economy, from consumption to infrastructure and housing, Sauders says.

ASX-listed stocks with India exposure

Property-focused digital advertising business REA (ASX: REA) — held in Pendal MidCaps Fund — is an example of an ASX-listed mid-cap with a presence in India.  

“REA is taking its home-grown skill set and applying it in a marketplace where private ownership of real estate is still at a formative level, and consumption is growing with demand for new and better housing.

“There’s a lot of technology associated with price discovery and sourcing of properties by commercial and private buyers.

“That’s where REA is strong. It has a powerful, well established, AI-based classifieds platform, which it can leverage into a very fast-growing real estate market that is gaining momentum.

“It’s a small but fast-growing business in India with a very impressive management team.”

While the REA business in India isn’t “needle-moving” yet, it does provide an opportunity for the mid-cap in coming years, Saunders says.

Another Aussie mid-cap operating in India is IDP Education (ASX: IEL), a former Seek-owned operation which listed on the ASX in 2015.

IDP is also held in Pendal MidCaps Fund.

“IEL has established a powerful global students placement business and has a big share in the world’s largest English language proficiency testing business,” Saunders says.

“India makes up the biggest geography for those businesses globally.

It has about half a million students in terms of placements into foreign universities and education facilities. Mostly they are going into Commonwealth countries like Australia, Canada and the UK – all big beneficiaries.

“IEL is by far the largest incumbent and most respected provider in India,” he says.

Competition has increased for IEL with a growing number of well-funded competitors in the space in India.

“That competitive dynamic is still going to play out in terms of placements and English language testing.

“But the system is still growing. There will be a bigger part of the population wanting to become more English proficient and travel for education as GDP per capita continues to increase.

“Remember, there’s 70 million active consumers in the Indian market. You can expect that to double over the next seven or eight years.

“And that provides enormous opportunity for anyone that is well positioned in the Indian marketplace.”

The turmoil at OpenAI suggests investors are better off ignoring ideology and sticking to tested principles that make markets work – profits and self-interest. SAMIR MEHTA explains

• Parallels between OpenAI turmoil and China’s view of the world
• Don’t get captured by ideology: Mehta
• Find out about Samir Mehta’s Pendal Asian Share Fund

HERE’S a puzzle. Name an organisation that would fit under this mission statement:

Prioritising collective welfare over financial gain, and guided by a philosophy that aims to transform society for the greater good, our mission is to create a lasting, positive impact for the people, free from capitalist constraints.

If you said the Chinese Communist Party, you’d be right.

If you said OpenAI, the high profile not-for-profit that tried to oust its CEO two weeks ago — you’d also be right, points out Samir Mehta, who manages Pendal Asian Share Fund.

“Chinese president Xi Jinping has a genuine belief that the Western world is corrupt; the CCP and only the CCP has the moral rectitude to decipher the right way ahead,” says Mehta.

“This means a new world order, away from profit, capitalism and democracy.

“I find it fascinating that OpenAI was formed with somewhat similar intentions of saving humanity.

“But they never considered the fact that doing good for humanity needs a lot of money.”

What we can learn from OpenAI’s failed coup

The ouster of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was engineered by OpenAI board members who feared that his plans for unbridled development of AI technology posed an existential threat to humanity.

Only a non-profit, highly-regulated and collectivist approach by people who know what is good for humanity could safely develop the technology, they reasoned.

The boardroom coup failed.

Altman was soon reinstated with the backing of major shareholder Microsoft – and the board members were replaced.

What can investors – especially those keeping an eye on China — learn from this astonishing episode?

The struggle for control at OpenAI highlights the tension between a non-profit mission to benefit humanity and the capitalist reality that billions of dollars are required to make that happen, says Mehta.

“It reminded me of when Xi Jinping came down on Chinese companies like Ant Financial and Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma,” says Mehta.

And yet, Chinese fast-fashion retail giants such as Shein and Temu continue to conquer the world.

“There are parallels between Chinese and American ideologies,” says Mehta.

“They are ostensibly diametrically opposite, but when it boils down to business and you peel away the onion, there is very little difference between the two.”

China’s underlying capitalism

For all the policy action in China, capitalism continues unabated, says Mehta.

“There are shackles (literally in some cases) put onto individuals who have been made examples of, like Jack Ma. Yet business in China is ultimately the survival of the fittest.

“Look no further than electric vehicles.

“There were hundreds of EV companies in China nurtured by different provincial or city governments that you and I will never hear about.

“Ultimately, a handful – likely led by BYD, X-Peng and Nio – will expand and dominate.”

Lessons for investors

The lesson for investors? Don’t be tempted to bet against capitalism, argues Mehta.

“At the end of the day, rapid technological change drives people, companies and nations to act for their own benefit.

“When Russia invaded Ukraine and energy prices rose, even Europe suspended its bans on coal and bought cargoes of LNG at exorbitant spot prices that were contracted to poorer countries like Pakistan.

“Attempts to mandate changes to behaviour ultimately make little dent to the reality of what is driven by power, profits and capitalism.

“Government intervention can help — but in the big picture, it is marginal.”

What does that mean for investors?

Look through threats of regulation and dreams of altruism to hold the best, profit-generating and well-managed businesses, argues Mehta.

New global players such as Chinese fast-fashion retailers Shein and Temu (not held in Samir’s Pendal Asian Equities Fund) are a case in point, he says.

“Western consumers are willing to buy cheap, disposable fashion ultimately destined for landfills.

“Yet these businesses are innovative and are disrupting some of the best companies in the world.”

Mehta points to Chinese equities held in his Pendal Asian Share Fund such as gaming giant Netease, which has survived a regulatory crackdown and is “absolutely swimming in cash”, and Tencent Music, which has transformed and prospered despite restrictions on the live streaming parts of its business.

“Despite the communist party’s ideology, the Chinese economy still has pockets of very aggressive, capitalism.

“That capitalism is what is driving new technologies, new ways of doing business and new businesses.”

The OpenAI lesson

As for Open AI and other generative AI businesses, a similar story will play out, believes Mehta.

“A huge fissure divides those who believe in the possibility that AI will harm us and others who believe AI will help solve humanity’s problems.

“Whichever side is more right than wrong, we are already on a path of AI progress which is difficult to control.  

“It is such a powerful technology that someone or other will step into the void and run with advancement.

“The lesson for stock investors is that when faced with a crisis and negative perceptions around how regulation will likely overwhelm businesses, you want to dig below the surface and find those companies and managements who might be able to come through the crisis.

“Therein lies an investment opportunity.”

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About Samir Mehta and Pendal Asian Share Fund

Samir manages Pendal Asian Share Fund, an actively managed portfolio of Asian shares excluding Japan and Australia. Samir is a senior fund manager at UK-based J O Hambro, which is part of Pendal Group.

Pendal Asian Share Fund aims to provide a return (before fees, costs and taxes) that exceeds the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (Standard) Index (Net Dividends) in AUD over the medium-to-long term.

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Contact a Pendal key account manager here

Pendal portfolio manager BRENTON SAUNDERS outlines three mid-cap themes that look good right now

• Oil, renewables and uranium provide opportunities
• Data centres, battery materials worth considering
• Find out about Pendal MidCap Fund

IN the ASX midcap space three themes – energy, data centres and battery materials – look like opportunities at the moment, argues Pendal portfolio manager Brenton Saunders.

Saunders manages Pendal’s MidCap Fund, which invests in the 100 biggest companies outside the ASX50, where market caps typically range from around $1 billion to $10 billion.

Theme one: energy

“A number of factors provide a constructive backdrop to the energy picture in the short, medium and longer terms,” Saunders says.

Short-term considerations revolve around oil prices and the geopolitical backdrop.

“It’s not just a function of the conflicts in Israel and Ukraine but also how the United States economy performs especially ahead of the election next year.

“Ultimately the people that control the oil market – OPEC and its aligned bodies – view an oil price in the $US90 to $US100 a barrel range as a more acceptable outcome than one in the 60s or 70s.

“I think they will reverse-engineer that market to achieve that outcome,” he says, adding that the dynamics in oil markets will play into coal markets as well.

“The medium-term considerations are more around opportunities available to companies that have strong positions in transition fuels, like natural gas.”

Saunders highlights some stocks held in Pendal MidCap Fund:

“An example in that space is Beach Energy (ASX: BPT),” Saunders says.

“The more tangential opportunities, in the medium term, are the oil refiners which are using the decarbonisation period to reinvent their strategies.

“We’ve seen Viva Energy (ASX: VEA) delve much more into convenience retail, for example.

“We also think energy generators could possibly benefit as economies struggle to replace baseload power with renewables. That helps companies like Beach Energy, Viva and Whitehaven Coal,” he says.

In the longer term, Saunders believes there are opportunities in uranium.

“The narrative around uranium is not as just a transition fuel, but possibly a renewable baseload fuel.

“Countries have progressively comes to terms with the fact that they will need to add uranium to their mix of fuels over time.”

Theme two: date centres

Another opportunity in the midcap space is data and data centres, as business demand for bandwidth and data storage grows.

Saunders believes this bodes well for NEXTDC (ASX: NXT) — another holding in Pendal Midcaps Fund. 

NXT is well placed with respect to existing and planned data centres.

Its premium land bank in Australia and growing ambitious in ASEAN provide a strong and long growth pipeline, he believes.

“The advent of generative AI and the broadscale the adoption of it in some industries is accelerating the need for the transmission of data and the storage of data.

“With think this has a relatively long timeframe to play out.”

Theme three: battery materials

The third thematic among mid-caps is the battery materials markets.

“It is on the nose at the moment, but the demand for demand for batteries and battery materials continues to ramp up aggressively,” Saunders says.

“With both supply of — and demand for — lithium compounding at 20 to 30 per cent a year, there is a fairly big dislocation as lumpy new supply comes into the system.

“At the moment we are dealing with an oversupply of some raw materials for batteries, and of batteries themselves. This should clear as electric vehicle penetration continue to progress.

“Pricing for materials and for stocks in the space is relatively depressed and has sold off significantly in the last four or five months.

“But we think this is a trend that has longevity.

“The sector will have some cyclicality in growth and we are experiencing that now, and that provides investable opportunities.

“We retain good exposure to that through our lithium names and our rare earths names.”

Higher interest rates are already flowing through to company reports. But have investors adjusted to the new reality? SAMIR MEHTA outlines strategies for a higher-rates world

• Higher rates are changing the game for investors
• Near term cashflows are key
• Find out about Samir Mehta’s Pendal Asian Share Fund

IF rates stay higher for longer, investors need to rapidly rethink what has worked in recent years.

That means a few things, says Samir Mehta, portfolio manager of Pendal’s Asian Shares Fund:

• Doubling down on valuation as a critical investing metric
• Understanding the ramifications of tighter credit on business finances
• Carefully considering the second and third-order effects of higher rates, and
• Focusing on near-term cashflow generation ahead of future earnings projections.

The effect of higher rates is already showing up in Asian company reports, says Mehta.

For example, Korean battery maker LG Energy Solutions recently told shareholders that electric vehicle sales would slow next year due to higher rates.

A luxury residential project in Seoul is in difficulty after failing to get an extension on US$344 million in bridging loans.

Altice, a telco giant built by French-Israeli billionaire Patrick Drahi, has put everything it owns up for sale as it struggles to service US$60 billion in debt.

India’s outsourcing industry, a bellwether for the health of global firms, shed more workers last quarter that any comparable period in the past five years.

Borrowing by governments, companies, consumers, and financial firms across Asia is well above levels prior to the global financial crisis, lifting the risks of default, according to the IMF.

“The question is — are the rules of the game changing?” says Mehta.

“We lived through a world with very easy to access capital and low rates as central banks were adding liquidity.

“That environment has shifted, but I don’t think that most of us have as yet adjusted our thinking around what new environment we’re living in.

“The mindset of every economic participant has to now turn on its head 180 degrees.”

Near term cashflow beats future earnings growth

Adjusting to a new world of tighter credit potentially means moving away from investing strategies that have worked in the recent past.

“When rates were low, cost of capital was subdued,” says Mehat. “You had to own assets with long duration cash flows well into the future.

“That was partly because perceptions about growth in the future can’t be tested — assumptions are just based on people’s imaginations — and partly because at a low discount rate, the present value of those future cash flows is amplified.”

In today’s world, investors should instead be looking for cash flow that can be generated in the near term, with a higher degree of certainty, argues Mehta.

That means gravitating towards companies that can find cost savings, reduce working capital and cut capital expenditure; preferably using that cash generation to buy back shares and reduce debt.

“The ability to generate cash today is more important than cash in the distant future.”

Second and third-order effects

This year’s frenzy for AI stocks and weight-loss drug manufacturers are echoes of the low-rate era, Mehta believes.

“Everyone’s coming out with assumptions and predictions of what the impacts may be — but it’s all in five, ten, fifteen years.”

A similar story has played out in recent years for companies supplying the renewable energy industry, he says.

But as the costs of finance rises, these industries will find it harder to raise the capital to continue to invest in what are often unprofitable projects.

“As an investor, you must think about the ramifications of higher interest rates on the businesses themselves — not only the effect on household and mortgage holders.

“Many of these companies have been tolerated by investors because the cost of financing has been very low.

“But as the cost of money has gone up, all of a sudden, the viability of many projects is in question.

“It’s a chain reaction. In solar and wind projects, the equipment manufacturers that supply into these projects are now feeling the pinch.

“In semiconductors, it’s not only the chipmakers feeling the pressure, but their suppliers.

“In China, the bursting of the property bubble is having a follow-on effect on not just suppliers of steel and cement but even real estate agents finding that they have commissions that haven’t been paid.

“You have to step back and change the aperture of your lens to think about business community as a whole.

“That is the ramification of the rising cost of money. And the speed of that rise hasn’t hit us yet.”

Caution warranted

Above all, Mehta urges caution.

As credit tightens, businesses fail and unemployment rises, many analysts expect central banks and governments to go back to their old ways – cut interest rates and inject liquidity.

“Some macroeconomic gurus take the view that a potential geopolitical crisis could compound an economic downturn.

There are bond bulls who think that a slowdown or recession will mean central banks will have to moderate their stance on raising rates and therefore we are close to the peak of the interest rate cycle. 

“But if the rules of the game have changed, we really must question even that assumption of central banks injecting liquidity.

“Because if you think about it, in my view, what the Federal Reserve and other central banks got wrong is that their ultra loose policy exacerbated the inflation problems we are facing.

“If you were a central bank faced with an economic downturn yet lingering inflation pressures, would you take the same path you did during COVID?

“Or are you also going to change the way you think about the world?”

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About Samir Mehta and Pendal Asian Share Fund

Samir manages Pendal Asian Share Fund, an actively managed portfolio of Asian shares excluding Japan and Australia. Samir is a senior fund manager at UK-based J O Hambro, which is part of Pendal Group.

Pendal Asian Share Fund aims to provide a return (before fees, costs and taxes) that exceeds the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (Standard) Index (Net Dividends) in AUD over the medium-to-long term.

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Contact a Pendal key account manager here

How managers respond to challenges sometimes defines a company’s success. Faced with similar circumstances, some managers take very different paths. SAMIR MEHTA explores four examples

• Strong management critical to a company’s success
• Effective response to challenge the key
• Find out about Samir Mehta’s Pendal Asian Share Fund

FOR all the market’s focus on macro-economics, it can sometimes be forgotten that one of the key factors determining a company’s success is the actions of management.

That’s why understanding a company’s leadership, strategy and the industry dynamics in which it operates is critical to successful long-term investing, says Pendal’s Samir Mehta.

“It is important not just to know management mindset, but also understand industry dynamics, customer profile, competitive intensity — those externalities lead to substantial difference in business outcomes,” says Mehta, who manages Pendal Asian Share Fund.

Investors should seek to understand two main dynamics: industry-wide challenges like slowing growth, new competition and the rationality of competitors; and management’s response to these challenges.

“Companies and managers in different industries and different countries face somewhat similar challenges. But their approaches can be so different.”

Here are four examples:

Haidilao International Holding – China

Haidilao is a popular restaurant chain in China that specialises in hotpot, a communal meal where diners cook ingredients in a shared pot of simmering broth.

After nearly two decades of strong growth, the COVID pandemic forced a reckoning.

Haidilao’s management closed nearly a fifth of restaurants and let go more than a fifth of staff, something rare in China.

“Hotpot is not a cuisine that is amenable to home delivery because you have to be present in the restaurant, typically in a group, to enjoy it,” says Mehta.

“COVID forced them restructure. Staff compensation structures were changed from fixed to variable; they spun off their fast-growing, cash guzzling, international business.

They focused on generating cash flows, right-sizing costs, and bought back a part of their outstanding US dollar bonds.

Haidilao last week posted a 12% lift in revenue for its first half and profit of CNY2.26 billion — almost 30% higher than market expectations — compared to a loss in the same period a year earlier.

Sunny Optical Technology – China

Sunny Optical makes components used in optical equipment like cameras and vehicle lens sets and is a major supplier to the mobile phone industry.

“The last 10 years were an era defined by mobile phones and Sunny was one of the poster boys of that trend.

“However, mobile phone growth has now plateaued.

“More importantly, one of their largest customers, Huawei, has been caught up in geopolitics. Combined, Sunny faces a very uncertain future.”

Yet management is investing heavily in R&D and new capabilities to find new avenues of growth.

One area of focus is self-driving vehicles, which need lenses for the LIDAR components that help the vehicle understand its surroundings. Another is virtual reality headsets.

“Contrast this with Haidilao,” says Mehta. “Sunny has just kept on investing, spending money on R&D even as their gross margins have come off quite sharply and even as their growth has come off.

“I met their management team recently and my conclusion was that their DNA is to think about growth.

“They have increased their R&D budgets and moved employees across divisions but do not want to accept a future without growth.”

Asian Paints – India

Asian Paints is India’s largest paint company. Paint is unique worldwide among consumer goods because it has largely resisted digital disruption, says Mehta.

“Almost every other consumer good has been disrupted by ecommerce, but paints are still primarily bought by going to the store,” he says.

But Asian Paints is facing a challenge. The industry so far is a benign oligopoly and highly profitable. One of India’s largest commodity based manufacturing companies, Grasim Industries, is making a play for the decorative paints market.

“Grasim is a commodity producer and for them capital expenditure is the solution to all problems. So, have spent tonnes of money getting a foothold in the industry,” says Mehta.

“But Asian Paints, recognising the nature of this competition, was well ahead of the curve. They too invested in the business aggressively, contrary to what they had done in the past, and have built on their brands and accelerated their growth quite dramatically in the past three years.

“They have generated so much cash flow that they have built up a fortress balance sheet which will allow them to survive years of intense and in my view potentially irrational competition.

“The unfortunate outcome of this is that the smaller players in the industry are going to get wiped out by the impact of Grasim — but the impact will be felt less on Asian Paints.”

SEA Limited – Southeast Asia

US-listed SEA is an e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia. It’s flagship app Shoppee is the largest online shopping platform in the region.

“The stock skyrocketed during COVID as people went online, peaking above US$350,” says Mehta.

“As was the wont of those times, they were subsidising customers and losing money on every trade.

“When inflation became an issue and investors started focusing on profits not growth at any cost, the shares collapsed.”

Management’s response was to dramatically change strategy to control costs.

“They mandated everyone to fly economy. They went to single ply toilet paper in the bathrooms. These were extreme changes,” says Mehta.

And for a while, it worked.

SEA shares doubled from their lows of $30 to almost $60 as management prioritised cash flows and profitability.

“Despite best efforts, they never achieved it,” says Mehta. “And they changed direction again last quarter because even though they wanted to do the right thing, their competitors have refused to follow.

“Shoppee was starting to lose business to competitors who were willing lose money to gain customers.”

Contrasting fortunes

“These four companies faced similar kinds of challenges, yet took completely different approaches,” says Mehta.

“This is the contrast I want to present. My focus on owning stocks in our portfolio is on profitability, cash flows, and high returns on capital employed.

“Asian Paints is a very good quality business run by management who understands the long-term dynamics, take into account competitive changes and addresses that to the benefit of shareholders.

“Contrast that with SEA which unfortunately is in an environment in Southeast Asia where growth is not as robust and consumers aren’t as rich — while the competitive intensity accelerates.

“Sunny Optical continues to invest despite a fall in growth, margins and profits.

“But Haidilao recognised that times have changed. They resized their business, cut expenses, cut capital expenditure, focused on cash flow, bought back their debt, and prepared themselves to be in a situation where things might remain tough.

“For investors, it is important not just to have the management mindset, but you also need to understand your industry, your customers and those externalities that make a big difference to the business.”

“It’s not difficult to guess which two of the four names I own in our fund,” says Mehta.

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About Samir Mehta and Pendal Asian Share Fund

Samir manages Pendal Asian Share Fund, an actively managed portfolio of Asian shares excluding Japan and Australia. Samir is a senior fund manager at UK-based J O Hambro, which is part of Pendal Group.

Pendal Asian Share Fund aims to provide a return (before fees, costs and taxes) that exceeds the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (Standard) Index (Net Dividends) in AUD over the medium-to-long term.

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Contact a Pendal key account manager here

China’s economic outlook and differing inflation outlooks for Australia and the US are leaving investors unsure where to turn. BRENTON SAUNDERS has details

• Australia lags US on inflation
• Chinese stimulus on hold
• Find out about Pendal MidCaps Fund

THE fate of markets over the remainder of the year will largely depend on the answers to two key questions: the outlook for interest rates and inflation, and the resilience of the Chinese economy.

“It’s a tough period for macro,” says Saunders.

“There are different thematics driving different stocks and sectors. From a macro perspective, it’s much more of a mixed bag than we’ve seen for quite a long time.”

Inflation

One key distinction that makes projections difficult is the differing outlooks for inflation in Australia and the US.

“Australia is still at least three to six months behind the US inflation cycle,” says Saunders.

“In the US, we have a reasonably high degree of confidence on where inflation is headed. We understand the various constituents and makeup of inflation — and most of those inflation drivers have peaked.

“But in Australia, we’re still seeing some fairly aggressive inflation in certain parts of the economy, mostly labour related.”

Compounding that is a softer approach from the Reserve Bank of Australia which has been notably less aggressive than other OECD economies in raising interest rates.

“That has put us a fair bit behind in terms of the evolution of both the inflation cycle and interest rate cycle.

“Therefore, we can realistically expect to see rates go higher and inflation remain an issue in Australia for a while.

“In contrast, in the US it feels like the inflation has peaked and is making its way down — albeit more slowly than many had expected.”

China

The second big challenge investors are grappling with is whether Beijing will deliver meaningful stimulus to its property sector to boost the flagging Chinese economy.

“There’s been some frustration that the expected stimulus hasn’t been forthcoming,” says Saunders.

“Any kind of incremental stimulus could be translated quite positively in the market. But China remains quite convinced that it’s not something they want to do.

“They’re still trying to hold that line — they don’t want to re-stimulate the property sector unless they absolutely have to.”

Chinese growth is a key factor affecting metals prices, which directly impacts Australia’s big miners.

“There’s a lot of two-way opinion on how that plays out in the mining sector.

“The mining sector is quite precariously positioned — we have seen some weakness in metal prices and a failure to recover in some that were already in pretty bad shape like aluminium.

“If we don’t see stimulus forthcoming in the next little while, it places some of the traditional mining sectors like iron ore somewhat at risk.”

Ironically, the one area where Beijing is offering stimulus — electric vehicles — is also seeing weakness.

“Electric vehicle raw materials like rare earths and more recently even lithium have been a bit indifferent at a time when you would expect them to be quite strong given the regulatory support for the sector.”

The AI boom sweeping stocks has all the makings of another market mania. That means caution is required – but there are also useful lessons for investors, says Pendal’s SAMIR MEHTA

• AI boom sweeping tech stocks
• Ultimate winners uncertain
• Find out about Samir Mehta’s Pendal Asian Share Fund

HOW should investors think about AI?

There is little doubt that advances in artificial intelligence technology promise to fundamentally disrupt how business is conducted, says Pendal’s Samir Mehta.

But the question investors should ask is not whether the transformation will occur, but when and at what cost — and who might benefit, he says.

“People have been overly excited by AI. But the reality is that it is not going to be instant. We are talking years before the full benefits start to materialise,” says Mehta, who manages Pendal Asian Share Fund.

AI stocks have been on a tear in 2023.

Microsoft’s US$10 billion investment in OpenAI, the high-profile creator of ChatGPT, has sent its shares up 40 per cent this year.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — which makes silicon chips for companies like AI giant Nvidia Corp — is up more than 20 per cent this year as investors back its exposure to the AI boom.

But the market’s excitement is divorced from reality.

Speculative fervour

Microsoft disappointed investors last month when it cautioned that revenue growth from AI would be gradual, but spending would be aggressive.

At TSMC, AI accounts for just 6 per cent of revenue, with the balance of sales coming from making chips for laptops and phones — a market that is not growing, says Mehta.

“There are many other examples — companies like Quanta Computer and Wistron Corp make the servers that mostly go into data centres for the operations of cloud businesses.

“Only a small part of it is being used for AI-related services. But just that association has meant that even though growth is negative in 2023 — and expectations for 2024 and the perception that demand for AI-related servers is high — some of these stocks have doubled in the last two or three months.

“That’s a speculative fervour.”

Mehta says one factor counting against investors in AI is that the technology’s very success could curtail demand.

Many AI services are priced on a per-user licence, leading analysts to create long term industry revenue forecasts by assuming a take-up rate among employed people.

But if AI succeeds in its promise of making business more productive, companies will reduce staffing.

“The effect of raising productivity is going to mean fewer people will need that software because fewer people are employed,” he says.

Lessons from AI mania

So, what lessons can be taken from the AI mania gripping markets this year?

Mehta says the main lesson is that the ultimate beneficiaries of technological changes like AI are not always apparent early on.

“The winners are going to be quite diverse and may not turn out to be the ones that we think of intuitively,” he says.

But another more immediately useful lesson for investors is that rising interest rates and tightening monetary policy may not be squeezing off liquidity as quickly as conventional wisdom would suggest.

“It is a truism that when you have a speculative mania or bubble, at the heart of it is always massive liquidity.

“The housing bubbles in the US and China, the credit card bubble in Korea, the cryptocurrency and NFC mania, those shared scooters and bikes — invariably they are a manifestation of tremendously loose liquidity.

“So, in 2023, any perceptions that we’re in a tight market environment have clearly turned out to be wrong.”

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About Samir Mehta and Pendal Asian Share Fund

Samir manages Pendal Asian Share Fund, an actively managed portfolio of Asian shares excluding Japan and Australia. Samir is a senior fund manager at UK-based J O Hambro, which is part of Pendal Group.

Pendal Asian Share Fund aims to provide a return (before fees, costs and taxes) that exceeds the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (Standard) Index (Net Dividends) in AUD over the medium-to-long term.

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Contact a Pendal key account manager here

Aussie midcaps are a good hunting ground for fast-growing sectors such as minerals sands and rare earths. One example is producer Iluka Resources, writes Pendal analyst JACK GABB

• Mid-cap miners offer diversity
• Iluka a leader in mineral sands mining
• Find out about Pendal Midcap Fund

WHEN you put sunscreen on your face, reload your printer with new ink or paint a wall at home, you are probably benefiting from the mining of mineral sands.

Mineral sands are old beach, river or dune sands that contain concentrations of rutile, ilmenite, zircon and monazite.

They have a variety of uses from paint and paper through to toothpaste, sun cream and ceramics — and the biggest mineral sands producer in Australia is ASX-listed Iluka Resources.  

Iluka is a holding in Pendal Midcap Fund, which focuses on the 100-biggest companies outside the ASX50 – a good hunting ground for fast-growing sectors such as mineral sands and rare earths.

Iluka was formed in 1998 through the merger of RGL and Westralian Sands. Between them, the companies have been mining mineral sands for more than 70 years.

“Three competitors control 60 to 70 per cent of zircon supply and Iluka is the number one player in the market,” says Pendal Aussie equities analyst Jack Gabb.

Zircon is particularly attractive because one of the three top players – Rio Tinto – has had challenges mining mineral sands at its Richards Bay site in South Africa, Gabb says.

Zircon prices have historically been highly cyclical, and Iluka has been able to stockpile the mineral to better manage peaks and dips, Gabb says.

In more recent years, zircon prices have gained steadily amid tight global supply.

“Spot pricing can still be volatile, but Iluka has started to fix prices for three to six months, and that provides more price stability than we’ve seen historically.  

“We like the demand environment. It’s been stable over the past few years and demand in China is rebounding.”

“On the titanium dioxide feedstock side — which goes into paint and the high-end welding market — there’s been record pricing announced and we’re seeing some pigment plants restart in China and Europe.

“Demand in the US remains more muted, but we see tight supply continuing to support feedstock pricing.”

Iluka’s management team have been headed by Tom O’Leary for nearly seven years and has been relatively stable.

Push intro rare earths

Company management is very experienced in mineral sands and the company is now pushing into rare earths, Gabb says.

Rare earths are a group of 15 metals used in a range of goods, from smart phones and computers to batteries of electric vehicles.

While mining mineral sands and rare earths is similar, processing is different — though there is some overlap in the first part of the process involving cracking and leaching.

“These is certainly some risk in Iluka getting up to speed in processing rare earths. But the management team have proven themselves capable of delivering projects in the past and we expect that to continue.”

Gabb says the key risks around Iluka involve project delivery.

“There’s a lot of growth coming through on the mineral sands side and also in their foray into rare earths. They are building a $1.2 billion project in Western Australia so there is delivery risk particularly around inflation,” Gabb says.

“This will be only the third rare earths separation facility outside China. It has a lot of strategic value, but it also means that there is a relative paucity of experienced people who know how to run a rare earths separation plant,” he says.

“The mineral sands business is a steady business that Iluka has grown up doing. It’s a stable source of free cash flow for the business and has a great industry structure. Iluka’s push into rare earths is new, but it’s very strategic and diversifies the business.”

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About Pendal MidCap Fund

Pendal MidCap Fund features 40-60 Australian midcap shares.

The fund is managed by Brenton Saunders, a portfolio manager with Pendal’s Australian equities team. He draws on more than 25 years of expertise in resources, derivatives, investment banking and private equity. He is a member of the CFA Institute.

The fund leverages insights and experience gained from Pendal’s access to senior executives and directors at ASX-listed companies.

Pendal operates one of Australia’s biggest Aussie equities teams under the experienced leadership of Crispin Murray.

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Find out more about Pendal MidCap Fund here

Contact a Pendal key account manager here

Renewed negativity about China’s growth is creating opportunities to buy good companies that are focused on delivering for shareholders. SAMIR MEHTA explains where to look

• China’s re-opening disappoints 
• Quality opportunities emerging  
• Find out about Samir Mehta’s Pendal Asian Share Fund

CONTINUING negative sentiment towards China stocks is an opportunity to invest in companies with market-leading positions that offer strong cashflow, argues Pendal’s Samir Mehta. 

Beijing’s lifting of its draconian Covid restrictions late last year raised hopes of a return to growth for the Chinese economy, but investors have been disappointed by the country’s mixed performance. 

Luxury goods makers like Burberry and LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton are posting strong sales in China as the wealthy pick up spending, but other important sectors like real estate are still performing weakly. 

“It’s a very mixed bag and there is tremendous choppiness,” says Mehta, who manages Pendal Asian Share Fund. 

“The Chinese stock markets were doing quite well until about January-February but have now handed back almost all of their returns this year.” 

Mehta says the weakness offers opportunities for investors willing to take a stock-by-stock view of the Chinese market. 

“My outlook towards China is that I see shades of similarity in what happened to Japan after their big bubble burst in 1991.

“We’ve enjoyed decades of fantastic growth in China, primarily funded by debt, towards an asset — property — which can be quite unproductive. 

“Over the next few years, maybe even a decade or more, we should expect China’s GDP growth to be significantly lower than in the past. 

“However, the quality of the growth in certain sectors will be significantly better if company manager’s recognise what is ahead of us. 

“And that’s how I position my portfolio — to find companies in sectors with concentrated market share positions, or they possess pricing power and better still, where companies are focused on cutting costs and generating cash flows without affecting growth.” 

Two Chinese stocks that look promising

Mehta says two Chinese companies stand out as meeting those criteria: Tencent Music and Netease. 

Tencent Music

“Tencent Music is one of the bigger holdings in the portfolio. You can think of it like the Spotify of China.” 

Mehta says Tencent Music’s attractiveness lies in its ability to cut costs without hurting sales. 

In 2020-21, Tencent Music was spending approximately 650 million RMB per quarter in selling and marketing expenses. By the first quarter this year, that spend has been cut to 225 million RMB. 

“That’s a dramatic cut. You would assume that when you cut down on sales and marketing there would be a negative impact on the ability to reach customers and generate revenues.

“ But the net paying customer base is the highest that they’ve ever had at about 95 million, and it’s grown more 15 per cent per annum — that’s a very strong increase.” 

Mehta says the point for investors is not in assuming this growth will continue, but instead in demonstrating the latent capacity in certain companies to create cash flow. 

“This company has adjusted its expenses while growth remains on track and is now generating significant amounts of cash flow. They finished US$1 billion dollars of buyback and they just announced another US$500 million of buyback.” 

Tencent Music has net US$3.5 billion in cash on its balance sheet compared to a market capitalisation of US$12.5 billion, sauys Mehta. 

“That’s an enterprise value of about US$9 billion; by my estimates they will be generate around US$800 million of cash every year.” 

Netease

At gaming giant Netease, a similar story is playing out.

Netease recently posted slowing top line growth of 6 per cent but an improvement in gross margin to close to 60 per cent – an improvement from a past average of 56 per cent. 

Driving the change has been a shift away from lower margin licensed games to higher-margin internally developed games, plus a shift in sales and marketing to use direct channels rather than third party sales. 

“You can see management’s thinking: growth is going to be slow but what can we do to get more profitable net results,” says Mehta. 

“An initial plan to buy back $500 million of stock has gone up to $5 billion. They are one of the few companies in the tech space that has a 30 per cent payout ratio for dividends. 

“They have a market cap of about US$55 billion and US$13 billion in net cash and will generate between US$3.5 and US$4 billion of cash flow every year.” 

Mehta says this new focus on shareholder returns and cashflow is a change for Chinese companies, which have traditionally been focused on growth and market share. 

“This negativity on China continues to present an opportunity for people like us to continue owning and, if possible, adding to these names, because they represent what all investors should be looking for: reasonably cheap valuation, moderate top line growth but very good quality margins and cash flow growth. 

“And the right use of that cash to buy back shares or pay out dividends.” 

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About Samir Mehta and Pendal Asian Share Fund

Samir manages Pendal Asian Share Fund, an actively managed portfolio of Asian shares excluding Japan and Australia. Samir is a senior fund manager at UK-based J O Hambro, which is part of Pendal Group.

Pendal Asian Share Fund aims to provide a return (before fees, costs and taxes) that exceeds the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (Standard) Index (Net Dividends) in AUD over the medium-to-long term.

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Contact a Pendal key account manager here