Pendal has visited China to explore the state of the electric vehicle and battery metals markets. BRENTON SAUNDERS explains the latest

• China visit shows strong signs for lithium investors
• Find out about Pendal MidCaps Fund

A RECENT rebound in lithium prices should persist in coming months as an oversupply in key Chinese markets dissipates, says Pendal’s Brenton Saunders.

They could underpin good prospects for Australia’s lithium producers.

Pendal recently visited key players in the battery metals supply chain in China, finding evidence that overstocking was starting to end and supply and demand for lithium was coming back to balance.

The price of lithium — a key component in batteries for electric vehicles, mobile phones and laptops — peaked late last year before falling sharply in the first quarter.

But as this graph shows, the price of lithium carbonate (99.5% purity) has risen some 80 per cent this month:

Lithium Carbonate 99.5% China spot price

“The falling lithium price was largely due to quite a significant de-stocking in China, principally in the battery part of the lithium value chain,” says Saunders.

“That seems pretty close to clearing now.

“The clearing is driven by a step-up in demand for electric vehicles again, partly due to extended support from China’s government in terms of subsidies and incentives.”

Saunders says the result is a more balanced supply chain of batteries and battery precursor materials, which has allowed prices for lithium to start to rise again.

“We expected this to happen, but it’s possibly coming through a little bit earlier than then we had expected.”

Saunders manages Pendal MidCaps Fund which invests in the hundred biggest companies outside the ASX50, with market capitalisations ranging from $1 billion to $10 billion.

The lithium price has also been weighed down by concerns about the potential for new Chinese supply from the mineral lepidolite, an abundant but relatively inefficient alternative source of lithium that China has been seeking to develop.

“Our finding on the ground is that some of the alternative supply of lithium from China’s lepidolite deposits has been significantly deferred due to environmental constraints including permitting and disposal of waste and tailings.

“That means the big Chinese procurers of lithium feedstock that had become increasingly reliant on domestic production are now going to have to go and find that material externally.

“That should underpin an already reasonably tight market.”

China is by far the world’s biggest electric vehicle market, forecast to produce 8.5 to 9 million electric vehicles this year, compared to 6.5 million last year.

“More importantly, an estimated 75 per cent of all the world’s EV batteries come out of China,” says Saunders.

“Even with most developed countries  trying to diversify EV supply chains, the reality is today they’re still very, very exposed to China.”

Outlook for Steel and iron ore

Pendal’s China visit also explored the outlook for steel and iron ore markets, which look set to come under further pressure in coming months.

“Residential real estate in China continues to battle and that is playing out in steel markets,” says Saunders.

“A lot of the private property developers are battling to fund new projects and declining house prices have hurt sentiment.

“It is not helped by the fact the government continues to stay away from stimulating property development because they want to de-emphasise speculation in property and make property more affordable.

“What that means for second half of this year is that steel and, by inference iron ore and other industrial metals, are likely to remain soggy.”

China is the biggest player in the global seaborne iron ore market, taking about three quarters of the world’s seaborne iron ore imports, and is also the world’s largest producer and consumer of steel.

“They drive the price action,” says Saunders.

ASX-listed lithium producer Allkem – which is held in Pendal Midcap Fund – has struck a merger deal with US rival Livent. Pendal analyst JACK GABB outlines its growth potential

• Lithium prices could rebound
• Allkem merger reflects quality of assets
• Find out about Pendal Midcap Fund

AMONG Australian mid-cap stocks, few companies get more media attention than lithium producers.

And as the recently announced $16 billion merger of ASX-listed Allkem and New York-listed Livent shows, they’re getting plenty of corporate attention as well.

Australia is a significant supplier of lithium because we possess vast quantities of lithium raw materials, leading to substantial industry growth in recent years.

In large part that’s because the fastest growing use of lithium is in batteries, and demand for lithium batteries is growing as economies shift away from fossil fuels.

“Our view is that there is a rebound coming in lithium prices,” says Pendal investment analyst Jack Gabb.

“Destocking in China has run its course… There will be a more normalised demand environment by the middle of 2023 which will drive prices to rebound,” Gabb predicts.

Allkem — which is held in Pendal Midcap Fund – is one the purest ASX-listed lithium plays, he says.

The Argentina-based group was known as Orocobre until November 2021 — and now will likely be rebranded again assuming the merger with Livent goes ahead.

Advantages of diversification

One of Allkem’s advantages is its diversification of products, says Gabb.

“It’s majority lithium carbonate but also has exposure to spodumene and lithium hydroxide. That’s all three lithium products while other producers are picking one or two.”

Spodumene is a mineral that’s the primary source of lithium.

Lithium carbonate is a white powder used in a variety of applications, including batteries, ceramics, and glass. It’s made by extracting lithium from spodumene ore or brine.

Lithium hydroxide is a white powder used in batteries and other applications. It’s typically made by reacting lithium carbonate with water.

“Allkem has one of the highest growth potentials of all the lithium companies,” argues Gabb.

The group forecasts that long term, its assets have the potential to produce up to 250,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent per annum.

“These are very large, very long-life assets, that are going to be expanded multiple times.

“That brings with it a huge amount of delivery risk and a huge amount of capital that needs to be spent. But the potential prize is huge production.”

Keep an eye on Argentina

Allkem owns lithium assets in Argentina, Australia and Canada.

The key risk for Allkem, and any future merged entity, is its Argentinian exposure, says Gabb.

Allkem’s flagship brine-based lithium project Olaroz (pictured above) is based in northern Argentina.

Inflation is rife in Argentina’s economy and the local currency, the peso, has been devalued.

“It sells in US dollars but at some time it has to take money out of the country and how it manages that is key,” Gabb says.

“There is a lot of strategic value in the lithium story.

“Companies like Allkem provide huge potential, but at the same time, it has a lot to do in terms of projects over the next decade, and particularly the next one or two years. It has to deliver on these.”

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About Pendal MidCap Fund

Pendal MidCap Fund features 40-60 Australian midcap shares.

The fund is managed by Brenton Saunders, a portfolio manager with Pendal’s Australian equities team. He draws on more than 25 years of expertise in resources, derivatives, investment banking and private equity. He is a member of the CFA Institute.

The fund leverages insights and experience gained from Pendal’s access to senior executives and directors at ASX-listed companies.

Pendal operates one of Australia’s biggest Aussie equities teams under the experienced leadership of Crispin Murray.

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Find out more about Pendal MidCap Fund here

Contact a Pendal key account manager here

Global equities investors might be wary of US and European bank stocks right now. But don’t let that turn you off south-east Asian banks, says Pendal’s SAMIR MEHTA

• Asia looks to be weathering the banking crisis
• Strong regulators reducing investment risk
• Find out about Samir Mehta’s Pendal Asian Share Fund

INVESTORS may not have noticed the resilience of banks in southeast Asia amid a string of failures among their US and European counterparts, says Pendal’s Samir Mehta.

It’s due to a growing maturity of regulators and governments in the region says Mehta, who manages Pendal Asian Share Fund.

It wasn’t always that way.

Southeast Asia’s currencies, markets and banking systems were heavily impacted during the 1997 crisis as well as the GFC.

A dash to safety — the tendency for capital to be withdrawn in favour of safer investments — led to macroeconomic instability.

But this year’s slow-burn banking crisis in the West — which has seen the collapse of three US banks and the demise of Credit Suisse — has so far left Asia relatively unscathed, says Mehta.

What’s changed

“This is very different from the pre-1997 crisis in Asia when this region would typically be the worst hit from a macro instability during a dash to safety.

“What people are missing is the genuine change in the approach by central banks and governments in most parts of Asia to reign in indiscriminate borrowing resulting in unbridled speculation.

“Whether it’s Singapore, which is leading the way, Indonesia, Malaysia or to some extent even Thailand, regulators have really tightened down.”

Singapore

Mehta highlights Singapore’s lending and housing policies which have been significantly tightened in recent years to clamp down on speculation and prioritise housing for owner occupation.

The highest profile of these policies is the immense stamp duty faced by foreigners buying property or locals buying second properties.

Stamp duty of 20 per cent of applies to locals buying a second property, rising to 30 per cent for the third and subsequent properties.

But for foreigners buying any residential property, stamp duty is now a staggering 60 per cent of a property’s purchase price.

Singapore also charges sellers an additional stamp duty if they sell a property within three years of buying.

“Now, all of this is draconian,” says Mehta.

“Regulators have made it so difficult so that the only those who have savings for their equity contribution, the ability to repay, are willing to pay additional taxes and importantly will hold the property for the long run can buy property.

Mindset change

“This is reflective of a mindset change that central banks in this part of the world incorporated from the lessons of the past.

“That is why it is now such a different regulatory regime in this part of the world.”

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) — the island state’s central bank and financial regulatory authority — has also directly regulated leverage available to borrowers, cracking down on banks’ ability to make risky loans.

“Human nature is such that if I work for a bank, profits I make are shared to me as a bonus but losses I make are borne by shareholders — it’s a disproportionate risk reward situation,” says Mehta.

“We have seen it time and time again. Banking crises are almost always driven by significant increase in leverage because the payouts from leveraged speculation are disproportionate for the person who takes the risk.

“This is a lesson that central banks in this part of the world — particularly the MAS — have learned.

What the MAS does is something the Federal Reserve and Western banks have rarely done — directly tweak margin requirements and loan to value ratios.”

This control over the lending market curbs banks’ ability to make excess profits but also dramatically reduces the chance of a bank failure.

“If and when there is a crisis, the probability of Singapore banks being badly affected has come down sharply,” says Mehta.

“So, among all the universe of banks out there, as an investor I want to find those banks in a regulatory environment where I won’t lose my shirt.”

The security provided by tight regulation also plays into why the Singapore dollar remains so stable and why Singapore is attracting so much foreign capital, says Mehta.

“That’s a virtuous cycle — these actions demonstrate the willingness of the central bank to take draconian measures to provide stability and that stability which by definition then encourages more people to invest capital in this region because they know it enhances stability.”

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About Samir Mehta and Pendal Asian Share Fund

Samir manages Pendal Asian Share Fund, an actively managed portfolio of Asian shares excluding Japan and Australia. Samir is a senior fund manager at UK-based J O Hambro, which is part of Pendal Group.

Pendal Asian Share Fund aims to provide a return (before fees, costs and taxes) that exceeds the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (Standard) Index (Net Dividends) in AUD over the medium-to-long term.

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Contact a Pendal key account manager here

Investors should look beyond the largest ASX companies to get exposure to the market’s fastest-growing industries, argues Pendal’s BRENTON SAUNDERS

• ASX midcaps offer exposure to fast-growing industries
• Watch a recent webinar about ASX midcaps and the lithium sector
• Find out about Pendal MidCaps Fund

INVESTORS should look beyond the biggest ASX companies to get better exposure to the market’s fastest-growing industries, argues Pendal’s Brenton Saunders.

Medium-sized companies — known as mid-caps — tend to offer higher earnings growth than large-cap companies, often with less risk than small caps, says Saunders.

Saunders manages Pendal MidCap Fund, which invests in the 100 biggest companies outside the ASX50, where market caps typically range from around $1 billion to $10 billion.

Mid-cap portfolios tend to be less concentrated, offering access to fast-growing industries such as cloud computing, medical innovation and battery metals such as lithium.

Companies in this segment also usually feature proven management teams, time-tested business concepts, a history of dividend payments and a strong focus on their core business operations, says Saunders.

“Mid-caps — the ASX50 to 150 range — historically have done better than the ASX50 large-cap universe and better than the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries,” says Saunders.

“It’s quite an easy part of the market to select good companies from because most of them are fairly well-established businesses, but higher growth — and there’s a huge range of sub-sectors or different industries to choose from.

“So, you’re pretty much spoiled for choice in terms of both quality and breadth.

“It’s really the sweet spot of corporate Australia. “It’s a very useful addition to any balanced portfolio.”

Better access to lithium producers

Saunders recently appeared at a Pendal webinar alongside Ken Brinsden, the former head of lithium industry leader Pilbara Minerals and current chair of lithium explorer Patriot Battery Metals.

Lithium — a key ingredient in batteries for electric vehicles — is a good example of a fast-growing industry that can be difficult for investors to get exposure to through investing in large capitalisation companies.

“It has been the domain of relatively small companies,” says Brinsden. “Lithium was a niche industry only seven years ago so none of the incumbents are really that big.”

Lithium has become the rechargeable battery of choice for electric vehicles, laptops and mobile phones and a key part of the transition away from fossil fuels to a net-zero carbon emission futures.

“The reason that’s happened is because a lithium-ion battery carries so much more energy density than the classic rechargeable battery — that’s what motivates the expanded lithium raw material supply base,” says Brinsden.

Australia is a significant supplier of lithium to the world because it possesses vast quantities of lithium raw materials, leading to substantial industry growth in the past seven years.

Saunders says the demand for lithium is forecast to grow substantially.

Just this month, the Australian federal government announced a national electric vehicle strategy to “encourage greater use of cleaner, cheaper-to-run vehicles”.

“Currently we have about 17 per cent global penetration in electric vehicles,” says Saunders.

“As a global average, we would expect that to gravitate towards about half by the end of the 2020s.”

Despite the growth, lithium production has long been the domain of smaller companies.

“BHP has always held the line that it’s not big enough for a business of their size. Glencore has said it’s not the kind of industry they want to get involved in.”

As a result, investors focused on the large-cap end of the stockmarket can miss out on the opportunities offered by the transition to EVs.

“In our benchmark, about 11 per cent of that total investment universe of the ASX 50 to 150 are lithium and lithium-related stocks.

“In our fund we have a 13 per cent exposure to lithium and lithium-related stocks.

“In the ASX300 small cap universe, there is a large cross section of names of very early-stage exploration and development lithium companies.

“So we’ve got quite a healthy pool of juniors starting to grow and feed up into the mid and large-cap space and become more and more investable.”

Company earnings may slow in the second half — but some sectors are better placed than others, says Pendal’s BRENTON SAUNDERS

• Earnings season strong on revenue, weaker on profits
• Economic cycle stronger for longer
• Find out about Pendal MidCap Fund

AUSTRALIA’S economic cycle has gone on longer than expected – and it shows in the recently ended ASX earnings season.

Somewhat surprisingly, most parts of the economy are still in reasonably good shape despite a string of interest rate rises.

The strong jobs market is a factor, helping prop up consumer spending.

“But the expectation is that higher interest rates will likely hurt earnings in the rest of the financial year,” says Brenton Saunders, who manages Pendal MidCap Fund.

“Across the market as a whole, revenue beats were pretty widespread even though many companies missed earnings forecasts at the bottom line,” says Saunders.

“Revenue beats were much higher than profit beats.

“We saw profit margins reduce and that relates to higher costs.

“In many cases, despite high product price increases, costs increased at a faster rate resulting in margin pressure.”

Revenue beats came in at 25 per cent versus misses of 17 per cent, according to Barrenjoey research. In contrast, the research shows earnings per share (EPS) misses of 38 per cent and beats of 35 per cent. The EPS misses are elevated by historic standards.

“We saw profit margins reduce and that relates to higher costs,” Saunders says.

“In many cases, despite high product price increases, costs increased at a faster rate resulting in margin pressure,” Saunders says.

Earnings season also demonstrated that companies have significantly higher interest costs as a result of the rates increases — which consensus forecasts underestimated in many cases, Saunders says.

That has also contributed to bottom-line misses.

“Companies have different mixes of fixed and floating interest rate exposure and that’s difficult for the market to model.”

In terms of individual sectors, it was a “mixed bag”, Saunders says.

Here’s a quick sector snapshot:

Resources

Profits in the resources sector were weaker for the December half, with a few exceptions such as lithium, nickel and coal.

Other commodity prices were lower, year-on-year in the final six months of 2022 driving profits lower.

“Similar to a number of sectors, the main negative for resources companies was costs.

“Unit cost guidance from the vast majority of companies has gone up and for a number of companies that’s resulted in a downgrade of earnings expectations.”

“In resources we also saw some lower dividend outcomes after the bumper payouts last year.

“That’s because profits weren’t quite as good as they were a year back, and increased capital expenditure as new capacity is built.”

Banks

The banks – half year from Commonwealth Bank, Bendigo and Macquarie Group, and quarterlies from National Australia Bank, Westpac and ANZ – reported strong net interest margins.

“The main negative across the banks is competition, especially in the home-lending and term-deposit markets, as fixed rate mortgages roll-off.

That is putting pressure on earnings forecasts.

“Cyclically we are close to peak interest rates and alongside higher competition means the banks are close to, or at peak net interest margins which many of the banks alluded to.”

Consumer discretionary

It’s a similar story with many consumer discretionary stocks.

Interim profits were mostly strong, though the current half year looks softer as the impacts of higher interest rates dampens spending.

“It’s been a case of stronger for longer for consumer discretionary though it wasn’t quite as ubiquitous across discretionary retail companies, compared to the June 2022 half.”

Construction

Building and construction was mixed, Saunders says, with surprises on the up and downsides, in part depending on where the bulk of business was undertaken – locally, in the US or in Europe.

Consumer staples

Consumer staple stocks reported strong results with Woolworths being the stand-out, in part thanks to higher goods inflation.

But costs also compared well to last year’s COVID impacted costs, which meant some margin expansion.

Tech and healthcare

Technology was relatively strong, Saunders says.

“Many of the tech and growth companies rolled out some kind of cost reduction program with a bigger focus on cashflow which the market took well.”

Healthcare stocks results were mixed in part because of comparisons to the previous, COVID-impacted half year, Saunders says.

That worked against some companies, and advantaged others.

Property

Finally, stocks in the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector broadly announced lower-than-expected-revaluations.

“The weakest part of the property sector is office while industrial is strong, and so too some niche areas like storage and convenience.

“The second half of this financial year is likely to see property revaluations increase putting some incremental pressure on REIT balance sheets. ”

Passive investing has become popular due to low costs and high diversification. But it often means owning poor performers that an active manager can avoid, says Pendal’s SAMIR MEHTA

• Passive investing can add risk to portfolios
• Index providers make active investment decisions
• Find out about Samir Mehta’s Pendal Asian Share Fund

INVESTORS are not paying enough attention to the hidden risks of passive index investing, says Pendal’s Samir Mehta.

Passively investing in funds designed to track the performance of a benchmark has become a popular strategy in recent years due to low costs and the promise of reduced risk due to diversification.

But many investors fail to appreciate the very process of selecting securities for the index is an active investment process that carries with it a level of risk, says Mehta, who manages Pendal Asian Share Fund.

Tracking an index often means owning poorly performing stocks that an active manager can avoid, he says.

“Of course, I’m biased as an active manager of equities.

“But what investors should think about is this presumption that passive investment is really passive.”

Understand the passive process

Investors need to better understand the process for creating the underlying indexes that passive investing relies on,” Mehta says.

Index providers make active decisions on which companies to include, the weighting each company receives and the timing of companies entering and leaving.

These decisions directly affect the buying and selling of stocks by passive investment funds.

“There is a group of people deciding which stock goes into which index, in what proportion — and there is a timing element to it as well.

“People may not think about this aspect of index construction.”

It is not a trivial concern, says Mehta.

Examples: Tesla and Adani

Two high profile examples of the perils of passive index investing are electric vehicle pioneer Tesla and India’s controversial Adani group of companies.

Tesla was added to the S&P 500 index in December 2020 after a ten-fold rise in the company’s share price.

Many investors in index funds passively bought the shares at that high point and are now down on their investments.

At the Adani group of companies, a recent short-seller report made accusations that led to a dramatic fall in share prices across the Adani companies, leading the index providers to reduce the weights of all Adani stocks in the index.

“Passive owners will now be forced to sell those stocks. Buy high, sell low,” says Mehta.

The active advantage

Active managers can often avoid these kind of investing mistakes, says Mehta.

“Active managers contribute not only by identifying good businesses, but also by taking a view on what not to own.

“If we are in a world where future returns are going to be subpar, risk management becomes paramount.

“If you look at the list of top shareholders of the Adani group of companies in India, there is not a single domestic mutual fund that is in the top 25 holders.

“What does that tell you? That none of these smart, sophisticated investors wanted to own this company despite it being a large business with a very high profile.

“But when the index providers put it in the index, passive owners had to own it.”

And it’s not just the index creators making active decisions about passive portfolios — investors themselves can also distort the process.

“If you are taking a decision to make a passive investment in US stocks, you are making an active decision not to invest in Asian stocks,” he says.

“Even if you take a decision to passively invest across all markets, there are still active decisions embedded in that choice.

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About Samir Mehta and Pendal Asian Share Fund

Samir manages Pendal Asian Share Fund, an actively managed portfolio of Asian shares excluding Japan and Australia. Samir is a senior fund manager at UK-based J O Hambro, which is part of Pendal Group.

Pendal Asian Share Fund aims to provide a return (before fees, costs and taxes) that exceeds the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (Standard) Index (Net Dividends) in AUD over the medium-to-long term.

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Contact a Pendal key account manager here

As we move into ASX interim reporting season, Pendal’s BRENTON SAUNDERS explains what investors should be looking out for

• Watch for inflation, interest rate effects
• Outlook statements will be critical
• Find out about Pendal Focus Australian Share fund
• Find out about Pendal MidCaps Fund

COMPANY outlook statements will be key to share performance during the ASX’s half-year earnings reporting season, says Pendal’s Brenton Saunders.

Most Australian listed companies will report results for the December half over the next few weeks.

The interim reporting season follows strong market performance in January on the back of China’s rapid re-opening and easing fears of rate rises.

But Saunders cautions that the risk is to the downside in coming weeks. Early evidence suggests the punishment for companies that miss expectations will be greater than the reward for those that impress.

“In general, we expect a complicated reporting season and no real trends,” says Saunders, who manages Pendal MidCaps Fund.

“Comparing year-on-year numbers is going to be quite problematic because last year had interruptions from lockdowns and re-openings.

“Most of the focus is going to be on the outlook statements rather than the results companies produce on the day.

“You might even have companies come out with strong earnings results retrospectively and weak outlook statements and be sold off by a market trying understand what 2023-24 will look like.”

Sectors to watch

The retailers will be the among clearest examples of this phenomenon after a reasonably strong six months of sales through the Black Friday and Christmas periods — but with rising uncertainty about the impact of rising rates on consumption, says Saunders.

The effect of rising rates will also show up in companies exposed to the housing sector where recent data shows falling home prices and a slowing of home buying activity.

“Housing is the only sector so far where activity has been materially impacted by interest rates so anything housing related has already seen a slowdown,” he says.

“For those companies, it’s more about assessing the extent of the slowdown and how that’s manifesting in the different companies with exposure to that.

“Banks, for example, are now competing heavily to retain mortgage market share as we come to the end of fixed-rate loans locked in at much lower rates.

“Bank net interest margins will probably peak this reporting season and then start rolling off.

“So again, the focus for those companies is going to be more on their outlook statements than on the result that they produce on the day.”

Other financials will be mixed, with some insurers seeing robust pricing and others facing up to the impact of recent severe weather events.

Resources companies should post stronger results on the back of higher commodity prices, with iron and copper prices notably rising materially over the reporting period.

But cost inflation will be among the key concerns for investors in the resources sector with margin compression expected as costs rise.

“Most of those companies are going to be reporting higher profits,” says Saunders.

“But they’ll also be guiding to higher unit costs with cost inflation in the resource sector quite high at the moment.”

Margin pressure will also be the story for many industrial companies: “We can also expect some softer outlook statements.”

Uncertain global backdrop

This half-year reporting season comes against a backdrop of uncertain global macro-economic data which has the markets on edge as investors try to assess the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

“A lot of the macro data is very contradictory. Markets are volatile as investors try to understand which way it’s headed, going from boom to bust with every news item.

“We’re at a bit of a macro inflection. It’s quite a dangerous period.

“The market will be brutal on misses. We’re seeing companies sold off almost disproportionately when they report big misses to consensus.

“And with a couple of exceptions the market is rewarding meets — and beats — less than it traditionally does.”

Investors should take a new look at Indonesia, where export restrictions are driving new domestic industries. Pendal’s SAMIR MEHTA explains the opportunity

• Indonesia’s export bans drive local industries
• Potential for long-term compounding benefits
• Find out about Samir Mehta’s Pendal Asian Share Fund

THE protectionist policies of Indonesian president Joko Widodo are driving transformation in a country once dubbed the “sick man of Asia“, says Pendal’s Samir Mehta.

Widodo’s (pictured above) moves mean Australian investors should take a closer look at Indonesia this year, says Mehta, who manages Pendal Asian Share Fund.

The policies are aimed at controlling exports of Indonesia’s natural resources and driving the creation of manufacturing and processing industries to lift the value of exports.

A ban on nickel exports has encouraged the creation of a domestic stainless steel industry that is now among the world’s biggest exporters.

A ban on exporting the bauxite used to make aluminium will come into force this year. Capturing the supply chain for electric vehicle batteries is also on Indonesia’s agenda.

An Indonesian transformation

The early successes of the policy have the potential to transform Indonesia’s attractiveness for investors, says Mehta.

Its trade balance could be in a sustained surplus while foreign direct investment rises.

Lower interest rates, reduced currency volatility and higher growth could compound benefits for investors over the next decade.

“That could mean Indonesia will become and remain a very attractive market,” says Mehta.

Importantly for investors, Widodo’s policies are carefully calibrated to drive economic prosperity rather than simply protect local industries, says Mehta.

Foreign investment rules have been relaxed and industrial estates created with manufacturing and environmental permits in place and ready access to roads and ports for exporting.

“It shows that protectionism by itself is not bad,” says Mehta.

“Indonesia has laid down the principles — you can set up your business and you can earn the benefits.”

Rush of investment

The ban on nickel exports triggered a rush of investment in building domestic smelters, largely from the Chinese companies that once processed Indonesia’s nickel.

The results have been dramatic.

Stainless steel and iron exports are on track for $US30 billion from almost nothing less than a decade ago, making Indonesia the world’s third biggest steel exporter.

“The most remarkable statistic I observed was that Indonesia might run a current account surplus with China in the next few years,” says Mehta.

EV battery supply

The electric vehicle battery supply chain is the next target.

Indonesia has significant reserves of many of the metals needed for EV batteries, including nickel, cobalt, manganese and copper.

The key ingredient missing is lithium.

But by progressively banning the export of unprocessed minerals and exempting key imports from import duty, the government is encouraging the creation of a local ecosystem for producing EV batteries.

“They are in talks with Australian lithium miners to build refineries in Indonesia. They are getting Chinese companies to build production facilities — they are building the whole chain for EV battery manufacturing.”

Echoes of China

Mehta says the creation of industrial estates echoes China’s establishment of special economic zones on a smaller scale.

“Instead of assessing project by project, approvals are given to a whole area that can house multiple companies and projects.

“By doing that, they are hoping it will take away the risk of one individual project being singled out and then being caught up in politics.”

Still, politics remains a key risk for investors in Indonesia. Elections are due next February and change in government could be a concern for investors.

“But rationally and logically it seems like no future president of Indonesia should go back on this because clearly there’s big benefits for society.

“Jobs are being created, income levels are better, there is value creation that is taking place.

“These policies have laid the groundwork for a genuine transformation for the country over the next decade or two.”

Read more here.

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About Samir Mehta and Pendal Asian Share Fund

Samir manages Pendal Asian Share Fund, an actively managed portfolio of Asian shares excluding Japan and Australia. Samir is a senior fund manager at UK-based J O Hambro, which is part of Pendal Group.

Pendal Asian Share Fund aims to provide a return (before fees, costs and taxes) that exceeds the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (Standard) Index (Net Dividends) in AUD over the medium-to-long term.

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Contact a Pendal key account manager here

Several factors are driving the ASX’s January run — but investors should stay watchful, particularly on company earnings, says Pendal midcap portfolio manager BRENTON SAUNDERS

• China re-opening drives optimism
• Outlook remains uncertain
• Find out about Brenton’s Pendal MidCap Fund

THE ASX’s strong start to 2023 has raised market confidence of better returns over the coming year.

But investors should resist getting swept up in the optimism and wait to see how company earnings fare in the face of rising interest rates, says Pendal’s midcap portfolio manager Brenton Saunders.

Three factors are driving the rapid turnaround from last year’s pessimism, says Saunders:

• The faster-than-expected re-opening of China
• Signs that inflation is reaching a peak
• Increasing evidence that a hard-landing global recession can be avoided

The S&P/ASX200 is up more than 8 per cent in January, bond yields have fallen and the US dollar has dropped sharply.

But Saunders says there are still clouds over the global economy including the prospect of a downturn later this year and the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The impact of rate rises on corporate earnings is also still unclear.

As a result, investors should take a cautious approach.

“The new year has started with a bang,” says Saunders, who manages Pendal MidCap Fund.

“Chinese sentiment has improved quickly, which has manifested in higher iron ore and other commodity prices. We’ve also seen a step up in expectation that the downturn in inflation is accelerating.

“This has been quite positive for markets.”

How China is impacting the ASX

The reopening of China has had a particularly pronounced effect on the Australian market.

As recently as mid-December, expectations were for damaging impacts from the spread of Covid across the Chinese population.

“Despite high infection rates Chinese consumers have adapted quickly and we’re seeing fast normalisation in activity levels,” says Saunders.

“There have certainly been high, widespread infection rates — and anecdotally have associated mortality levels, along with health systems battling to cope.

“But what’s changed quite diametrically is that the Chinese people have adapted to it quickly.

“The enormous fall in activity that we had through the first half of December reversed and activity levels normalised very quickly despite the high infection rates.”

Saunders says the market impact of that adaptation has been immediately felt in the iron ore price and is now flowing through to other commodities too.

Improving trade relationship

Supporting ASX sentiment is a thawing of the trade relationship between Australia and China.

“Australia has a lot of tentacles into China.

“The most obvious one is resources, but there’s a lot of companies that benefit from increased tourism, increased student flow, increased migration. That will all benefit from the China reopening.

Some 40,000 Chinese students are expected to rush back to Australia after Beijing announced they must return to face-to-face study at overseas universities

Saunders is also hearing anecdotes from Australian coal companies about cargoes heading to China for the first time in two years: “That’s some evidence that the relationship has improved.”

At the same time, the easing of global inflationary pressures is positive for markets.

“It has tempered people’s expectations of the extent of the outstanding rate rises – and the likelihood of a hard landing recession is declining,” says Saunders.

“That has seen bond market yields turn lower and continued to see the US dollar sell off and that’s been positive for markets generally.”

Unknowns on the horizon

Still, there are unknowns on the horizon.

Europe’s warmer-than-expected winter has eased fears of an immediate gas crisis, but a recent cold snap could change that picture.

Russia’s war in Ukraine continues. And the impact of tighter monetary policy is yet to fully impact households.

“We’re still pretty cautious,” says Saunders.

“This year is probably going to be quite choppy. We have improving longer-term expectations with the prospect of some potentially negative short-term implications.

“We still think that there’s a fairly high level of binary risk out there that is yet to be quantified.

“Earnings is still the area that we’re most worried about — ratings are starting to improve but there’s still material risk around earnings.”

Recent market rallies are a sign the market is looking for a slowdown in rate rises, but investors should resist trying to pick a pivot point, says Pendal’s Brenton Saunders.

• Wait for hard economic data
• Watch jobs data and earnings downgrades
• Find out about Pendal MidCap Fund

RECENT share rallies are a sign the market is looking for a slow-down in rate hikes. But investors are better off waiting for hard economic data rather than trying to pick a pivot point, says Pendal’s Brenton Saunders.

Global markets lifted in October on hopes that central banks may start to slow or pause rate rises after the Reserve Bank of Australia became the first major bank to slow the rate of monetary tightening.

But with labour markets still strong and inflation rising, it is likely too early to suggest that central banks are changing their approach, says Saunders, who manages Pendal MidCap Fund in our Australian equities team.

“It’s quite hard to understand the motivation for the rallies,” says Saunders.

“Many of the drivers of inflation continue to run hot and more importantly headline and core inflation remain strong — stronger than expected.

“Anecdotes around the edges might give you an insight into timing at best. But until central bankers have done enough to feel like they have inflation beaten, they’re likely to keep raising rates.”

The US Federal Reserve kept up the pace at its November meeting, lifting interest rates by 0.75 percentage points and signalling rates might have to peak higher than originally anticipated.

“The Fed has been incredibly clear in terms of their objectives of getting inflation under control.

“We have no reason to doubt them. It just feels like the market is trying to trough a little early.”

Look for an earnings downgrade cycle

Typically, for sharemarkets to find a bottom through an economic downturn or recession they need to go through an earnings downgrade cycle, says Saunders.

“We’re starting to see earnings downgrades but only recently and so far in a very diluted form. It’s very early days.

“Retail and housing are the obvious sectors where it would show up because of the flow-through of interest rates. Now we’re starting to see more broad-based earnings pressure.

“Even resources companies that still have strong commodity prices are seeing margins squeezed largely because of higher-than-expected cost inflation driven by poor labour availability, high fuel prices and the cost of raw materials.

“But the declines in earnings expectations we’ve seen so far are quite modest. We’d expect to see that continue to escalate over the next couple of quarters.”

The outlook for inflation is still concerning, especially as Europe enters winter amid government programs to protect against gas shortages, he says.

“The reason European gas prices are so low is quite simply because they have run out of storage.”

Strong signal from jobs data

Persistent strength in employment – partly fuelled by slower migration – also indicates the rate cycle has a way to go.

“The biggest head scratcher is just how strong labour markets are.

“I keep coming back to the fact that that’s just going to mean that central bankers have to do more work with interest rates to get inflation under control.

The message for investors?

“You just have to be very balanced in your approach. We’re trying not to cater for only one eventuality – resisting the temptation to pick a bottom.

“You’ve got to be balanced despite the temptation to try and pick the eyes out of the volatility.”