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Amy Xie Patrick: Prepare for likely recession with long-duration bonds
February 22, 2023
An economic recession is highly likely in 2023 says Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK in our latest fast podcast. Here’s how investors should prepare
You can also listen to this podcast on Apple or Spotify
An excerpt from this podcast
Amy Xie Patrick, Pendal’s head of income strategies:
We think an economic recession is highly, highly likely in 2023.
How should investors be positioning their portfolios?
An easy decision is to consider long-duration government bonds, says Amy.
When we talk about government bonds, we’re talking about high-quality, developed-market government bonds.
Regardless of whether your view is of a mild or a deep recession, bonds should rally when recessions hit.
This is why being in duration or government bonds should be the crux of your portfolio decision this year.
Compared to the beginning of 2022, government bonds are far more attractive now in terms of the income stream that they can provide, compared to other risky assets like equities.
But it shouldn’t be a set-and-forget strategy.
We fear that 2023 will be just as volatile a market environment as 2022.
There will be new fears about whether inflation’s really behind us, whether monetary policy tightening is closer to an end or not, and that will drive volatility in both equity and bonds this year.
So putting a larger weight to fixed income and putting it with an actively managed strategy that has proven to be tactical and agile through market volatility will be key.
Find out about
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest funds
About Amy Xie Patrick and Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest team
Amy is Pendal’s Head of Income Strategies. She has extensive experience and expertise in emerging markets, global high yield and investment grade credit and holds an honours degree in economics from Cambridge University.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia. Pendal won the 2023 Sustainable and Responsible Investments (Income) category in the Zenith awards. In 2021 the team won Lonsec’s Active Fixed Income Fund of the Year Award.
The team oversees some $20 billion invested across income, composite, pure alpha, global and Australian government strategies.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
About Pendal Group
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current at February 23, 2023. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Monthly Income Plus Fund (ARSN: 137 707 996) and Pendal Dynamic Income Fund (ARSN: 622 750 734) (Funds). A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com
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