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FOR some reason markets spent July ignoring central bank hawkishness.
Recession talk was all the rage, which meant rate hikes were largely discounted.
This was despite central banks keeping their messages hawkish, and seeing little relief on inflation.
Financial conditions — measured by bond rates, credit spreads and equities — eased back to May levels.
Clearly central banks were not impressed. This week they came out swinging, singing from the hymn book of restrictive rates needed to rein in inflation.
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St Louis Fed president Bullard talked of rates needing to go into “higher and restrictive territory”.
Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari wasn’t sure if inflation could be tamed without a recession.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Adrian Orr wants to see his country’s official cash rate “unambiguously” above neutral.
All of this was lit up by UK inflation pushing through 10% and heading higher.
The playbook from earlier this year is back.
Bonds sell off, credit and equities get hit and cash rates go up.
In Australia we’re likely to get another 50bp hike in September.
Rates should finish the year around 3%.
Given our high levels of household debt (and in particular the stress on 2020 and 2021 homebuyers) consumers will be hit hard at 3% — let alone higher rates in significantly stricter territory.
While the RBA will remains hawkish I doubt they will risk sending households broke by raising rates to 4% — even if markets are now playing with the idea.
Bonds are now getting more fairly priced in balancing the risks to inflation and growth.
I still prefer inflation bonds for now — but 10-year bonds north of 3.5% are interesting again.
Tim Hext is a Pendal portfolio manager and head of government bond strategies in our Income and Fixed Interest team.
Tim has extensive experience in banking, financial markets and funding including senior positions with NSW Treasury Corporation (TCorp), Westpac Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Deutsche Bank, Bain & Co and Swiss Bank Corporation.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia.
The team won Lonsec’s Active Fixed Income Fund of the Year award in 2021 and Zenith’s Australian Fixed Interest award in 2020.
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In 2023, Pendal became part of Perpetual Limited (ASX:PPT), bringing together two of Australia’s most respected active asset management brands to create a global leader in multi-boutique asset management with autonomous, world-class investment capabilities and a growing leadership position in ESG.
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