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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets: Which countries are best-suited to these market conditions
Samir Mehta: The role reversal driving equities in China and India
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Samir Mehta: The role reversal driving equities in China and India
Why our emerging markets team believes the asset class could be entering a bull market
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Why our emerging markets team believes the asset class could be entering a bull market
Why our emerging markets team remains ‘zero-weighted’ on the Philippines
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Why our emerging markets team remains ‘zero-weighted’ on the Philippines
Samir Mehta: A stealth bull market in China means it’s time to revisit Asian equities
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Samir Mehta: A stealth bull market in China means it’s time to revisit Asian equities
Samir Mehta: Trump tariffs are unlikely to impact China’s big online retailers
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Samir Mehta: Trump tariffs are unlikely to impact China’s big online retailers
Investors should be ready for any scenario as Donald Trump weaponises trade tariffs.
This week we await the outcome of a call between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping to find out if tit-for-tat US-China tariffs will be paused as they were for Mexico and Canada.
But either way it would take a lot to disrupt the momentum of China’s big online retailers, argues Pendal’s Samir Mehta.
Last year China’s four big online shopping platforms – Alibaba’s AliExpress, TikTok, Shein and Temu – shipped almost $US200 billion worth of goods internationally. Of that, some $45 billion went to the US.
In anticipation of tariffs, Temu and Shein had already modified bulk shipping, diversified logistics and expanded their US networks. Meanwhile as TikTok’s future hung in the balance, Americans flocked to another Chinese app: Xiaohongshu.
“When a product provides a value proposition far superior to alternatives, tariffs might temporarily alter – but not permanently change – human behaviour,” says Samir.
Samir Mehta: How luxury stock Prada is making a fashionable comeback
Samir Mehta: Tune in to Tencent Music if you’re looking for a hidden gem
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Samir Mehta: Tune in to Tencent Music if you’re looking for a hidden gem
WHO is the Bob Dylan of music streaming?
That’s the question Pendal’s Samir Mehta posed at the Sohn Hearts & Minds Conference in Adelaide last month.
For most, the answer is obvious: Sweden’s Spotify has revolutionised the way we consume music, dominating developed markets and setting the benchmark for subscription-based streaming.
But in investing – just like in music – real success is found beyond the obvious.
For every Bob Dylan – whose sandpaper voice and sermon-like lyrics changed the face of music worldwide – there’s a Sixto Rodriguez: overlooked by mainstream audiences until an Oscar-winning documentary, Searching For Sugar Man, revealed he had been quietly building a cult following in small but devoted markets.
“Spotify has done a brilliant job in developed markets, but there’s lots of other markets that still have potential,” says Mehta, who manages the Pendal Asian Share Fund.
“What we need to do is search for the Sugar Man of streaming.”
“Music follows exactly the same trends across the world – and the Sixto Rodriguez of streaming is China’s Tencent Music Entertainment.”
Emerging markets: What we learned from one of the biggest election years ever
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Emerging markets: What we learned from one of the biggest election years ever
If it feels like a hectic year for emerging markets investors, you’d be right.
So far 66 national elections have taken place around the world in 2024, according to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance – an intergovernmental organisation that supports democracy.
And another eight or so are still scheduled before the new year.
In a new webinar, Pendal EM fund manager Ada Chan discusses major trends emerging from these polls, along with other issues.
EM Investors can expect more certainty in 2026, she says.
“We will have to wait and see the details on many Trump Administration policies … and implementation is key from the US.”
Investors in China should focus on domestic industries, rather than manufacturing exporters, as we wait to see if Trump carries through on this week’s tariff threats.
There are also actionable lessons to be drawn from elections in Indonesia, Mexico and India, Ada says.
She explains more in the webinar
Emerging markets: China’s property industry is responding to stimulus
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Emerging markets: China’s property industry is responding to stimulus
In September, Chinese policy makers announced stimulus measures that brought about the prospect of change for its beleaguered property industry.
Now, early data is beginning to suggest cautious optimism is warranted for a turning point, says our emerging markets team.
Emerging markets: Brazil and China buoyed by monetary surprises
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Emerging markets: Brazil and China buoyed by monetary surprises
September and October are often monumental months in global markets and economics.
Think of the Asian economic crisis in late 1997 and the GFC in 2008.
This year’s start to Spring may not be quite as pivotal, but we’ve nevertheless seen unexpected and drastic changes in Brazil and China, our emerging markets team notes.
In a new article, the EM team outlines good numbers in Brazil’s manufacturing industry, retail sector and equity markets.
While inflation pressure has led to a local rate hike, expectations for lower US rate cuts has eased pressure on EM economies and their currencies.
“Together, these developments have further enhanced our enthusiasm for Brazilian equities,” the team says.
Meanwhile, the team remains confident in its overweight China position as policy changes start to move at a fast clip.
“We consider China’s low inflation, large trade and current account surpluses, earnings growth in parts of the equity market, and attractive equity valuations as reasons to maintain holdings in Chinese equities.”
Read more here
Emerging Markets: Where to look for investment opportunities in Asia
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Emerging Markets: Where to look for investment opportunities in Asia
Asian economies are shaking off China’s slowdown and showing signs of renewed vigour, sparked by a wave of tech innovation and a global trend to supply-chain diversification.
That’s the view of Ada Chan, a portfolio manager with Pendal’s emerging markets team and Samir Mehta, who leads Pendal’s Asian shares strategy.
Renewed optimism for Asia is a reminder to avoid the trap of assuming temporary challenges are here to stay, says Samir.
“Headlines about tariffs and geopolitics are all we hear of.
“But each and every company we meet with is reacting in a different manner, adjusting and getting more competitive to deal with these challenges.
“All the company meetings we do and the managers we meet make us reasonably confident that if liquidity conditions get better – which is the potential in the next 12 to 18 months – Asia could be well set for a decent run in terms of economic activity and potentially even stock market performance.”
In this article, Samir and Ada explain how to find investment opportunities in China, Taiwan, Korea and India – read more.
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