Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal’s head of equities CRISPIN MURRAY. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams

• Find out about Pendal Focus Australian Share fund

THE remarkable recovery in the US market continues; the S&P 500 (up 4.6% last week), has moved from a 9% drawdown to a new all-time high in 11 days – the quickest time in 75 years.

As of Friday night, the NASDAQ finished up for 13 consecutive days – its longest streak since 1992.

We also saw this translate into lower bond yields and a weaker US dollar last week, which is risk friendly.

The revival reflects a combination of:

– The belief that the US administration will find a solution for the Iran conflict and that the tail risks to global growth are diminished. This is reflected in Brent crude falling 5.1% and West Texas Intermediate dropping 13.2% last week.

– A significant position reversal from systematic strategies and the unwind of market hedges.

– Strong earnings for US financials signalling that the economy was holding up and earnings season should be positive.

– Positive signals in the tech sector, with TSMC and ASML noting robust AI-related demand.

Overseas equity markets have lagged the US recovery as they are more exposed to higher energy prices and supply disruption and had less economic growth momentum to act as a buffer.

Australia is more exposed than most, due to the shortage of fuel inventory, the pre-existing inflation pressures and tightening monetary policy, which leads to greater downside risk to corporate earnings. The S&P/ASX 300 was down 0.1% for the week and is up 5.6% month-to-date.

The outlook for the Gulf crisis remains as opaque as ever.

The market is pricing some form of ceasefire, which translates into a messy peace agreement where key issues such as uranium enrichment are subject to ongoing negotiations, but the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran can access capital.

The current ceasefire deadline is Wednesday.

US – Iran conflict

The key issue remains whether the Strait will be reopened to shipping, as had been suggested at the outset of the ceasefire – and the view here continues to oscillate.

There is no clear read on what is happening.

Daily transits had picked up from 11th of April, but only from around 4-5% of pre-crisis levels to 8-10%.

The US blockade of Iranian ports has acted as a constraint (affecting ~2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil), although it has given the Trump Administration additional bargaining leverage.

Things turned positive last Friday, with the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire seemingly enabling the resumption of negotiations and Iran declaring the Strait was open.

However, things turned more negative over the weekend. An Indian-flagged ship – which thought it had approval to pass through the Strait – was fired upon and forced to turn back, which has led to a drop off in transits.

Overnight there have been reports of the US Navy firing on, then seizing, an Iranian cargo ship.

There are two perspectives on the situation:

1) The bearish take is that the Iranian side is fractured and can’t deliver on a coherent agreement.

2) The more positive interpretation is that this is all part of the negotiating process.

Clearly with the S&P 500 back to highs and the S&P/ASX 300 up 7% from its March lows, the market is assuming the left tail risk is diminished and global growth will hold up.

Again, there are two perspectives on the market’s reaction:

1) We see a replay of the Liberation Day rally where, despite the tariff issue playing out for months, the market continued to rally. Then, the market did a far better job than any economist in gauging the underlying economic situation and concluding that earnings were going to hold up well.

2) The negative perspective is that equity investors do not understand how physical commodity markets work. The risk is product shortages will affect supply chains, crimping global growth (with worse effects in Asia and Europe than in the US) and putting upward pressure on inflation which limits the ability for interest rates to fall, leading to earnings disappointment.

Our view is that we must ensure we manage to these different scenarios in our portfolios.

We can see a lot of heavily discounted stocks which provide good leverage to a normalisation of trade, with more limited downside. We are wary of more domestically exposed stocks, given Australia’s fuel supply issues.

There are three broad scenarios which appear possible at this point.

1) No deal, Strait remains blocked, conflict resumes.

This would clearly be very negative for markets, with further supply disruption having increasingly non-linear effects on the world economy as the buffer of oil and other inventories has been run down.

2) Partial re-opening on an extended ceasefire or initial peace agreement.

This is seen as the most likely option given a lack of regime change in Iran and the fact that the issues requiring negotiation and resolution are extensive, including: enriched uranium, ballistic missiles, Iranian proxies, Lebanon, the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) relationship with Isreal, and access to capital to help rebuild Iran.

Some of these issues have previously been subject to months of negotiation and so are unlikely to be resolved in a matter of days.

This scenario is likely to lead to a step-up in flows of product from the Gulf, but nowhere near back to pre-conflict levels.

It is estimated there are 170-180 million barrels of oil sitting in floating storage inside the Gulf, so there is material product ready to flow out.

This could usually occur in two weeks; however the expectation is that uncertainty will prompt some reticence from ship owners, seafarers, and insurers to transit the Strait, meaning it could take four to six weeks to clear this backlog.

That still would represent 5 million+ bpd, which would go a long way to reducing the physical shortage given the pipelines would still be operating to supplement supply.

But there would be the two to five weeks it takes to get this crude to refineries, which also delays the resolution of physical shortages.

There is also the matter of how much oil production has been “shut-in” (i.e. the wellhead having been temporarily closed), primarily in Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar. It can take weeks to months to restore this production. 

All up, supply disruptions would probably last six months, and oil could trade in the US$80 to US$90 range.

3) Full re-opening of the Strait.

This is the least likely scenario and would likely require a more material leadership change in Iran, or a large shift in the US/GCC bargaining position. If it did transpire, it could see oil fall back below US$80.

Risk to supply through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait

Concerns that the Houthis would shut the Bab al-Mandeb Strait (which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean) flared a couple of times in the week.

There is no evidence yet of this occurring, but it is another bargaining chip for Iran in the discussions.

It could still happen, but there are several factors which can counter the more bearish views:

1) The Houthi strike capability has been degraded in the last 12 months.

2) Their leadership has seen how Tehran has not been able to support Hezbollah in Lebanon – and will therefore be wary of being left exposed should the US/GCC attack them.

3) A lack of ability to communicate with Iran, which limits coordination and supplies.

4) The Saudis have begun to organise a more coherent internal opposition to them.

5) The Houthis are not as ideologically aligned to Iran as Hezbollah and the Iraqi militias are.

Oil demand

So the outlook for oil prices is tied to the supply issues discussed above, however we also need to consider demand.

The announcement of the Strait’s re-opening drove a big move lower in the financial oil markets – but it also coincided with a fall in “dated Brent” (the price for North Sea crude oil for physical delivery in the next 10-30 days) which dropped $28 to $116.

This price should not be affected by future-looking sentiment. Instead, it reflects the first signs of demand destruction, with European hydroskimming refiners cutting purchases.

These are more basic operations, with higher yields of lower value products (i.e. not diesel or jet fuel) and their margins have been squeezed as they cannot pass on the physical premium in product prices.

This is how commodity markets work, with higher prices choking demand.

It is disproportionately felt by poorer end markets (e.g. some emerging markets) and in lower value products.

Again, this demand destruction may help in the middle scenario described above – but would be materially greater in the case that the Strait remains closed, which could possibly lead to rationing.

Australia

Understanding the impact of the fuel crisis on Australia’s economy is critical for our portfolios.

As a starting point it is important to note that the economy has been strong.

This is evident in last week’s March employment data.

– The 12-month employment growth rate is 1.8% and three-month annualised is 2.6%.

– Full-time jobs growth was strong at 53,000 and year on year is also accelerating to +1.9%. 

– The labour market is clearly tight, with unemployment at 4.3% and the total underutilisation level remaining at 40+ year lows and around 3.5% below the pre-pandemic level.

– Hours worked is growing at a six-month annualised rate at 3.0%. This compares to a 1.8% rise in the population.

– We also note that job losses are at record low levels, despite AI fears.

This means the economy is enjoying good income growth, supporting consumer spending. Australian credit growth was also strong and above trend.

There has also been higher saving in recent quarters which provides a buffer to spending patterns.

All this signals that the economy was running above capacity, driving inflation and rates hikes from the RBA.

But the point is the economy has gone into this shock in a good position.

The headwind from fuel is estimated at about $15-17 billion per quarter in terms of additional spending.

The savings buffer is $7 billion per quarter, so the remainder will eat into other consumption.

However, if wages growth remains solid (likely helped by the upcoming Fair Work Commission ruling) spending should slow but stay positive.

For the overall economy, with population growth of 1.8% we should avoid recession, with GDP rising around 1%.

This scenario is reasonably benign for earnings and equities. Under it we may get rates hiked one-to-two more times and then held stable.

However, there is a more bearish scenario – which is what happens should we need fuel rationing.

Our discussions with companies indicate that this is a scenario they are planning contingencies for, in the possible context that the government chooses to preserve fuel for critical parts of the economy and begins to allocate it by directing rationing amounts.

Barrenjoey estimated the potential impact of this. Assuming 15% rationing over a three-month period, its modelling suggests a 1.5 percentage point drag on GDP, taking the economy negative for a quarter before a big bounce back once fuel is available.

The impact comes mainly from industrial production (0.7-percentage-point impact), then the flow on effect of consumer confidence on spending (0.5-percentage-point impact).

The scenario does highlight this is a short, sharp effect – and also that it could lead to a 50-basis-point (bp) shift down in the interest rate curve, to help lessen the confidence shock.

For equities this would likely lead to a material market decline, although relatively short-lived and very much skewed to domestic focused companies.

Markets

The rally in US equities has been remarkable in a historic context. The 11 days to regain a new high after an at least 8% drawdown is the fastest going back to 1950.

In contrast, it took the market 55 days to regain its high after the 12.3% drawdown in response to Liberation Day last year.

The NASDAQ’s run of 13 consecutive “up” days is its best run going back to 1992.

Flows have been a big driver of the recovery: Goldman Sachs reported it had seen the largest ever five-day buying of global equities by Commodity Trading Advisers (CTAs – professional managers buying and selling futures contracts).

Market macro signals in the US are supportive of the economy, with consumer staples hitting a low relative to the S&P 500.

Copper also pushed back to highs, helped by concerns supply may be disrupted by sulphuric acid and diesel shortages.

Aluminium is close to all-time highs with supply disruption of 2 million tonnes creating a deficit of 2.6% – the highest since 2000.

The Australian dollar is also breaking out to cycle highs versus the US dollar, despite the challenged outlook for the domestic economy.

Australian equities

The ASX was held back last week by underperformance from the banks on the back of a Westpac (WBC) update indicating higher collective provisions, serving as a reminder that if there is an economic slowdown, bank earnings may be perceived to come under some pressure.

Industrials were also down, reflecting domestic growth concerns with downgrades from Qantas and Cleanaway relating to fuel, although those stocks did not underperform materially. Tech had a very strong bounce, triggered more by risk reversal than any shift in perception on AI risks.e month, which suggests returns were impacted by transition flows as more money went to index-trackers.

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About Crispin Murray and the Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund

Crispin Murray is Pendal’s Head of Equities. He has more than 27 years of investment experience and leads one of the largest equities teams in Australia. Crispin’s Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund has beaten the benchmark in 12 years of its 16-year history (after fees), across a range of market conditions.

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

Find out more about Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund  

Contact a Pendal key account manager

Victoria Power Networks’ inaugural green bond is accelerating critical grid upgrades, unlocking renewable connections and supporting Australia’s low-emissions future.

• First VPN green bond funds key infrastructure
• Certified independently, reducing greenwashing risk
• Find out more about Pendal’s Responsible Investing capabilities 

INCREASING electrification, expanding the use of non-fossil fuel sources of electricity, and connecting renewables to the grid are the three most important components of achieving a low-emissions future for Australia.

In the final quarter of 2025, Victoria Power Networks came to market with their first green bond that seeks to directly support these priorities by funding critical infrastructure upgrades and enabling more renewable energy to flow to homes and businesses across Victoria.

Victoria Power Networks (VPN) is a major electricity distribution network that manages the poles, wires and electricity across Melbourne and western and central Victoria. It operates under the names CitiPower and Powercor.

The net proceeds of the VPN Green Bond are to be used to finance or refinance eligible green projects that satisfy the relevant eligibility criteria as determined by VPN. The intention of these eligible green projects is to work towards VPN’s goal which seeks to, amongst other things, reduce carbon emissions.

This includes investments in low voltage network infrastructure, advanced operational technology systems, and the rollout of smart meters.

These upgrades are essential for integrating more renewable energy into the grid, making it easier for homes and businesses to access clean power and manage their electricity use.

Significantly, this bond helps fund the financing of new transmission lines to connect renewable energy projects to the grid.

These investments are crucial for reducing carbon emissions, improving grid reliability, and supporting Victoria and Australia’s net zero targets.

The VPN Green Bond is also noteworthy as the first Australian bond to align to two new standards: the Australian Sustainable Finance Taxonomy and the European Union Taxonomy for climate change mitigation. [1]

The bond is certified by the Climate Bonds Initiative[2] and has received a second-party opinion from Sustainalytics[3]. Aligning to standards and external certification is an important way to reduce greenwashing risk.

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[1] ISS-External-Review-AU-and-EU-Taxonomy-VPN-3-Oct-2025.pdf

[2] Certificate-VPN-1

[3] Sustainalytics-SPO-VPN-Sustainable-Financing-Framework-3-Oct-2025.pdf

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In a state where electricity is already largely renewable, the University of Tasmania is reducing emissions by tackling embodied carbon across its new builds and refurbishment projects.

• UTAS targets embodied carbon cuts
• Achieved 30 per cent new build, 60 per cent refurbishment emissions reductions
• Find out more about Pendal’s Responsible Investing capabilities 

TASMANIA has among the lowest carbon emitting electricity grids in the world because it has access to renewable hydroelectric and wind generation.

That meant when the University of Tasmania looked for ways to decarbonise, the traditional path of focusing first on energy sources was not an option — in a renewable grid, as energy efficiency alone won’t significantly cut emissions.

Instead, the University has determined that the most impactful approach to decarbonisation is to reduce the embodied carbon in its buildings.

The University focused on adaptive reuse of existing buildings to avoid demolition and rebuilding, which is carbon intensive, and the adoption of low embodied carbon construction practices in refurbishments and new construction.

Their target is to have at a minimum a 20 per cent reduction in upfront carbon emissions for eligible green projects. To date, they have achieved over 30 per cent reduction in new construction and over 60 per cent in refurbishment and reuse projects.

The Regnan Credit Impact Trust and Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund have invested in the University of Tasmania Green Bond 2032.

The proceeds from this Green Bond have been used to finance projects that meet specific green building eligibility criteria as set out in the Green Bond Framework[1], which seeks to reduce carbon emissions embedded in products and materials used in construction and refurbishment projects.

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[1] Green Bond Framework UTAS

Source: University of Tasmania, Green Bond, Green Bond | Sustainability | University of Tasmania

Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week according to Pendal investment analyst GRAEME PETRONI. Reported by portfolio specialist Jonathan Choong

• Find out about Pendal Focus Australian Share fund

LAST week’s news of a ceasefire agreement triggered a sharp relief rally, with Brent crude falling 13% and most major equity markets gaining between 3% and 5%.

The move was concentrated as virtually all the price action occurred within the first 24 hours.

There was little follow-through as attention quickly shifted to the practical difficulties of implementing any deal, and to the broader economic ripple effects that may persist even if a resolution is reached.

However, over the weekend we have seen another reversion, as it appears initial talks have broken down between the US and Iran.

Middle East conflict

The ceasefire brokered by Pakistan quickly revealed some key differences between the US and Iran positions.

The Trump administration announced a two-week suspension of hostilities, conditional on Iran agreeing to the immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s response however stated safe passage through the Strait would be possible “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces” which is a materially different proposition. Iran had also expected Israel’s attacks in Lebanon to stop.

Moreover, there remains a wide gap between both parties on the 10 or 15 points for any extended deal.

Iran’s published 10-point framework – which the US described as a “workable basis for negotiation”, includes Iran retaining control of the Strait, acceptance of Iran’s right to uranium enrichment, the withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, and a cessation of hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon.

Several of these conditions appear fundamentally incompatible with US and Israeli redlines.

The US clearly wants an off-ramp, but the Strait of Hormuz needs to be re-opened at a minimum, which has become a key point of leverage for Iran.

Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz had started to lift in the week leading up to the ceasefire but remain 85-90% below pre-conflict traffic.

Following the ceasefire, little has changed. Traffic slowed on 8 April, before resuming on 9 April, but at a reduced rate.

There were also reports of Iran requiring vessels to pay a toll of US$1 per barrel – equivalent to approximately US$2 million per large tanker, to be settled in bitcoin to avoid confiscation and sanctions.

Safe shipping routes were also published by Iran, with suggestions that passage would be limited to 15 vessels per day, compared to normal traffic of ~140, across cargo and tankers, inbound and outbound.

Data continues to suggest exports from virtually every major Middle Eastern producer ex-Iran have collapsed to near zero since the conflict began, with Asia being the primary buyer.

Impacts on refined products

With the Strait remaining throttled, the key issue is the flow on to refined products, such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel.

Middle East refineries have been shut due to direct attacks and an inability to export.

Asian refineries source most of their crude from the Middle East, with the lagged impact of reduced supply only just starting to be felt given average voyage times of two to six weeks.

To date, global refinery throughput has reduced around 4 million barrels per day (mb/d) or around 7% of pre-conflict output.

The risk is that this deteriorates further as commercial crude inventories erode with some estimates suggesting refinery cuts could double by May if the situation does not improve.

If or when the Strait re-opens, it will take time for refinery throughput to recover, with market estimates ranging from three to six months.

Several factors contribute to that lag:

• The Strait is likely to reopen only partially, and potentially under Iranian coordination rather than freely.
• Middle Eastern refineries will need to rebuild operating rates from a low base.
• Product tankers which have largely repositioned away from the region, will need time to return and may be cautious about doing so until security conditions are clearly established.

This likely means prices of refined products will remain elevated for some time.

In Australia, fuel security remains a focus given low inventory and indirect reliance on the Middle East via Asian refineries.

At present, the situation remains manageable: Petrol stocks stand at approximately 39 days of consumption cover, diesel at around 30 days and jet fuel similarly.

The government announced funding to help operators secure supply, confirmed successful discussions with Singapore to keep trade flows open and expressed confidence in inventory levels through to mid-May.

Separately, seven diesel cargoes bound for Australia from the United States have been reported.

Nonetheless, the balance could become more difficult the longer the crisis lasts.

Macro and policy

The emerging energy crisis brings risk of increased inflation and reduced growth, as reflected in cash rate expectations.

The shift in the short end of the curve has been significant. Rate cut expectations have moderated by around 25 basis points (bps) in the US and Europe, and by approximately 50bps in the United Kingdom, though the implied path remains materially higher than it was before the conflict.

US

The first March inflation data came from the US, where the CPI rose 0.87% for the month, bringing the year-on-year (YoY) rate to 3.3% – in line with consensus.

Energy rose 21% for the month, but there was no meaningful spillover into food prices, with core CPI rising modestly by 0.20% month-on-month (MoM) versus 0.3% consensus, and 2.6% YoY.

Based on this data, market estimates for core PCE are ~3.1%, reflecting the PCE’s lower weighting to housing and higher skew to services inflation.

When read alongside the prior-week’s non-farm payrolls report, the Fed likely remains on hold in the next meeting.

This data had also indicated the US labour market was on a firm footing heading into the war.

Looking through monthly volatility (driven by strikes and weather effects), non-farm payrolls increased by an average of 68,000 over the past three months and 15,000 over the past six months. The unemployment rate declined 18bps to 4.26%.

Europe

European CPI data for March will be released this week. Flash data suggests a lift in headline inflation from 1.9% to 2.5% YoY, driven by energy, but with core inflation moderating from 2.4% to 2.3% YoY.

Europe has more exposure than the US to global energy markets, but the CPI basket is more skewed to household energy than motor fuel so the pass through is delayed given regulated tariffs.

Nonetheless, composite PMI data pointed to pressures on input prices for the UK and Europe.

China

China released its own March inflation data. Energy inflation was evident in PPI at +0.5% YoY, which is the first positive print since late 2022.

But there was little pass through to CPI which moderated to +1.0% YoY in March, down from +1.3% in February. This missed consensus for +1.2% and remained well under the National People’s Congress inflation target of 2%.

Australia

There was little new data in Australia, however the PMI data sent a cautionary signal in March indicating that business activity is slowing and input prices have spiked.

This represents the largest month-on-month increase since March 2022, the period of the last major global oil shock.

AI

Over the week, there was some news flow on Anthropic, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) lifting 58% in three months to $30 billion, overtaking OpenAI.

Further detail also emerged on Anthropic’s Mythos product, with preview access provided to 11 core partners and 40 additional organisations, to help identify cybersecurity flaws in operating systems and browsers.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent subsequently summoned bank leaders to Washington for a meeting on AI cyber risks.

The market also continues to grapple with the potential longer term economic impact of AI adoption on employment.

While still early days, it is encouraging that use cases to date are predominantly focused on coding.

A recent report surveying around 6,000 US companies was also published suggesting relatively few companies (8%) expect a large negative impact on employment (>5%) over the next three years.

Instead, the focus seems to be more on productivity gains.

Private Credit

Despite the recovery in markets, global private equity stocks remain under pressure, reflecting continued uncertainty in private credit portfolios.

The most immediate focus has been on retail redemption requests which have risen sharply in Q1 2026 relative to prior periods and are now running above the 5% quarterly cap that most funds impose to manage liquidity.

Blue Owl has been hit particularly hard, with redemption requests of 41% on its technology income fund and 22% on its direct lending fund.

In the medium term, the bigger debate is the extent to which asset quality might deteriorate, given private credit’s skew to smaller companies, particularly in the software industry.

To date however, there is little evidence of defaults. Funds typically quote default rates sub-1%, although this excludes restructurings which likely understate the true level.

Taking a broader view that includes restructurings, there are some signs of stress. Payment in Kind (PIK) loans have been increasing, with Fitch’s broader view of defaults lifting from 4.6% to 5.8% between December 2024 and January 2026.

Within the direct lending subset specifically, (Fitch’s Privately Monitored Rating or PMR dataset) defaults lifted from 7.8% to 9.4% over the past year ending January 2026.

The rising risk profile for software is also evident in publicly traded syndicated loan markets, where secondary trading implies a spread of >700bps for the software sector.

Concerns are also evident in the price for public BDCs, which are trading at a ~20% discount to NAV. This implies a ~10% markdown in loans, after allowing for leverage.

Overall, while there will likely be some issues in private credit, the risk of financial contagion appears low.

There are potential issues around bank lending to private credit which is estimated at US$410–540 billion, and uncalled investor commitments at a further US$310 billion. Questions have also been raised about capital backing insurance investments, given offshore reinsurance subsidiaries. 

However, these are modest relative to US bank balance sheets of US$33 trillion, pension fund assets of US$28 trillion and insurance company balance sheets of US$14 trillion.

Markets

It was a strong week for the Australian market with the S&P/ASX 300 rising 4.5% for the week, with little differentiation by market cap.

However, there was significant rotation by sector.

Financials outperformed, driven by gains in banks and diversified financials alongside Materials with gold stocks also leading. Select growth names also moved higher.

On the other side of the ledger, Energy was the worst performing sector down 3.7% for the week after the crude price reversal.

Defensives, which previously outperformed, gave back ground, and healthcare and software names were mostly softer.

As the US-Iran stand-off continues, gold isn’t delivering the usual safe-haven comfort. Pendal investment analyst RACHEL FOLDER explains how to stay positioned for volatility

• Gold crowded
• Geopolitical volatility is creating opportunities
• Find out about the Pendal Smaller Companies Fund

WITH gold positioning already stretched, the evolving geopolitical backdrop is creating fresh opportunities beyond the crowded trade.

Gold has increased from roughly 5 per cent of the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Index (benchmark) four years ago to 18 per cent, at the time of writing.

Over the course of January alone, the gold price rallied nearly 30 per cent to over US$5,500 an ounce. However, it has since given back many of those gains.

While Folder describes the precious metal as having had an “incredible run” in recent times, the Pendal Smaller Companies Fund has actually been underweight in gold small caps.

Why?

“When commodities rally, we tend to see the lowest quality assets run the hardest.  While we have participated in the gold rally, our investment process has a strong bias to quality, which has resulted in us being underweight the really pointy end of the sector. This is a deliberate risk management strategy,” says Folder.

Gold positioning has been extreme, and the sector hasn’t escaped the fallout from the current geopolitical uncertainty.

The flow-on effects of the Iran conflict include higher diesel costs.

Folder’s team recently spent time in Perth visiting numerous gold companies to understand the sensitivity of fuel price moves to production costs.

“These companies are significant consumers of diesel, and broker research suggests the increasing diesel price in the last month equates to around A$200 per ounce of gold produced – for some operators this represents a significant impact to cash margins,” she says.

“We are picking stocks rather than trying to time the market or solve for one macro outcome. So, in positioning the fund in a balanced way we are always aiming to ensure we have positions that will perform across a range of scenarios.”

AI sell-off

Another key thematic that has been driving markets is AI disruption.

In these types of situations, Folder says the market’s instinct is to “shoot first and ask questions later”.

“We see this as an opportunity, and we think some names have been unfairly hit,” argues Folder.

“We have seen a selloff in some key high-quality names such as AUB Group, for example.”

This has been indiscriminately impacted by the fear that AI will disrupt the insurance broking sector – for example, Tuio, a small Spanish insurance company, launched a vibe-coded app that quotes and binds simple insurance policies.

AUB has de-rated on this uncertainty alongside many global insurance broking names.

“We see AUB as being disproportionately impacted here, because the AI disruption narrative misses some key points around the complex commercial risks that rely on deep domain expertise, market access and underwriter relationships,” explains Folder.  

“Ultimately we see AI making these businesses more productive with broader moats.”

Opportunities emerging from Middle East conflict

Gold has retraced as the weight of money flows into oil/energy exposures and inflation fears persist.

Defence stocks are performing well on a relative basis, with Codan – an Adelaide-headquartered company providing advanced communications solutions to defence and security forces across various international jurisdictions – one example of this.

Another key beneficiary of the Middle East conflict, according to Folder, is Channel Infrastructure – a New Zealand-based operator of the country’s only fuel import terminal.

“The company has significant latent capacity at its storage facility, supporting a strong upside valuation case as it enters further long-term contracts,” says Folder.

“Following recent developments in the Middle East we think the likelihood of Channel selling its remaining capacity at very attractive rates has just improved considerably.”

But Folder notes that these beneficiaries are companies that are already well understood by the Pendal team.

“Both Codan and Channel Infrastructure have been held in the fund for a while. While prospects for both companies have recently improved, this is in addition a strong investment thesis that already existed without the crisis.”

The length of the war will determine how far reaching the impacts are into the broader economy, but Folder says the Pendal small cap team is carefully monitoring the situation.

“We aren’t radically changing the portfolio at this stage given the uncertainty, we continue to take a balanced approach,” she says.

Energy importers are the main losers while some energy exporters and China remain resilient, argues Pendal’s Emerging Markets team

• Iran war shocks commodities, EM inflation pressures intensify
• Energy importers lose, exporters and China hold
• Find out about Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund

THE Iran conflict represents an exceptional negative supply shock to global commodity markets, with significant implications for emerging markets and developed economies.

Crude oil is at risk, but also refined products, LNG, fertilisers, petrochemicals and specialist products such as mining explosives, sulphuric acid and helium.

The impact on emerging markets includes sharply higher bills for energy‑importing economies, placing pressure on current account balances and exchange rates.

Inflation will rise everywhere, initially via energy prices and later through food prices, driven by fuel and fertiliser costs.

Currency weakness in energy importers will further amplify inflation, while outright shortages are likely to constrain activity.

These inflation effects are expected to be most acute in EM Asia and (as in 2022) in the world’s poorest nations.

The shock creates a clear split in emerging markets.

We see a four-part taxonomy:

1. Energy importers are the primary losers, facing a combination of weaker growth and rising macro stress
2. Energy exporters, by contrast, benefit from improved terms of trade and stronger fiscal and external positions
3. China is significantly insulated by recent policy choices
4. Gulf Cooperation Council markets (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain) are beneficiaries of higher hydrocarbon revenues but face war damage and export constraints

Here is a closer look at each category:

Energy importers

Energy importers are the clear losers, with several large economies highly exposed.

Countries such as India and South Korea run some of the largest oil deficits globally, consuming roughly 5.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) and 2.5 mbpd respectively while producing very little.

Taiwan and Thailand are similarly exposed relative to the sizes of their economies.

Beyond Asia, Turkey and Poland face meaningful headwinds, with oil deficits close to 1 mbpd and 0.7 mbpd respectively. We have been cautious on these markets and have moved more underweight this month.

China

Although it is a major oil importer, China is relatively resilient.

Domestic demand is weak. Its electricity system, and to a lesser degree its transport system, are heavily decarbonised.

Crude stockpiles are large (estimated at 1.20-1.4 billion barrels) and imports from Russia (and even potentially Iran) provide supply flexibility.

Significantly, Chinese bond yields have fallen since the start of the war. We have become more positive on the outlook for Chinese equities relative to other Asian markets.

Energy exporters

The key opportunity for emerging markets investors lies with non‑GCC energy producers.

Latin America stands out.

Brazil produces around 4.5 mbpd versus consumption of 3.3 mbpd. Mexico, Colombia and Argentina are also net exporters.

We have been highly positive on Brazil and positive on Mexico and maintain our overweight positions.

South Africa is a net importer but is partially cushioned by its status as a major coal producer and limited coal‑to‑liquids capacity (about 150 kbpd), reducing the GDP impact to around 0.5%. We retain our small overweight position.

GCC countries

In the GCC, Saudi Arabia and UAE continue to export reduced volumes via pipelines at much higher prices but are sustaining a significant number of attacks from Iran.

We have reduced our overweight position in UAE to recognise the economic risks from the continuing conflict.

Opportunities

With very high volatility and actual supply constraints in many critical commodities, the outlook for large parts of the global economy and global financial markets is uncertain.

However, it’s important to recognise the great opportunities in emerging markets that are exporting at higher prices, and also in China, where farsighted policy choices should lead to strong relative outcomes.

About Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund

James Syme, Paul Wimborne, Ada Chan and Roshni Bolton are co-managers of Pendal’s Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund.

The fund aims to add value through a combination of country allocation and individual stock selection.

The country allocation process is based on analysis of a country’s economic growth, monetary policy, market liquidity, currency, governance/politics and equity market valuation.

The stock selection process focuses on buying quality growth stocks at attractive valuations.

Find out more about Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund here
 
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

Contact a Pendal key account manager here

Effective 2 March 2026, the Fund’s administrator changed from The Northern Trust Company to State Street Australia Limited. 

As the Fund’s administrator, State Street Australia Limited provides administration services which include fund accounting, valuation and unit pricing, distribution preparation and preparation of the financial statements for the Fund. 

Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week according to Pendal portfolio manager JIM TAYLOR. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams

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THE market is oscillating between de-escalation rhetoric from the US and escalatory bombing actions, such as Iranian nuclear and steel making facilities being hit on Friday night.

Last week, optimism that a fairly rapid end to the conflict would minimise economic damage from high oil prices and damaged confidence gave way to concerns about the likely negative impact from high energy prices.

President Donald Trump’s extension of the deadline on Thursday for opening the Strait of Hormuz could not hold back further equity selling on Friday.

The S&P500 finished down 2.1% for the week – its fifth straight week of losses and the worst weekly losing streak in about four years.

It has fallen an average of 0.3% per day since the war began, but the intraday swing from high to low has averaged 1.3%, adding to investor consternation.

The Nasdaq was -3.2% for the week, has now fallen for 10 of the last 11 weeks, and is in correction territory.

The S&P/ASX 300 was up 1.0% for the week, helped by a rebound in resource stocks.

Equity market sentiment indicators took a leg down last week, after being fairly muted for the previous three weeks.

The situation in the Middle East remains binary – it could easily get a lot worse but equally could see an improvement in sentiment very quickly.

The issues arising from the conflict are exacerbated by inflation in many countries having either stalled above levels that central banks are comfortable with (e.g. US) or having been on an upward trajectory (e.g. Australia).

There has been a rapid reversal across many developed and emerging market economies from an expectation of rate cuts to rate hikes.

This means a key underpinning of the supportive rate cutting/cyclical upswing upside scenario has moved very quickly to become a significant headwind.

For example, expectations for US rates have moved from 50 basis points (bps) of cuts in CY26 to circa 8bps of hikes.

On the AI front, documents leaked from Anthropic talked about the company’s next model (codenamed “Capybara”) and its enhanced capabilities. The documents said that “compared to our previous best model, Claude Opus 4.6, Capybara gets dramatically higher scores on tests of software coding, academic reasoning, and cybersecurity, among others.”

Macro and policy Australia

February’s consumer price index (CPI) was modestly below consensus expectations, with headline flat month/month and +3.7% year/year (versus +3.8% expected) and trimmed mean +0.2% month/month and +3.3% year/year (versus +3.4% expected).

However, this is largely irrelevant given the shift in energy prices in March.

Consensus expectations for 1Q 2026 quarterly inflation have moved up to ~1%, from 0.90% previously. The 30% rise in fuel costs will drive up headline inflation in the coming months.

The Roy Morgan-ANZ weekly consumer sentiment has plunged back to Covid lows, accompanied by a surge in inflation expectations. The RBA will be sensitive to any risk of the latter becoming unanchored.

In addition, it is expected that any prolonged fuel price increases will manifest in weaker non-discretionary retail spending.

Goldman Sachs has estimated that a 10% increase in fuel would see a 1.1% hit to retail sales, while a 30% increase would translate to a 3.4% hit, all else being equal.

This has weighed on the domestic discretionary retailers, which are typically down 10-20% since the war began.

Macro and policy US

It was a quiet week for US data. Initial and continuous claims data suggest that labour markets are holding steady for now.

However higher rates have seen mortgage applications down ~10% in each of the last two weeks.

While markets have moved quickly to reprice the expected path of US rates, thus far it does not appear to be pricing a material hit to US growth. The longer the conflict persists, the more fragile this assertion will feel.

Macro and policy Europe

European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde demonstrated the bind that central banks find themselves in. 

“We willnot act before we have sufficient information about the size, persistence, and transmission of this shock,” she noted, “…but we will not be paralysed by hesitation:our commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target over the medium term is unconditional.”

“If the shock gives rise to a large though not-too-persistent overshoot of our target, some measured adjustment of policy could be warranted. To leave such an overshoot entirely unaddressed could pose a communication risk: the public may find it difficult to understand a reaction function that does not react…. Otherwise, self-reinforcing mechanisms would kick in, and the risk of de-anchoring would become acute.”

Energy update

The net impact on global oil flows from the Strait’s closure appears to have improved last week, as an additional 3 million barrels per day (bpd) were redirected through other pipelines.

However, the release from strategic petroleum reserves has been slower than expected.

Goldman Sachs estimates that of the ~20 million bpd of normal Hormuz flows, 6.9 million bpd have been offset elsewhere.

Notwithstanding the net energy surplus position of the US, there is little indication that production is going to ramp to help fill the global deficit.

A Dallas Fed survey of large US oil producers showed that at this stage ~70% are not expecting to change their production in 2026. Less than 10% expect to increase it significantly.

A shift in ownership of oil wells in the US towards larger firms has meant that US oil production is less sensitive to increases in price than has historically been the case.

Our resources analyst, Jack Gabb, was in Perth last week, focused on the diesel outlook for miners. His observations are:

• Despite emerging shortages among independent distributors, the major miners all appear relatively comfortable at this stage.
• For example, BHP has not seen any change in supplies (typically receiving three to four shipments into Port Hedland per week).
• RIO noted concern, but no alarm. The company has a month’s worth of storage capacity and line of sight on another month.
• South32 also has five to six weeks visibility but are a smaller user.
• Stocks outside of the diversified miners are lower, typically with just one to two weeks on site. However, most reported visibility on deliveries from the likes of Ampol and Viva well into May.
• That said, action plans are being drawn up in the event supply is disrupted. For example, by reducing stripping/mining rates, changing rosters and processing stockpiles.

US West Coast tech/AI trip

Jim Taylor spent a week in San Francisco and Silicon Valley meeting with software and AI-related companies including Nvidia.

His key question on supply dynamics was around the major constraints to further data centre (DC) and AI factory buildouts. Here, his observations were:

• The conversation about data centre supply constraints has shifted from GPU hardware to physical space.
• Access to power remains a key constraint with companies developing their own power sources to bridge often long timelines in accessing the grid.
• New microchip technology is increasing the tokens that can be produced per watt of electricity consumed by between two and 35 times. (A token is a unit of text that AI can read and produce).
• Development yields and re-leasing spreads on existing data centre capacity both remain supportive for continued development. The scale of the new builds means that co-financing of projects is becoming increasingly important.

The other side of the question is demand – how is the demand for tokens developing and is there much growth after model training peaks? Observations here were:

• Demand for tokens is driving the revenue of the major large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-4, Claude, and Gemini up by US$1-2 billion per week. Token consumption is up ~4x since January.
• As token cost comes down (and is expected to continue to fall) economically justifiable use cases for extreme heavy token consumption increase.
• Training of LLMs remains a significant and ongoing use case, however inference usage is very much at the infancy of its journey. (Inference can be thought of as the AI model using what it learned in training).

Nvidia

Nvidia is at the core of the AI system and a leader in terms of its direction. Taylor’s key observations here were:

It is going all-in on inference

The battleground from a chips perspective over training LLMs is not over, but Nvidia has made it very clear the company is focused on getting ready for the explosion in inference activity that is coming.

The measure of success in this area will be the efficiency of token production in DCs and AI factories. The key metric will be tokens per second per megawatt (TPS/MW). The DCs are constrained by power and so to create extra revenue need to produce more tokens per MW of power available. Each new generation of chips is producing more tokens at lower costs. Decreasing cost of tokens will be a feature of the industry.

The current generation of hardware delivers 2x the number of users per MW at low levels of interactivity and up to 10x at higher levels of interactivity, compared with the previous generation. Further optimisation of the hardware sees the multiplier at the extreme high end of demand increasing to circa 35x.

The efficiency of production of tokens is critical to opening up the highest-value/highest-cost use cases for deep research into new medicines, training robots and widespread adoption of driverless vehicles, among many other areas of study.

The efficiency of the new generation hardware drives volume of production of tokens per unit of power, which creates additional revenue opportunities to sell that volume at better margins.

Open-source models

Nvidia is driving token usage through the provision of open-sourced models across the spectrum of autonomous driving, robotics, biology and a number of other fields.

Open-source models encourage companies to engage in research in these fields by not requiring them to begin at ground zero. This drives demand for tokens and Nvidia hardware and software.

The company’s Omniverse simulation platform allows manufacturers to build physics-based digital twins of factories and run real-time simulations. This can materially reduce production planning cycles and support more autonomous decision making on the factory floor.

Neocloud Providers (NCPs)

Nvidia is supplying NCPs with access to the whole stack of hardware and software to create demand tension with the hyperscalers.

It also provides Nvidia with access to low-cost tokens for its own internal usage. Nvidia is taking equity stakes in these businesses. It offers the NCPs a very low risk entry into the AI factory world.

The rise of Physical AI

Given the scale of manufacturing, healthcare, transport, logistics within global GDP it is no surprise that AI in the physical world is expected to dwarf the scale of AI in the IT world. Think of physical AI as AI + sensors + actuators + real world feedback loops.

While it may not be attracting all the headlines like the LLMs, there is a great deal of activity happening below the radar. For example, Jeff Bezos is trying to raise an AI manufacturing fund of $100 billion which will buy up manufacturing businesses to integrate them with AI. He has also founded a start-up called Project Prometheus – his first CEO position since 2021 – to develop AI for engineering and manufacturing (cars, aerospace, electronics, and more) with $6.2 billion in reported funding as of November 2025.

Tesla has flagged that the training of Optimus (a humanoid robot) will require ~10x the compute of that required for Cybercab, providing some insight into the scale of compute that is going to be required for global physical AI development.

Tesla is saying that it is targeting 30c/mile in total costs for the Cybercabs it is just launching. This compares to costs of running the Model Y of about 72c/mile and the cost of catching an Uber of about $2.50/mile. Thus, Cybercabs may be one of the first use cases with compelling transparent economics that prove up the bona fides of AI.

Other, broad observations from the research trip:

Be careful extrapolating the pace of AI/Agent deployment at tech companies to the broader economy. The speed of adoption at Microsoft or Block is not representative of the broader enterprise or consumer adoption curve. Mid-market and core economy companies are two to three years behind. Native AI/Cloud-based organisations have inherent advantages in terms of data being centralised and easily accessed, which materially reduces lead times for software development. Most enterprises are still busily cleaning and centralising their data to allow interrogation.

First-party data, properly exploited with AI/machine learning tools, is the nirvana outcome. Block’s internal credit bureau and dynamic credit scoring is the exemplar: AI converts proprietary data into a durable competitive advantage where growth is a purposeful journey, not a random walk.

Irrespective of AI, the scope for efficiency and cultural dividends from companies undergoing genuine transformation needs to be front and centre. Expedia, Intel, and Bill.com all offer meaningful operational leverage opportunities that exist independently of AI adoption. The benefit to shareholders of a fresh perspective from new C-suite executives remains a key source of value accretion.

Sales organisations are easier to pivot than start from scratch. Companies with existing channel relationships, sales infrastructure, and customer trust in adjacent markets have a structural advantage in capturing the middle market opportunity over pure greenfield entrants, even those with better technology.

Dealing with large organisations and institutions (“enterprise”) can be incredibly difficult for start-ups. Sales lead times can be long, while the enterprise pain point that the start-up is trying to address and the enterprise IT function are different parts of the business. Enterprise IT is focused on and obsessed with security, privacy and governance, which stretches resources of the new entrant. Wholesale change of customer relationship management is unlikely. Start-ups typically get a sliver of a workflow vertical (e.g. client service) where identifiable deep expertise gets them in the door. They augment, not replace, existing systems. Enterprise sales don’t walk in the door; they need to be curated and nurtured.

Agent identification and security is critical – no-one is letting agents loose in their corporate networks. Security is the unresolved blocker. Zero-trust frameworks for agents are not yet fully developed. Each agent effectively needs a digital identity and a full set of credentials — and unlike a human sitting outside the system, an autonomous agent is inside the system making real decisions. This is actually harder to secure than traditional user access management. IT owns the security concern but is often not the buyer with the pain point. Up until now bots in e-commerce represent malevolence, from here they represent a transactor. Authorisation goes from proving you are human to proving you are a credentialled bot. Identification and credentialling of agents will be a key focus of enterprises and will be a choke point for their adoption.

Software engineering called to account. Claude code exposes the inefficiencies and poor output that was previously thought to be acceptable; the starting point for software efficiency was an unrecognised issue. Software engineers will be hired (and agreeing to employment) based not just on salaries but also token budgets and the rate of burn of the tokens will be the lead indicator of productivity.

The Great Migration. Companies such as HubSpot, Intuit, Bill.com etc are all increasing in size, with higher monetisation of more complex products. The opportunity here seems real, facilitated by the increased cadence of product enhancement/development.

Sovereign AI. Here is an increasing focus on local availability. Complete outsourcing to foreign parties of all DC/hardware ownership and capabilities in country is considered a sovereign risk that needs to be addressed.

Onsite power production for DCs is being positioned as a bridge to grid connection, but is likely to be a permanent feature. 

Central processing units (CPUs) are back in secular growth, as the graphics processing units (GPUs) critical to AI need a lot of CPUs around it. CPUs also have an energy efficiency dividend to come.

The funding environment has fundamentally changed. In 2021–2023, a former OpenAI or Google DeepMind employee could get a venture or private capital term sheet with no business proposition. Now they need to turn up with a product. Many businesses in the pipeline are in limbo with low likelihood of getting funded. Start-up founders face a binary decision. Those with some funding but not enough to compete with well-funded leaders face a choice: push on with reduced resources and clear milestones or shut down. The days of bridge rounds and extended runways on a hope are largely over.

Are OpenAI/Anthropic friends or foes for traditional business models? The encroachment by the LLMs is something that the market has been very focused on. There are differing views on the nature of the LLMs, with people generally considering Open AI the most commercially driven business (deploying capital, spawning businesses) to Anthropic/GDM who are more focused on solving the scientific complications on the way to artificial general intelligence (AGI). They are pursuing commercial ends to create funding to solve the problems. Expedia, Intuit, Xero and many others have agreed deals with the LLMs. The market is unsure as to the balance of power between the parties, with the LLMs bringing a new distribution channel (1-2% of volume currently) and the companies striving to safeguard their data and IP.

Markets

Gold

Gold has had a positive correlation with equities, rather than acting as a safe-haven offset like US government bonds since the start of the war.

It has dropped over 14% since the start of the month, in significant contrast to prior periods of equity stress.

It has been flagged that around 83 tons of ETF holdings remain loss-making even at $4,500/oz and are hence susceptible to further liquidation, with 85 tons already redeemed since the conflict began.

The put/call skew on the largest gold-backed ETF hit a six-year high last week.

Turkey’s central bank added to the pressure, selling and swapping around $8 billion of gold in the two weeks following the outbreak of war.

It did hold up better than the equity market at the end of last week, though whether we have seen the peak gold price for this cycle remains a key area of debate.

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About Jim Taylor and Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund

Drawing on more than 25 years of experience investing in top-performing Australian companies and a background in accounting, Jim manages our Long/Short Fund and co-manages our Imputation Fund. He is a Chartered Accountant with membership of the Australian Institute of Chartered Accountants.

Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund is managed by Crispin Murray. The fund has beaten its benchmark in 14 years of its 18-year history (after fees), across a range of market conditions. 

Find out more about Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund here.

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

What February inflation data means in the context of Iran conflict | Mispricing is opening up opportunities on the ASX | Social bonds: How to make an impact – not just a return

A month ago petrol was $1.75. Today it’s $2.45. So how relevant was the February monthly inflation print? Pendal’s head of government bond strategies TIM HEXT explains

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WHAT did we learn from the February monthly inflation print?

And what does it mean in the context of war in Iran?

Monthly headline Consumer Price Index data was flat compared to January. On an annual basis, prices have risen by 3.7% since February 2025 – slightly lower than expected.

On a trimmed-mean basis CPI rose 0.2% or 3.3% year on year.

Non-tradeable prices are up 5% year on year while tradeables only rose 1.3%.

The graph below shows year on year CPI between January and February:

Education was the main contributor – which isn’t surprising since February is when annual school and university fees rises are measured.

Overall, as the graph above shows, the rises were similar to last year despite falling wages and inflation.

Tertiary fees only rose by 2.2% (since they’re indexed), but no one told secondary private schools about lower inflation, as they again pushed prices up by 6.6%. Oh, to have such a captive client base.

Travel prices fell, but this is a usual post-school holiday move.

The only other bit of good news was new dwelling costs, which make up 7.5% of the CPI basket, only went up 0.1%. They are now 3.7% higher than a year ago, but the 0.4% a month pace of late last year has now moderated.

Excluding volatile electricity prices, housing inflation overall seems to be topping out nearer 4%. This is a bit high but not uncomfortably so.

Market response

The market barely budged on this number. Without the Middle East noise, it would have caused a small rally in rates, but everyone remains fixated on oil prices.

We have seen a bounce in rates since Monday and the market is now closer to two, not three, more hikes.

Inflation over March

Q1 2026 CPI (and March CPI) is released at the end of April, just before the next RBA meeting in early May. The March rate hike takes some pressure off the RBA to move in May.

Assuming the current $2.47 fuel price remains to month end it will see fuel prices up 28% in March. Should they stay there through April to June that would see fuel prices up 30% in Q2 over Q1. The news is even worse for diesel and jet fuel.

Fuel directly accounts for only 3.3% of CPI but clearly the costs feed indirectly across a wide number of goods and services.

Headline inflation in March is likely to hit nearly 4.4% on a year-on-year basis. This would mean headline inflation for Q1 is closer to 1.2% and trimmed mean around 0.9%.

Market pricing

These Q1 CPI numbers would lean towards another rate hike in May. However, there is so much going on before early May that current pricing of a slightly higher than 50% chance of a hike seems fair.

Ultimately it will be all about balancing the ‘stagnation’ and ‘inflation’ in stagflation.

In longer bonds we still view 5% as a good medium-term buy, although seeing levels briefly hit 5.2% on Monday did test our conviction. Volatility is here to stay.

If you’d like to hear more about how Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest team is positioning for this environment, please contact us through our accounts team

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About Tim Hext and Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest boutique

Tim Hext is a Pendal portfolio manager and head of government bond strategies in our Income and Fixed Interest team.

Tim has extensive experience in banking, financial markets and funding including senior positions with NSW Treasury Corporation (TCorp), Westpac Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Deutsche Bank, Bain & Co and Swiss Bank Corporation.

Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia.

Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here

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About Pendal

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

In 2023, Pendal became part of Perpetual Limited (ASX:PPT), bringing together two of Australia’s most respected active asset management brands to create a global leader in multi-boutique asset management with autonomous, world-class investment capabilities and a growing leadership position in ESG.

Contact a Pendal key account manager