China equities are not about to outperform the broader emerging markets benchmark. But there are opportunities if you know where to look, argues Pendal’s JAMES SYME
- Over-reaction in some parts of China market
- ‘Real opportunities at these price levels’
- Find out about Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities fund
PARTS of the Chinese equity market are showing opportunities at current price levels, argues Pendal emerging markets portfolio manager James Syme.
Syme and his team members — who manage Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities fund — believe the EM equities asset class is dominated by bottom-up investors who, in the aggregate, alternatively underreact and then overreact to top-down developments.
“Sometimes over-reaction can occur to the downside, when groups of stocks within markets sell-off indiscriminately to unjustified levels on top-down concerns,” says Syme.
“We believe that’s happening in parts of the Chinese equity market — and that real opportunities are being presented at these price levels.”
Does that mean China equities are set to outperform the broader emerging market benchmark?
No, he cautions. “The property sector continues to struggle and the loss of market share in US imports will not easily be regained.”
But there are opportunities if you know where to look, argues Syme.
Chinese retail sales in September were up 5.5% year-on-year, but that broad measure hides greater strength in particular segments, he says.
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For example restaurant and catering sales were up 13.8% annually, while tobacco and alcohol sales gained 23.1%.
Stock examples
Below Syme outlines three stock examples which are held in Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities fund:
Tsingtao Brewery is China’s second biggest brewer, with a 15% domestic market share.
As well as benefiting from the cyclical recovery, Tsingtao is a beneficiary of the down-shifting of Chinese consumers away from more expensive foreign brands into the company’s own premium brands, and also of a political preference for domestic brands, Syme says.
“In recent results the company showed strong growth in average selling prices and margins.
“In the first nine months of 2023, the consensus forecast for the company’s forward earnings rose 30.5%, but the stock itself declined 16.8%, putting it at an all-time low P/E ratio.”
Trip.com
Trip.com is China’s dominant domestic online travel agency providing full travel booking services domestically and internationally.
Again, the company is performing very strongly, says Syme.
“Chinese Valentine’s Day in late August saw booked hotel room nights reach a record high.
“The third quarter of 2023 saw profitable results from all listed Chinese airlines and revenue per room reach a record high for Chinese hotels.
“The shift online was hugely accelerated during the pandemic, helping Trip.com gain market share and achieve economies of scale reflected in rising margins.
“As well as domestic and international tourism, recovery in China in music festivals, business conferences and exhibitions should remain supportive.
“Yet, in the first nine months of 2023, the consensus forecast for the company’s forward earnings more than doubled but the stock itself declined slightly.”
Meituan and Tencent
Elsewhere in the consumer e-commerce space, Meituan’s continued success as a business seems to be ignored by equity markets.
The pattern is the same at online giant Tencent, Syme says.
“Tencent’s under-performance is particularly stark given the current global investor enthusiasm for stocks with AI exposure.
“Tencent is likely to be a global leader in the space, combining its existing technological strengths with a major investment program in a Chat-GPT-style artificial intelligence ‘Large Language Model’.
“You wouldn’t know that from the share price though.”
What it means for investors
This is not a ‘buy-the-dip’ argument, stresses Syme.
“It is not a deep value argument — we remain growth-at-reasonable-price investors.
“But what we are seeing within the Chinese equity market are stocks with supportive top-down conditions, strong and steady earnings growth, upbeat results and guidance from management – and valuations that look attractive relative to peers and to the stocks’ own valuation histories.
“As always with our process, it is crucial for the top-down and bottom-up investment cases to align.”
About Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund
James Syme, Paul Wimborne and Ada Chan are co-managers of Pendal’s Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund.
The fund aims to add value through a combination of country allocation and individual stock selection.
The country allocation process is based on analysis of a country’s economic growth, monetary policy, market liquidity, currency, governance/politics and equity market valuation.
The stock selection process focuses on buying quality growth stocks at attractive valuations.
Find out more about Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund here
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
Investing in a higher-rates world | Time to consider bonds | AI’s not done yet | Watch-out on capital-intensive stocks
Equities investors have focused on operating cost inflation in recent years. Now it’s time to think more about capital expenditure, argues Pendal equities analyst ANTHONY MORAN
- Investors should focus on capex cost inflation
- Risk of blowouts in some sectors
- Find out about Pendal Focus Australian Share fund
- Watch Crispin Murray’s bi-annual Beyond The Numbers webinar
EQUITIES investors have rightly kept a close eye on company operating costs during the recent period of high inflation.
Now it’s time to pay greater attention to capital expenditure, says Anthony Moran, an analyst with Pendal’s Aussie equities team.
Operating cost inflation refers to increases in the price of goods and services a company needs to operate its business. Higher costs for raw materials, labour, energy and the like can squeeze profit margins.
Capital expenditure inflation refers to rising costs associated with long-term assets like buildings, machinery or technology, which can affect a company’s ability to grow, expand, or modernise.
“We’ve obviously gone through a period of very high inflation and spent time figuring out which stocks can pass that on to their customers through higher prices — and which stocks are exposed to the worst of the cost rises,” Moran says.
“While the market has focused on the operating cost side, it’s time to give more focus to the capital expenditure side. Any company with a fair bit of capital intensity will be exposed to price rises in coming periods.”
Price rises have occurred across the board, from gas turbines and other hard equipment to construction costs, Moran says.
“If you’re a capital-intensive company, capex inflation is going to erode returns, especially if you don’t have pricing power,” he explains.
“If you’re in an industry where there are just a few manufacturers and they all have the same cost base, maybe they can pass through the higher costs.
“But if it’s an industry like steel, which is a globally traded commodity, there is no pricing power.”
Capital intensive stocks
Moran highlights ASX-listed BlueScope Steel (ASX: BSL), which is undertaking a $1 billion reline of its blast furnace in Port Kembla, NSW.
It’s also considering increasing capacity in North America and building a coating facility in western Sydney.
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“They are going through a very capital-intensive phase and it’s something BlueScope must be wary of because capex blowouts could eat into the cash flow of the company,” he says.
Other examples of companies needing to maintain a strong focus on capital expenditure inflation include Star Entertainment (ASX: SGR) which is finishing off a multi-billion-dollar development in Brisbane and toll road operator Transurban (ASX: TCL).
“The revenue side of Transurban is very attractive because it rises with the CPI.
“But the company has no incremental pricing power, and it is still building its West Gate Tunnel Project in Melbourne.
“What will catch people out is when there is irregular, bumpy capex – something like replacing a plant every five years when the price of the plant has gone up considerably in that period.”
About Anthony Moran
Anthony Moran is an analyst with over 15 years of experience covering a range of Australian and international sectors. His sector coverage has included Australian Industrials and Energy, Building Materials, Capital Goods, Engineering & Construction, Transport, Telcos, REITs, Utilities and Infrastructure.
He has previously worked as an equity analyst for AllianceBernstein and Macquarie Group, spending a further two years as a management consultant at Port Jackson Partners and two years as an institutional research sales executive with Deutsche Bank.
Anthony is a CFA Charterholder and holds bachelor’s degrees in Commerce and Law from the University of Sydney.
Market sentiment may have dipped on US tech and AI stocks. But Pendal equities analyst ELISE McKAY has no doubt AI technology will be an enduring investment theme.
- Companies with data are likely to be early winners
- Infrastructure winners could change as market shifts
- Find out about Pendal Focus Australian Share fund
SENTIMENT is down on the so-called magnificent seven US tech stocks, but it would be a mistake to believe the AI theme has run its course.
That’s the view of Elise McKay, an investment analyst with Pendal’s Aussie equities team who has just returned from a US tour where she met with dozens of companies.
AI was a topic in almost every meeting, McKay says.
“AI is not a fad,” says McKay.
“Economic wobbles and geo-political uncertainty have contributed to a recent sell-off in the Nasdaq.
“But there’s strong evidence that over the longer term generative AI will have a big impact across the business landscape.”
ChatGPT is the best-known example, but the technology is driving efficiencies in everything from video creation to medical diagnosis and cyber-security.
Equities investors should keep an eye on how companies are investing in AI, as well as which infrastructure suppliers are best placed to take advantage of a fast-evolving market.
“Over the medium term I expect to see company budgets moving from things like administration, sales and marketing to IT,” McKay says.
Researcher IDC estimates IT budgets will grow by 3.5 per cent this year, and 7 per cent in 2024. A proportion of that spend is being reallocated into generative AI solutions.
An October Gartner poll found 55 per cent of organisations were in pilot or production mode with generative AI — up from 19 per cent in April.
Which companies are likely to benefit quickly from reallocation of IT spend into AI?
Look for companies with access to high-quality data as potential winners of early competitive advantage in the AI race.
“Companies with access to data which they can use to train AI models should generate further barriers to entry,” says McKay. “The strong get stronger.”
Potential infrastructure winners
There is will also be evolving opportunities among infrastructure providers, says McKay
Computer chip maker NVIDIA is regarded as a leading infrastructure winner, because its graphics processing (GP) units are in big demand by data centres needed for AI training.
But it is not the only winner.
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“Not only do we need ‘training models’, but we also need large numbers of ‘inference models’ and the infrastructure required to support them,” says McKay.
Generally, a generative AI model is trained by exposing it to a large amount of data. This model training is resource-intensive and often happens in big, centralised data centres powered by thousands of computer chips. Over the long term, McKay expects this market to become more commoditised.
On the other hand, inferencing makes use of previous training or live data to solve a task.
This process requires less computing power and can take place on the “edge” of a network – closer to applications.
The inference market will be more highly distributed with greater opportunity to value-add, predicts McKay.
“Inference will need to take place away from big data centres at ‘the edge’ in metro data centres, smart phones, cars and the Internet of Things to ensure mass adoption and minimise latency.
“Infrastructure requirements will be wide and varied with no one player controlling the market.
Next week: Elise will share more insights on the AI infrastructure market
About Elise McKay and Pendal Australian share funds
Elise is an investment analyst and portfolio manager with Pendal’s Australian equities team. Elise previously worked as an investment analyst for US fund manager Cartica where she covered a variety of emerging market companies.
She has also worked in investment banking and corporate finance at JP Morgan and Ernst & Young.
Pendal Horizon Sustainable Australian Share Fund is a concentrated portfolio aligned with the transition to a more sustainable, future economy.
Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund is a high-conviction equity fund with a 16-year track record of strong performance in a range of market conditions. The Fund is rated at the highest level by Lonsec, Morningstar and Zenith.
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
Here are the latest insights on inflation, rates, bond yields and credit from Pendal’s head of government bond strategies TIM HEXT
- Why bonds, why now? Pendal’s income and fixed interest experts explain
- Browse Pendal’s fixed interest funds
Another week, another rise in yields; Australia the worst developed market
AT THE time of writing, Australian 10-year bond rates were up another 0.24% for the week – despite little hard data to explain it.
True, the Reserve Bank is expected to hike rates next week. But long bonds have underperformed short rates, which is not what you’d expect.
Interestingly, Australia was by far the worst performer among global markets. Europe was largely unchanged and the US was only 0.05% higher.
So we’re left with various possible explanations — though if truth be told, the scale of the selloff is a surprise to all.
One economic explanation is that our inflation seems to be settling down near 4% while the US is at 3%.
Even though our short rates are lower than the US, markets (for now) do not expect that to last in the medium term.
Maybe it was the avalanche of supply this month finally catching up with markets.
The Australian government issued $8 billion of 30-year bonds which seemed to fill in all buyers requirements.
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Added to this was $13 billion of semi-government issuance this month, nearly all 10-year maturity or longer.
Corporates also issued $11 billion, larger than normal, with no signs of slowing down.
10-year yields knocking on 5%; semi-government bonds above 6%
Markets are now pricing inflation of 2.75% and real yield near 2.25% for the next 10 years.
South Australia on Tuesday today issued a 2038 maturity at 6.15%!
Perhaps term deposits will keep creeping up to 6% and stay there for the next 15 years. But I suspect that will not be the case.
This highlights the increasing hurdle rate for any other investment — be it equities, property or even absolute return strategies.
RBA likely to hike on Tuesday; but probably not beyond
The RBA has cornered itself into a rate hike through overly optimistic inflation assumptions made in August.
Though, we must emphasise the numbers were not that bad.
Market reaction would have you believe inflation is once again accelerating — though it was largely oil based, the price of which has now come back.
Inflation is still too high, but the RBA is not playing catch up.
The Q4 numbers out late January should be in the region of 0.7 to 1%, again confirming a pattern of inflation slowing to under 4%.
This makes a February rate hike, now priced at slightly over 50%, unlikely.
We have therefore tentatively dipped our toes into short-end duration, though saving some firepower for a move closer to 100% priced.
Credit has largely ignored equities this month
Finally, we should note the impressive performance of credit this month.
No, it hasn’t contracted. But it has also barely widened, despite higher yields and weak equities.
Last year those two events would have led to a decent widening in credit. This year the mood is different, since inflation is seen as under control and central banks largely done.
Earnings have also held up well with the stronger-than-expected economy. Liquidity could become more challenged into year end. But for now credit markets are functioning well.
About Tim Hext and Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest boutique
Tim Hext is a Pendal portfolio manager and head of government bond strategies in our Income and Fixed Interest team.
Tim has extensive experience in banking, financial markets and funding including senior positions with NSW Treasury Corporation (TCorp), Westpac Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Deutsche Bank, Bain & Co and Swiss Bank Corporation.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
About Pendal
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
In 2023, Pendal became part of Perpetual Limited (ASX:PPT), bringing together two of Australia’s most respected active asset management brands to create a global leader in multi-boutique asset management with autonomous, world-class investment capabilities and a growing leadership position in ESG.
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week according to portfolio manager PETE DAVIDSON. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams
CONCERNS about the Middle East and Ukraine, ongoing tight money conditions and an opaque inflation outlook are weighing on equity markets.
On a positive note, we’ve seen an improvement in US domestic politics with the appointment of a House speaker after a three-week hiatus. Though the underlying US political backdrop remains deeply partisan.
Oil prices remain elevated but have not spiked despite Middle East mayhem. Crack spreads — the pricing difference between a barrel of crude and all the petroleum products refined from it — are actually pointing to lower oil prices.
Gold and natural gas prices also remain high.
Iron ore prices are up on expectations of a China stimulus package and lower Chinese domestic iron ore production.
In Australia, a September quarter consumer price index (CPI) of 1.2% pointed to a re-acceleration of inflation, with stickiness in rents and services.
Aussie two-year and 10-year government bond yields were up 10bps and 7bps respectively last week.
The S&P/ASX 300 shed 1.05% for the week, led down by interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate (-4.33%) and technology (-3.60%)
Simply put, higher rates are likely to reduce an already muted earnings growth outlook.
US macro and policy
Overall, the economic consensus in the US is now the Goldilocks scenario of inflation on a glide-path to 2%, with GDP slowing and a soft landing.
This is what’s currently in the price.
US GDP growth remains strong and US consumers are still spending.
However there are straws in the wind that suggest growth might be slowing — including a plunge in the recent EVRISI homebuilder survey and some softer manufacturing indices.
Labour costs and services inflation remain thorny issues for inflation. However Covid-inspired quit rates are slowing, helping the outlook for slowing labour price gains.
It’s interesting to note the US has a real (inflation-adjusted) cash interest rate of 1%, versus zero for Europe, about -1% for Australia and -3.5% for Japan.
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Higher real cash rates help lower inflation. Jamming the Fed funds rate above the inflation rate worked in 1979 for Fed governor Paul Volcker, who broke the back of inflation.
The US yield curve is now much less inverted than it was mid-year. The spread between 10-year and two-year nominal yields has fallen from about -100bps to -20bps.
We continue to watch a number of factors which have driven 10-year yields to 20-year highs. These include:
- Strong Q3 GDP growth of 4.9%
- Increased supply of Treasuries as the fiscal deficit expands
- Reduced demand for US government bonds from global investors. There is also competition from rising yields on offer in Japan
- Reduced demand from the Fed
Looking at the past eight Fed tightening cycles, bond yields fell post the final hike each time by 90bps on average over the following six months — irrespective of whether a recession or soft-landing followed.
However history also shows that sharp rises in 10-year bond yields often culminate in a financial “accident” such as the 2018 global sell-off or the 2013 “taper tantrum”.
We did see the US banking crisis earlier in the year and we remain on watch for other signs of stress.
Australian macro and policy
September’s CPI came in at +1.2% for the quarter, up from a +0.8% rise in the previous quarter.
It was 5.4% year-on-year, down from 6% in the June quarter.
The trimmed means were 1.2% for the quarter and 5.2% for the year.
The devil was in the detail. Food grew only 0.6%, helped by deflation in the fresh food category. Meanwhile subsidies helped rein in growth in the childcare and electricity components.
Services inflation remains elevated, driven by rents and insurance. It’s likely that growth in the rental component is understating the actual state of rents.
An RBA rate hike is now more likely in November.
We do note that accounting software company Xero’s data suggests wages rose just 1.9% in the year to September and averaged 2.7% in the prior three months for Australian small businesses. This is a positive trend for inflation.
Labour cost growth is starting to trend down, according to the latest NAB business survey.
About Pete Davidson and Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Pete is Pendal’s head of listed property and a portfolio manager in our Aussie equities team. For more than 35 years, he has held financial markets roles spanning portfolio management, advisory and treasury markets.
Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund is Crispin Murray’s . Find out more about Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund here.
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
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The November 7 rates decision rests on the definition of ‘materially higher’ and ‘low tolerance’. Pendal’s head of bond strategies TIM HEXT explains
- Why bonds, why now? Pendal’s income and fixed interest experts explain
- Browse Pendal’s fixed interest funds
AUSTRALIA’S latest inflation data was higher than expected.
The September quarter inflation number came out at 1.2% for both headline and underlying (trimmed mean) measures. This was above expectations of 1.1% and 1% respectively.
In terms of headline inflation, it’s now fair to say the current pace is about 4% annually.
Last quarter it was 0.8%, dragged 0.2% lower by fuel prices. This quarter was 1.2%, dragged 0.2% higher by fuel.
The increase in underlying inflation would be of greater concern for the Reserve Bank.
A quarterly rate of 1.2% would not have been welcomed.
Under the hood
Looking under the hood would add to the RBA’s concerns.
Market services remain stubbornly high. Housing inflation remains at over 2% a quarter, driven in part by utilities.
At least rents have now caught up with leading indicators at 8% annually.
Anyone who recently received their council rates will not be surprised by the 4.4% increase there. At least it only happens annually.
Government subsidies once again had an impact.
The government is already suppressing utility prices and now also childcare prices – though the childcare changes are permanent. Childcare costs were down 13%, subtracting 0.1% from this quarter’s CPI.
Here you can see a breakdown of the ABS’s latest inflation data:
What’s material?
Focus now turns to the RBA’s November 7 board meeting.
We have two communications recent communications to consider.
The RBA’s latest minutes mentioned a “low tolerance” to upside inflation surprises.
And in her maiden governor speech, Michelle Bullock mentioned “the board will not hesitate to raise the cash rate further if there is a material revision to the outlook for inflation”.
The question is – what is material?
In August the RBA forecast year-end inflation to be 4.1% and 3.9% underlying. It’s early days, but Q4 is expected to be around 0.9%.
This would leave headline at 4.3% and underlying at 4.1%.
The RBA will release updated forecasts in its next monetary policy statement on Friday November 10 (though it will reference them in their rate decision beforehand).
Is 0.2% higher “material” or a breach of the “low tolerance”? That will be the big question come November 7.
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Markets have 60% chance of a hike in November and a cash rate 0.35% higher by early next year.
At these levels there is no clear trade, since it will be line ball.
If pushed, I think Michelle Bullock will be keen to show her inflation fighting credentials by putting in one hike, even though she was probably hoping today’s number would let her off the hook.
If the market gets close to pricing two hikes in the next few weeks we will go long duration. But until then today’s reaction seems sensible and fair.
Long bond yields largely ignored Wednesday’s moves. Ten-year bonds remain around 4.75%.
As always, they will rightly or wrongly be more captive to US bond moves and the latest iteration of oil prices.
About Tim Hext and Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest boutique
Tim Hext is a Pendal portfolio manager and head of government bond strategies in our Income and Fixed Interest team.
Tim has extensive experience in banking, financial markets and funding including senior positions with NSW Treasury Corporation (TCorp), Westpac Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Deutsche Bank, Bain & Co and Swiss Bank Corporation.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
About Pendal
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
In 2023, Pendal became part of Perpetual Limited (ASX:PPT), bringing together two of Australia’s most respected active asset management brands to create a global leader in multi-boutique asset management with autonomous, world-class investment capabilities and a growing leadership position in ESG.
There are signs the global economy is gradually slowing. Pendal’s ANTHONY MORAN explains what that means for Aussie equities portfolios
- Economic slowdown may require portfolio rethink
- Look for companies gaining market share and investing
- Find out about Pendal Focus Australian Share fund
- Watch Crispin Murray’s bi-annual Beyond The Numbers webinar
THE global economy has shown resilience in recent months — but there are now signs it is gradually slowing, along with consumption.
“It doesn’t feel like things are falling off a cliff,” says Pendal equities analyst Anthony Moran.
“But we are moving from single-digit growth to single-digit declines. In this environment investor mindsets change from being comfortable about resilient demand to thinking about downside risks.
“That’s making everyone a bit more wary and it’s a good time to think about your portfolio.”
The shift has been particularly prevalent in industrials, which have underperformed other sectors.
“Investors want a way to offset the risk, particularly because we’re talking about modest and moderate declines, not a full-scale recession.
“Investors don’t need to put all their money into hyper-defensives because things may not be that bad,” Moran says.
“They should be looking for companies that are going to grow above their category, or are able to grow market share, particularly if they are trading at attractive valuations.”
Example: Aristocrat
One example is Aristocrat Leisure (ASX: ALL), which Pendal owns in several equities funds.
“They are not only exposed to the traditionally resilient category of gaming. Because they’ve invested huge amounts in research and development, it’s allowed them to keep taking market share in slot machines, particularly in North America and in online casinos.
“Companies like Aristocrat should be able to still deliver pretty good earnings growth even if gaming spend declines because of market share gains,” Moran says.
Aristocrat has also recently won a licence to use NFL branding in the US on slot machines, which has the potential to be a long-lasting franchise and deliver a younger demographic into casinos.
Example: James Hardie
Another company that falls into the ‘outperformance’ category is building materials supplier James Hardie (ASX: JHX), which Pendal also owns in several funds.
“They’ve had a double-digit decline in market demand in the US market, but they’ve been able to win market share through refocussing their attentions on the large home builders in the last 12 to 18 months.
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“Not only has James Hardie been winning market share in their customer segment, but those large home builders have been winning share themselves within the housing market … benefiting from a lack of existing home inventory.
Focus on longer-term gains
Moran says companies like Aristocrat which make upfront investments can lose in the short term in the hope of longer-term gains.
“That’s as long as they have the people to execute. If they have that, then investing can be a good lead indicator of future performance.
“When you find stocks that invest in the future, grow above their category and are gaining market share, then they are generally going to surprise on the upside and that’s where you want to have your portfolio positioned.”
About Anthony Moran
Anthony Moran is an analyst with over 15 years of experience covering a range of Australian and international sectors. His sector coverage has included Australian Industrials and Energy, Building Materials, Capital Goods, Engineering & Construction, Transport, Telcos, REITs, Utilities and Infrastructure.
He has previously worked as an equity analyst for AllianceBernstein and Macquarie Group, spending a further two years as a management consultant at Port Jackson Partners and two years as an institutional research sales executive with Deutsche Bank.
Anthony is a CFA Charterholder and holds bachelor’s degrees in Commerce and Law from the University of Sydney.
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