Market uncertainty means equity investors should consider positioning themselves across defensive and cyclical stocks. Pendal’s ANTHONY MORAN explains why
- Consider both defensives and cyclical stocks
- Building materials, steel and gaming less attractive
- Find out about Pendal Focus Australian Shares Fund
STOCKMARKET investors are experiencing how quickly inflation and policy responses can hit share prices.
So how should an ASX investor approach the stockmarket right now? Which sectors look promising and which should be reconsidered?
“The challenge is that all the sector outlooks are being challenged by the macro outlook at the moment — and whether central banks can engineer a soft landing, or maybe a mild recession as they get inflation under control,” says Anthony Moran, an investment analyst in Pendal’s Australian equities team.
“The uncertainty means investors need to be positioned across defensive and cyclical stocks right now.
“If we get a soft landing then cyclicals will do well and the defensives will underperform, and vice versa.”
Building materials
Some sectors may be better to avoid, says Moran. For example, the building materials sector is difficult to support given the macro outlook.
“We’ve been enjoying boom conditions globally for residential construction.
“Now we are seeing rates rise at different paces in different markets and Australia is behind the curve.

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“We are going to see faster rate rises here, and we are still a long way from the bottom of the cycle, so building materials is an easy avoid.”
Still, every sector — including building materials — will feature stocks that are more likely to outperform.
James Hardie, which earns a large chunk of its revenue in the United States, is an example. It has more exposure to renovations than new buildings, and demand in that part of the sector is more resilient.
“It’s kind of perverse. You can’t afford a new home so you renovate instead,” Moran says. James Hardie also operates in the US economy which is further through its housing cycle than Australia.
Steel is probably a sector to broadly avoid, Moran says.
The sector did well last year, but now it is normalising down. Moran said the industrial warehouse market has now peaked, and that has been a material driver of steel demand.
Gaming
Another sector to reconsider given the macro-economic climate is gaming, Moran says.

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“There was tremendous industry growth through the COVID years due to stimulus packages and a lack of alternative forms of entertainment.
“People were basically stuck at home playing mobile games or betting on the races and other sports.”
As those tailwinds subside, along with the drop in discretionary income thanks to higher cost-of-living expenses, gaming could be a sector to stay away from.
Though the newly demerged Lottery Corporation – which is the lotteries business of Tabcorp – may go against the trend.
“Essentially, it’s an infrastructure business with long dated concessions, very strong free cash flows, extremely resilient demand and some specific growth opportunities from increased digital penetration.
“It’s as much an infrastructure stock as a gaming stock and due to corporate activity there aren’t many of them left.”
What looks promising
What about sectors to invest in, given the macro-economic outlook?
“Paper and packaging is really interesting right now,” Moran says. “Some of the stocks in the sector have shown a tremendous ability to pass through inflationary cost pressures.
“In the case of Orora, it’s actually a tailwind because they’ve been able to pass on more than the price increases.
“Demand for their products is inelastic and it’s quite a defensive sector. There are also stock-specific factors that will help them.”
About Anthony Moran and Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Anthony Moran is an Australian equities investment analyst with more than 15 years of experience in a range of local and international sectors. His sector coverage includes Australian Industrials and Energy, including Building Materials, Capital Goods, Engineering & Construction, Transport, Telcos, REITs, Utilities and Infrastructure. Anthony is a CFA Charterholder and holds bachelor degrees in Commerce and Law from the University of Sydney.
Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund is Crispin Murray’s flagship Aussie equities strategy. It is a high-conviction equity fund with a 16-year track record of strong performance in a range of market conditions. The Fund features our highest conviction ideas and drives alpha from stock insight over style or thematic exposures.
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
Rising inflation and supply chain disruption are a key AGM theme this year. But ASX investors can find opportunity if they know where to look. Pendal equities analyst ANTHONY MORAN explains
- Inflation pressures the talk of AGM season
- Opportunity for some to rebuild margins
- “Classic early cycle”
RISING INFLATION could deliver improved earnings for companies agile enough to rebuild margins and capacity in the face of higher costs, says Pendal equities analyst Anthony Moran.
Supply chain constraints, rising input and energy costs and scarce labour are driving inflation higher. US consumer prices are up 6.2 per cent year-on-year to October and Australian inflation is up 3 per cent in the year to September.
But beneath the scare stories on the news, this year’s Annual General Meeting season suggests that a bout of inflation could turn out to be a benefit for some ASX companies.
“We’ve all seen the headlines around inflation and supply chain issues and there has been a bit of anxiety around that,” says Moran.
“But through AGM season we are now starting to get a real read on how inflation is affecting companies.
“What’s interesting is that companies with pricing power can pass through this cost inflation — and for some, it’s even got to the point where they are getting a little margin expansion.
“Some companies are seeing this as an opportunity.”
Several themes are converging to create favourable outcomes for certain companies, Moran says.
For a start, the very fact that inflation is headline news is conditioning consumers for higher costs, which creates a favourable environment for companies to push through price rises.

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But perhaps more importantly, consumer demand remains strong.
Household budgets are in good order. Government stimulus payments have allowed people to top up savings, rising house prices are lifting home equity and low interest rates are releasing disposable income.
Demand is particularly strong for construction materials like siding, bricks and plasterboard.
And amid the strong demand, supply constraints are hampering the ability of overseas companies to compete, allowing domestic manufacturers to regain market share while pushing through price rises.
Classic early cycle
“This is the classic early stage of the economic cycle where inflation isn’t a negative yet,” Moran says.
ASX investors should look at large companies with pricing power and domestic manufacturing capability. He nominates US-based home siding maker James Hardie and bricks and plasterboard maker CSR as examples of companies winning in the current cycle.
But watch out for companies that cannot pass on price rises. Moran points to Dominos as an example of a company finding it hard to lift prices when its marketing relies on the promise of cheap pizza.
“There will be losers from all this but at this stage we’re actually finding more winners than losers,” he says.

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The rebuilding of capacity and pricing power also gives some clues to how the debate over whether inflation is transitory or here to stay will play out, says Moran.
“We are wearing sky high inflation and freight costs in all these industries — timber is up 50 per cent, steel is up similar.
“But the response from companies to this is to build more capacity.
“And as new capacity is added, prices for all of these commodities will come off again so you will get a steady deflationary pulse.”
Supply chain outlook
Investors should watch US immigration trends for clues on how the supply chain constraints will resolve, Moran says.
“The real silver bullet for many of these issues like freight will be international migration of workers resuming.
“The fundamental issue with freight is a lack of truck drivers. To get more drivers you need higher wages and you need more migration.”
As always, investors need to consider the risks.
As inflationary pressures unwind and commodity prices fall, companies that had been benefitting from higher prices will come under pressure. And as freight normalises, imports will become competitive again.
“These things that have been positive drivers may reverse,” says Moran.
The other risk is that inflation begins to crimp demand.
“If we see a demand slowdown but inflation persisting, then pricing power may evaporate and you actually end up in the worst of both worlds with rising costs and lower revenues.
“You’ve got to watch that cycle like a hawk.
“The good news is that it appears that global policymakers are solving for slightly higher inflation and slightly higher demand for longer to help the global economy recover from COVID disruptions.”
About Anthony Moran and Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Anthony Moran is an Australian equities investment analyst with more than 15 years of experience in a range of local and international sectors. His sector coverage includes Australian Industrials and Energy, including Building Materials, Capital Goods, Engineering & Construction, Transport, Telcos, REITs, Utilities and Infrastructure. Anthony is a CFA Charterholder and holds bachelor degrees in Commerce and Law from the University of Sydney.
Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund is Crispin Murray’s flagship Aussie equities strategy. It is a high-conviction equity fund with a 16-year track record of strong performance in a range of market conditions. The Fund features our highest conviction ideas and drives alpha from stock insight over style or thematic exposures.
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
Hunger for earnings growth certainty is driving valuation of quality companies and infrastructure businesses as investors set up portfolios for the re-opening, says Pendal equities analyst Anthony Moran
- Pension funds are driving infrastructure prices to records
- Stay diversified, says analyst Anthony Moran
- Find out about Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
“PEOPLE are seeking certainty in an uncertain world,” says Pendal Australian equities analyst Anthony Moran.
“We’re seeing people willing to pay bigger premiums than we’ve ever seen before for the certainty of strong earnings momentum or the multi-decade earnings certainty of infrastructure.”
The recent ASX company reporting season shows investors are willing to pay a premium for companies with good operating momentum.
They are betting a demonstrated ability to perform well amid the pandemic disruptions means a company will be able to power out of lockdowns and deliver strong growth over the coming 12 months, Moran says.
Rising input prices have been a feature of the pandemic. Supply constraints from manufacturing disruption and a shortage of freight capacity have paired with strong demand to drive prices higher.
“One of the implications for portfolio construction is to be aware of stocks that have measures in place to manage those risks or have pricing power,” says Moran.
He highlights building materials companies James Hardie Industries (ASX: JHX) and Fletcher Building (ASX: FBU) as particularly good examples. The momentum they took into the pandemic has served them well in coping during the disruptions, he says.
“For Hardie, it was about having availability of products when their competitors didn’t — and having a strong brand and having invested a lot in customer relationships.

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“For Fletcher, they were kicked around for years by cheaper importers as they held on to being a domestic manufacturer. Now the shoe is on the other foot because of the supply interruptions hurting imports.”
These trends are likely to persist, Moran says. Companies with strong operating momentum will continue to perform well, since strong underlying demand will continue to buoy sales, he believes.
Search for stable, long-duration assets
The second big trend underpinning the market is the urgency with which big superannuation and pension funds are searching for stable, long-duration assets.
This is driving a flurry of takeovers in the infrastructure sector and pushing valuations to all-time highs. It’s led by multi-billion-dollar bids for companies such as Sydney Airport (ASX: SYD), Spark Infrastructure (ASX: SKI) and AusNet (ASX: AST).
“It’s fascinating because we’re seeing unlisted money willing to pay a materially lower cost of equity than the listed markets. They say they have a longer-term time frame. We would say they have got too much money trying to find a home.”
Moran says only particular types of companies are attractive to the big super funds: “It’s got to be long-dated, it’s got to be a hard asset and it’s got to be ESG [Environmental, Social and Governance] friendly.”
How can investors play these twin trends?
Moran says the key is to hold a diversified portfolio and not get too caught up in the interest-rate driven games played by institutional investors.

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“It’s about recognising there are different kinds of opportunities and you can make money in all sorts of ways in any given market.
“You want to have a balanced approach. If all you have in a portfolio is these stocks, the moment you get a switch in the market momentum away from growth and quality towards value, that could whip against you extremely quickly.”
It’s not a theoretical concern. A sustained lift in inflation, higher GDP revisions and rising interest rates could all potentially shift the dominant market view, says Moran.
The answer is to find exposure to stocks where there is a chance that earnings momentum will pick up as lockdowns pass or where there are clear catalysts to close the valuation gap, he says.
About Anthony Moran and Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Anthony Moran is an Australian equities investment analyst with more than 15 years of experience in a range of local and international sectors. His sector coverage includes Australian Industrials and Energy, including Building Materials, Capital Goods, Engineering & Construction, Transport, Telcos, REITs, Utilities and Infrastructure. Anthony is a CFA Charterholder and holds bachelor degrees in Commerce and Law from the University of Sydney.
Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund is Crispin Murray’s flagship Aussie equities strategy. It is a high-conviction equity fund with a 16-year track record of strong performance in a range of market conditions. The Fund features our highest conviction ideas and drives alpha from stock insight over style or thematic exposures.
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
Rate rises and inflation are impacting consumer behaviour — but there are opportunities if you know where to look, says Pendal’s SONDAL BENSAN
- Rates and inflation drive consumer change
- Household spending holding up for now
- Find out about Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
YOU may have noticed it’s tough to buy a new suitcase at the moment — but there’s suddenly an oversupply of laptops.
Rapid changes in buying behaviour — exacerbated by rising rates and inflation — mean challenges for equity investors focused on ASX-listed consumer cyclicals.
But there are opportunities if you know where to look, says Sondal Bensan, an analyst with Pendal’s Aussie equities team.
Unusual confluence
Companies selling goods and services to households are facing the twin headwinds of rising inflation and higher interest rates — even as they adapt to the post-Covid reopening.
This unusual confluence of events is causing volatility in stock prices and making it tricky to predict how the sector will ride out the cycle, says Bensan.
“There’s a big shift going on — in revenue and in costs.
“We are seeing shifts in the mix of what people are spending money on, and there’s a huge pressure wave of costs coming through that’s hitting margins.”
The Covid years were characterised by increased spending on household-related activities like homewares, renovation and electronics. But as economies revert to normal, people have shifted their spending to out-of-home experiences.
“During Covid you could barely get hold of a laptop,” says Bensan. “Now it’s almost the opposite. Now retailers are running out of luggage and they are being stuck with stock in the categories that did well during the pandemic.”

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The impact of the shift is that many consumer cyclical companies are reporting above-trend revenues even as the cycle turns because of the extra purchasing pulled forward by the pandemic.
“Some of the retailers’ revenues are 30 per cent above what they were pre-COVID. In a normal market, they might grow 8 or 9 per cent in a two-year period so they are way above trend,” he says.
“The dilemma for investors is that the next move may not be back to trend — it may be that because of the excesses you end up moving below trend.
“People that found themselves with two or three televisions during the pandemic won’t need to replace them for some time.”
Inflation impact
At the same time, companies are facing the headwind of rising inflation.
“You’ve got cost pressures across the board. Supply chain costs due to fuel, due to capacity constraints, due to domestic supply chain because people are off ill with Covid.
“You’ve had all these negative forces on supply chain costs coming through at the same time revenue could start to go below trend.”
And now households now face rising interest rates, with the Reserve Bank lifting the cash rate to 0.85 per cent on Tuesday, raising the prospect that household themselves could start to come under pressure.

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“Every 50 basis points in interest rate rises is about 0.8 per cent off household income,” says Bensan.
“And then there’s inflation itself — food inflation, petrol prices, gas and electricity prices. These are big movements in prices for households and they clip incomes.
“An extra 1 per cent on the CPI means there’s 1 per cent less money for households to spend.”
Households holding up
So far, households are holding up well.
Bensan says the pandemic prompted people to save more than they used to: the household savings rate is up to 11 per cent of income from 4 or 5 per cent pre-Covid.
“And the other component is incomes. The last data showed household wages growth at 5 per cent which is above inflation and a net positive.”
“There’s heaps of buffer. That’s why so far even though you’ve had all these things happen, revenue for discretionary stocks is holding up — even for the ones that had benefited from COVID.”
Bensan says ultimately the direction of the cyclical stocks will depend on the trajectory of interest rates.
“Another 1 per cent on rates and you’d still be fine — households have enough buffer there.
“But if it goes beyond that — NZ is talking about mortgage rates getting to 6 per cent — than it could be challenging. That would be a big drag and eat up all the buffer that’s there.
“But on balance, there’s more pessimism than what the reality probably is right now.”
What it means for investors
Bensan says one path for investors is to find companies that took the opportunity through the COVID period to restructure their businesses and reduce their cost bases.
He points to Qantas and Nine Entertainment as examples.
“A lot of companies that look like they are doing well are just pulling revenue forward from future years. If anything, they will end up worse off than they were before,” he says.
“But some others who have used the COVID period to reform will actually end up far better off.”
He says companies with variable costs bases that can be adjusted down as revenues fall will be better off than those unable to reduce costs.
And companies with resilient, subscription-based revenues will be better placed to weather a downturn in household spending than traditional retailers.
“It’s not just the revenue falling, they have inventory as well. When you have excess inventory, you have to clear it and discounts affect margins.
“Those kind of stocks have probably got a lot more earnings risk ahead of them.”
About Sondal Bensan and Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Sondal Bensan is an Australian equities investment analyst with more than 19 years of experience covering the retail, telecom, media and transport sectors. Sondal holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and a Bachelor of Science (Maths and Statistics).
Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund is Crispin Murray’s flagship Aussie equities strategy. It is a high-conviction equity fund with a 16-year track record of strong performance in a range of market conditions. The Fund features our highest conviction ideas and drives alpha from stock insight over style or thematic exposures.
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
Aussies have overseas holidays on their minds. But has Zoom impacted corporate travel for good? How will ASX travel stocks fare in 2022? Pendal analyst Sondal Bensan has some answers
- Leisure and corporate travel to bounce back
- Investors have under-priced some ASX travel stocks
- Find out about Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Will Zoom kill corporate travel? Or at least wound it?
This is arguably the biggest unknown for travel stocks in the post-Covid world, because corporate travellers are higher-yielding than leisure tourists.
“People had thought there would be a permanent loss of corporate travel demand because of video conferencing platforms like Zoom. But I think it will come back pretty strong with just a bit of a lag,” says Pendal Australian equities analyst Sondal Bensan.
“We always thought leisure would come back strong and business would be a bit of a drag. But it looks like there hasn’t been any permanent damage.
“Before Covid, demand for the sector was growing at a couple of per cent per annum. Now we’ve had two years of interruptions, but the post-Covid starting point should be a trend line above the previous level.
“That reflects both natural growth and a phenomenal wave of pent-up demand.”
A rebound in corporate travel has not been fully priced into some travel stocks, including Qantas, he says.
“The market is pricing in part of the revenue recovery but it’s not pricing in the margin outcome from that recovery.
“The profitability post-Covid from domestics and international travel could be significant. Investors have priced in domestic re-opening but not international.”

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Bensan says margins will be higher both because of stronger-than-expected demand from corporate travel and also because airlines in particular have done a very good job at maintaining pricing, even during the pandemic.
“We’ve seen it in the US, New Zealand and here. That’s been a big surprise — the industry’s ability to manage prices.”
Some travel and tourism stocks tumbled when Covid hit, then experienced a massive adjustment period and emerged more efficient. Bensan expects some airlines, including Qantas, will do the same.
Factors to watch
No sector has been hit harder by the pandemic than travel and tourism.
But the best operators have been able to withstand the tumbling revenue and restructure. And as the economy heads towards a post-Covid phase, there are other kickers that will substantially help the sector.
Throughout the Covid period there has been glimpses of what might be for the sector.
“If you look at late last year and then the June quarter, the recovery in travel was quite remarkable. It ramped back up a lot quicker than many people thought.”
There are other factors helping travel and tourism stocks.
Many will have tax losses they can carry forward. Also working capital should benefit balance sheets in the short term, based on the experience of the industry during the June quarter, when travel and tourism re-opened ahead of the most recent lockdowns.
“There will be the initial surge in cash from people starting to make bookings again,” Bensan says, and he expects travellers will make plans further in advance, elongating the gap between payment and travel.
“People’s attitudes will change. They will book in school holidays well in advance. Booking international travel will be longer duration that it ever used to be.”
About Sondal Bensan and Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Sondal Bensan is an Australian equities investment analyst with more than 19 years of experience covering the retail, telecom, media and transport sectors. Sondal holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and a Bachelor of Science (Maths and Statistics).
Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund is Crispin Murray’s flagship Aussie equities strategy. It is a high-conviction equity fund with a 16-year track record of strong performance in a range of market conditions. The Fund features our highest conviction ideas and drives alpha from stock insight over style or thematic exposures.
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
Significant Features: The Barrow Hanley Concentrated Global Share Fund is an actively managed, concentrated portfolio of global shares and is diversified across a broad range of global sharemarkets.
Fund Objective: The Fund aims to provide a return (before fees, costs and taxes) that exceeds the MSCI World ex Australia (Standard) Index (Net Dividends) in AUD over the medium to long term.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade wasn’t an isolated shock. Understanding what was already in motion is the key to reading what comes next, argues Pendal’s AMY XIE PATRICK
- Sticky inflation persists; central banks must stay hawkish
- Oil disruption, not conflict, drives market risks
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STICKY and rising inflation was already a problem before the global economy encountered the most recent oil shock.
In the US, core Personal Consumption Expenditure — the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation — has been stuck around 1% above the Fed’s 2% target since mid-2024.
Core PCE itself hasn’t been at 2% for five years.
In Australia, reflation was already underway, causing the RBA to initiate a new hiking cycle.
Markets are now pricing a peak cash rate of around 4.75%, roughly 40 basis points above the peak of the entire 2022-23 hiking cycle.
Demand has been running ahead of supply in both the US and Australia.
By the RBA’s own estimates, the output gap – the difference between how much the economy could produce without creating inflation and how much it is producing – is positive and accelerating in Australia.
Meanwhile, consumer demand in the US has remained resilient while a new cap-ex cycle is in full swing, led by AI and technology.
Higher oil prices never guarantee higher core inflation, but this robust demand backdrop gives businesses the pricing power to pass on higher costs to customers.
The job of central banks is to ensure that the inflation coming over the next few months doesn’t embed itself into persistent expectations.
Separate the conflict from the oil disruption
It’s easy to conflate the geopolitical conflict with the economic disruption, but they can – and likely will – diverge.
Ceasefire talks could extend indefinitely (just as the Ukraine conflict did), and at some point markets move on regardless.
What matters for economies is whether oil and energy supply chains normalise.
That could happen through alternative shipping routes or new sources of supply coming online, independent of diplomatic moves.
In a scenario where the conflict drags on but oil logistics recover, we can expect a higher-for-longer oil price.
At the same time, a severe demand-destruction scenario, where fuel shortages cause genuine economic contraction, becomes a much smaller tail risk.
That’s why at Pendal we are less focused on ceasefire odds and more on the following data:
1. Vessel flows: Limited, but not zero
While commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still down sharply since February, it has started to recover.
The Bloomberg graph below shows rolling 7-day transits rising at the end of April (compared to 758 on February 28).
2. Tanker indices: Elevated, but coming off the boil
The next graph below shows baltic dirty (crude oil) and clean (LNG) tanker indices.
Tanker indices are market price benchmarks for hiring oil and gas tankers. They act as a real‑time barometer of stress or recovery in the global energy supply chain.
This data suggests early signs that oil logistics are beginning to normalise from the peak of disruption.
Shortages will still be felt in parts of the world, but the probability of severe demand destruction is falling as supply chains adapt.
Our view: Inflation above recession
With demand resilient and the worst supply scenarios becoming less likely, we believe the dominant risk is inflation running higher for longer — not a growth collapse.
The positive output gap that existed before the shock means businesses can protect margins. Corporate profitability should therefore hold up reasonably well in the near term.
We expect the uncertainty of inflation data in coming weeks and months to drive episodes of bond-market volatility.
However, as long as corporate profitability and economic activity remain healthy, equity markets should be able to confidently weather this volatility.
Indeed, once tail risks become the central case, risky assets tend to stabilise and move on.
Fuel inventories are the key variable to watch for when the scales tip from inflation to growth concerns.
Inventories have also not changed meaningfully yet due to the lag between when oil leaves the Middle East to when it reaches Australia in the form of ready-to-use fuel.
In-bound shipments of fuel have also been supported by Asian refining nations running down their own excess reserves to capture higher margins.
However, those refining nations will turn towards protecting their own supplies over supernormal profits if the shortfall of global oil supply persists.
Portfolio positioning: Minimal duration, selective on credit, tactical on equities
The Pendal team has cut portfolio duration back to minimal levels.
With growth resilient and inflation elevated, duration doesn’t offer compelling risk-reward.
The market is pricing two more hikes from the RBA, and no policy change from the Fed.
We’d rather preserve flexibility and add duration when either inflation fears are more meaningfully priced into yields, or the data mix shifts enough to suggest that bond markets have already discounted the worst.
On credit, we made an active decision to de-risk in early March – not on a prediction of what would happen, but because the asymmetry was clear.
If markets normalised, we could replenish exposures from primary issuance, likely at more attractive levels than pre-war.
If conditions deteriorated sharply, the additional cash gave us the flexibility to either protect liquidity or selectively buy into forced selling.
As it turns out, credit markets have remained functional and primary activity has picked up. We’ve used that window to rebuild some exposures, but we’re being deliberate about it.
Australian credit markets have been well supported in recent weeks due to the higher all-in yield that corporate bonds now offer.
However, most of that rise in yields is due to risk-free rates reflecting inflation concerns, rather than credit spreads reflecting higher credit risks from corporate borrowers in a more uncertain macro environment.
It’s vital to treat the interest rate-setting and the credit exposure of the portfolio as two separate and intentional choices.
The two can behave very differently depending on the economic and market backdrop.
When adding corporate bonds to our portfolios, we want to ensure that we are being compensated specifically for taking on extra credit risk.
On equities, fundamentals remain reasonably supportive in the near-term.
Positive demand conditions, the ability to pass through costs, and the stabilising effect of tail risks being well-flagged all point in the same direction.
The key watch item remains the consumer tipping point.
If demand destruction comes from fuel shortages or the cost of living itself, the equity story changes. We’ll be watching the data carefully for early signs of that transition.

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Amy Xie Patrick,
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Bottom line: Higher for now, with eyes on demand
As we can see, the oil shock met with pre-existing economic trends that were bond-bearish: sticky inflation above central bank targets and resilient economic growth.
This backdrop does not afford the RBA the luxury to “look through” the supply-side shock, and in line with market predictions has again raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.35%.
While we want to see greater bond market discounting of inflation headwinds, we continue to monitor the ability of both businesses and consumers to deal with rising costs.
In the meantime, our income portfolios continue to access core income through Australian credit markets, as well as having the option to tactically engage in return boosters such as Australian equities as market sentiment recovers from recent volatility.
In a cycle where the inflation and growth mix can shift quickly, preserving the option – rather than the obligation – to add interest rate exposure is one of the most valuable tools that we have.
About Amy Xie Patrick and Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest team
Amy is Pendal’s Head of Income Strategies. She has extensive expertise and experience in emerging markets, global high yield and investment grade credit and holds an honours degree in economics from Cambridge University.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia. The team oversees some $20 billion invested across income, composite, pure alpha, global and Australian government strategies.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
About Pendal Group
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
In this new podcast, AMY XIE PATRICK, head of income strategies at Pendal, unpacks how geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation and higher oil prices are reshaping bond markets
You can also listen to this podcast on Apple or Spotify
An excerpt from this podcast with Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick:
Amy Xie Patrick explains why inflation expectations — rather than growth fears — are driving yields higher, and why investors need to be selective as credit spreads fail to fully reflect downside risks.
“Even if all of the Middle Eastern issues were to go away tomorrow, I think naturally the oil market would just embed a higher level of structural risk premia in its price. And as a result, what I would be looking for the direction of bonds in the very near term is for more of those inflation fears to play out,” Xie Patrick says.
The podcast also explores lingering AI‑related credit concerns, liquidity risks, and what this complex backdrop means for duration, credit exposure and equities.
Listen to the full podcast to hear more on traversing the fixed income markets in uncertain times.

Find out about
Pendal Dynamic Income Fund
Amy Xie Patrick,
Head of Income Strategies
About Amy Xie Patrick and Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest team
Amy is Pendal’s Head of Income Strategies. She has extensive expertise and experience in emerging markets, global high yield and investment grade credit and holds an honours degree in economics from Cambridge University.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia. The team oversees some $20 billion invested across income, composite, pure alpha, global and Australian government strategies.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
About Pendal Group
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
In this new podcast Pendal’s head of government bond strategies TIM HEXT provides his insights on inflation concerns arising from the Iran conflict and what that means for fixed income investors.
You can also listen to this podcast on Apple or Spotify
An excerpt from this interview with Pendal’s head of government bond strategies Tim Hext:
Heightened geopolitical risks and rising oil prices have re-ignited inflation concerns, creating uncertainty for central banks and markets.
Pendal head of government bond strategies Tim Hext explains why second round inflation effects matter more than petrol prices themselves, and why the RBA faces a difficult balancing act on rates.
Despite the volatility, government bond yields are at levels not seen since 2011, presenting compelling medium to long term value, particularly for investors seeking inflation protection.
Listen to the full conversation to understand why fixed income may deserve a closer look in portfolios right now.

Find out about
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest funds
About Tim Hext and Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest boutique
Tim Hext is a Pendal portfolio manager and head of government bond strategies in our Income and Fixed Interest team.
Tim has extensive experience in banking, financial markets and funding including senior positions with NSW Treasury Corporation (TCorp), Westpac Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Deutsche Bank, Bain & Co and Swiss Bank Corporation.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
About Pendal
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
In 2023, Pendal became part of Perpetual Limited (ASX:PPT), bringing together two of Australia’s most respected active asset management brands to create a global leader in multi-boutique asset management with autonomous, world-class investment capabilities and a growing leadership position in ESG.