Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week according to portfolio manager Jim Taylor. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams.
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THE US Fed continued to temper expectations around a pivot away from its hawkish stance last week — and US 10-year yields rose 14bps to 2.98% in response.
US economic data continued to paint a mixed picture, while there were some ugly inflationary prints in Europe.
Equity markets were generally quiet last week.
The S&P 500 shed 1.16%, driven by softness late in the week. The S&P/ASX 300 finished up 1.32%.
Commodities were generally weaker, encouraging the view that inflation pressures continue to diminish.
Fed policy
Various Fed spokespeople continued to pour cold water on the notion of an imminent shift to less hawkish policy.
St Louis Fed president James Bullard said the aim was to place “significant downward pressure on inflation” without dragging rate increases into next year. He was leaning to another 75bp hike and pushing the rate “higher and into restrictive territory”.
San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly noted that hiking 50 or 75bps next meeting would be a “reasonable” way to get rates above 3% by the end of 2023 — and a bit higher next year.
Both said the Fed would be unlikely to reverse course quickly, rejecting the notion of a “hump-shaped” path of rate hikes followed by aggressive cuts.
The Fed is grappling with the contradiction of soft headline GDP numbers, strong payroll growth, a weak housing market, uncertainty over the extent and impact of the improving supply-chain story, and still-elevated current inflation.
Hence the repeated focus on data dependency in the eight-week interval between the July and September meetings.
US economy
Retail sales data was solid. The preferred measure of core sales (excluding cars, petrol and food) rose 0.8% in July (and 9.3% annualised for the three months to July) compared to the previous three months.
Higher petrol prices did not have a noticeable effect. US consumers seem happy to run down the mountain of savings they accumulated in the early stages of the pandemic.
On the flip side, there was an unexpected plunge in the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. This flags further weakness at a national level.
The NAHB housing market index fell to 49 in August, down from 55 in July. All the components — present sales, expected sales, and buyer traffic — fell in August, tracking the steep and sustained decline in mortgage demand, which is yet to find a bottom after a near 30% drop from December’s peak.
July existing home sales fell 5.9% m/m and 20% y/y to 4.81m units, the lowest since June 2020.
The US National Association of Realtors joined the National Association of Home Builders in describing the market as a “housing recession”.
Australian economy
Australia’s Wage Price Index (ex bonuses) increased +0.7% in the second quarter of 2022. This was a bit below the expected +0.8% q/q.
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Annual growth accelerated 20bp to +2.6% year-on-year but remained well below headline CPI inflation (+6.1%y-o-y).
Public sector wages grew 2.4% y-o-y. Annual private-sector wage growth including bonuses rose to 3.3% y-o-y (2.7% ex bonuses).
This is the fastest pace in 10 years.
Private-sector workers receiving wage adjustments in the quarter (most workers only receive adjustments in the September quarter) achieved an average pay increase of 3.8%.
Wage-setting in Australia remains much less responsive to labour market tightness than many countries. This helps reduce the risk of a wage price spiral.
Australia’s unemployment rate fell to a 48-year low of 3.4% in July. Measured employment fell 41k m/m (vs +25k expected).
There was divergence between the full-time component (-87k m/m) and part-time employment (+46k m/m).
Employment again rose solidly for 15-to-24-year-olds (+13.3k m/m) and the youth unemployment rate fell sharply to a new historical low.
China
The People’s Bank of China surprised the market with a 10bp cut in interest rates following weak July economic data and ongoing pressure in housing.
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Like many of Beijing’s recent moves, this seems aimed at stemming further weakness rather than to genuinely stimulate the economy.
China has also had to ration power and water to manufacturers as a result of drought.
ASX reporting season
Earnings per share (EPS) for FY22 continues to beat expectations, with more positive surprises from ASX 100 companies and financials.
Free cash flow has been better than expected, especially in the resources sector.
Capital returns have disappointed, with net dividend misses and fewer buy-backs than expected. Companies seem keen to keep some dry powder on the balance sheet in an uncertain environment.
Inventories are still higher than expected in aggregate, which is a risk to earnings and may signal a slowing cycle.
The number of stocks with disappointing guidance is high. So far twice as many stocks have FY23 earnings and dividend downgrades (28%) relative to upgrades (14%).
Consensus expectations for market FY23 EPS growth have moderated as a result — but remain in the low single digits.
About Crispin Murray and Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Crispin Murray is Pendal’s Head of Equities. He has more than 27 years of investment experience and leads one of the largest equities teams in Australia. Crispin’s Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund has beaten the benchmark in 12 years of its 16-year history (after fees), across a range of market conditions.
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
A monthly insight from James Syme, Paul Wimborne and Ada Chan (pictured above), co-managers of Pendal’s Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund
WHICH emerging markets look good right now? The clues are in the latest global manufacturing data.
MANY emerging markets display a high sensitivity to global risk appetite — which means the asset class is often regarded as a barometer of investor sentiment.
This can overlook the substantial exposure of some EMs to the strength of the global economy, and the visibility into aggregate demand that these markets can provide.
We believe recent economic data from some of these countries shows very concerning signs.
South Korea and Taiwan
The first and most important countries to consider are the two big East Asian export economies of South Korea and Taiwan.
As exporters of electronic goods, vehicles, and chemicals — as well as providers of airborne and seaborne freight services — these two countries are highly sensitive to the global economic cycle.
(As investment-grade borrowers with large, sustained current account surpluses they have much less sensitivity to risk appetite).
The single most disturbing data point is Taiwan’s July PMI print of 44.6, which suggests a rapid deterioration in business expectations. (Figures above 50 indicate positive expectations; below 50 is negative).
Meanwhile, South Korean manufacturing PMI for July was 49.8 — the lowest since 2020.
South Korean earnings expectations have been drifting lower since they peaked in September 2021, and Taiwanese earnings expectations may also now be declining.
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Central Europe
Things look worse in the European export economies of Central Europe.
Poland shows signs of an accelerating slowdown with manufacturing PMI at 42.1 in July — fully 10 points lower than April.
There is a similar story in the Czech Republic with July PMI down to 46.8 and consumer and business confidence dipping lower.
These results are not a surprise, given collapsing business expectations in the regional heavyweight economy of Germany. But they add to a troubling picture of global demand.
Mexico
The third major cyclical exporter is Mexico.
Mexico’s business survey data is complicated, with two separate time series.
For July the Mexican manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys were both 52.2 — showing expansion.
But the S&P manufacturing PMI survey came in at 48.5, indicating contraction.
Given the much better net energy trade position of North America compared to Europe and Asia, it may be that Mexico fares much better — and we remain positive on the market.
South Africa
Another market which we are positive on — but where survey data has weakened recently — is South Africa.
There the July manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.6, even if vehicle sales and credit growth remain robust.
We continue to think that very strong commodity exports will support aggregate demand in South Africa. But economic data there will need careful monitoring.
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Finding EM opportunities
We consistently express the view that opportunity within emerging markets is more reliable than the opportunity of the asset class as a whole. In other words there are opportunities in a select handful of EM countries.
There are always economies and markets in upswings. The current environment is no different.
The same commodity export story that is supporting Mexico and South Africa is coming through very strongly elsewhere.
In Brazil the services PMI for July reached the incredibly strong level of 60.8 — a new high. This indicates a full-blown domestic demand boom is underway.
Brazilian earnings estimates have also been rising as strong corporate results come through.
Indonesian GDP growth is expected to exceed 5%, with the July manufacturing PMI at 51.3 and consumer confidence very strong.
Finally in the Gulf, high oil prices are driving intense economic upswings. July PMI survey data for the UAE (one of our preferred markets) was 55.4, while in neighbouring Saudi Arabia it reached 56.3, with Saudi GDP growth for Q2 of 11.8% YoY.
Higher commodity prices act as drags on most global economies, while the strong dollar and higher interest rates are further headwinds.
Right now many commodity economies are experiencing strong growth that’s hard to find anywhere else in the world. We believe this will attract increased interest from global investors.
We remain overweight Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and the UAE.
About Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund
James Symes, Paul Wimborne and Ada Chan are senior portfolio managers and co-managers of Pendal’s Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund.
The fund aims to add value through a combination of country allocation and individual stock selection.
The country allocation process is based on analysis of a country’s economic growth, monetary policy, market liquidity, currency, governance/politics and equity market valuation.
The stock selection process focuses on buying quality growth stocks at attractive valuations.
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Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
Regnan launches first impact report; Why it’s time to stay diversified; How fixed interest investors can make a difference; Two very different inflation scenarios
What does the new monthly CPI indicator mean for investors? Pendal’s TIM HEXT explains
STARTING in October, Australian investors will finally get a monthly snapshot of inflation data.
This is very welcome news to all, particularly the RBA which relies on data to set policy.
The new monthly CPI indicator has a number of shortcomings, which will likely be addressed over the next few years by more budget or better technology.
Some basic facts are:
- Only 43% of the basket is updated live every month. These are items where electronic data points are easily collected such as supermarkets, airlines, rents and home construction costs
- 10% are administrative prices that reset annually – so they are effectively accounted for every month, eg education in February, private health insurance in April and council rates in September.
- The remaining 47% are collected quarterly – but not all in the same month of the quarter. That is, they’re spread across the three months of a quarter. I presume this is a resourcing issue since collection is harder.
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The latter point will make predicting monthly numbers difficult at first.
At Pendal we’re now building out our models to help predict monthly movements, given markets will respond.
For example, utility costs are going up sharply. But they will only be collected in the final month of the quarter – and so will impact at the same time as quarterly numbers.
Restaurant meals though – another inflation pinch point – will appear in the monthly number prior to the quarterly number.
On average, two thirds of the CPI basket is effectively now monthly.
This helps make an already lagging indicator lag less.
It causes issues when the RBA bases policy on data that’s an average three months behind. This was shown late last year when the official quarterly CPI numbers were slow to pick up the rising monthly inflation.
Inflation bonds will continue to index off the quarterly CPI, which is still the ultimate source of truth.
Inflation bonds remain very cheap and despite a likely tailing off in goods inflation in the months ahead.
Services inflation will remain stubbornly higher in the medium term, whether measured monthly or quarterly.
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About Tim Hext and Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest boutique
Tim Hext is a Pendal portfolio manager and head of government bond strategies in our Income and Fixed Interest team.
Tim has extensive experience in banking, financial markets and funding including senior positions with NSW Treasury Corporation (TCorp), Westpac Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Deutsche Bank, Bain & Co and Swiss Bank Corporation.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
About Pendal
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
In 2023, Pendal became part of Perpetual Limited (ASX:PPT), bringing together two of Australia’s most respected active asset management brands to create a global leader in multi-boutique asset management with autonomous, world-class investment capabilities and a growing leadership position in ESG.
In October Australia will move from quarterly to monthly reporting of inflation data. Pendal assistant portfolio manager ANNA HONG explains what that means
AUSTRALIA moves to monthly Consumer Price Index releases in October, bringing us in line with other major developed economies.
The decision, announced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, heralds a new era for investors.
Why is up-to-date inflation data important?
Price stability is crucial in the allocation of resources.
Prices are economic signals. Large fluctuations change the expectations of businesses and individuals, leading to potential misallocation of resources.
Price stability is therefore one of the core objectives of central banks around the world.
It’s also why most central banks are now taking the full-throttle approach with rate hikes – they want to rein in inflation.
Because the CPI influences monetary policies, financial markets use it as a bellwether for the direction of monetary policy actions.
In 2022 this has led to markets swinging between fears of runaway inflation and fears of recession.
In Australia CPI data is traditionally released quarterly, compared to the US where it is monthly.
Hence, in between quarterly AU CPI releases, financial markets have largely looked to the US CPI numbers as a guide.
Problems arise because the direction of US CPI numbers does not always align with the AU CPI outlook.
This move to fill the calendar gap with timelier AU CPI data will help the RBA with policy decisions and give the markets better direction.
What are the changes?
Same: The new monthly CPI will include all items within the quarterly CPI basket. The weights on each of the categories for the monthly CPI will also align with the quarterly CPI.
Different: Due to the complexities and timing of collecting and collating data, not every item in the CPI basket will be updated every month.
Prices will be carried forward for items without newly collected information — assuming zero change from the last period when the fresh price was collected.
Will it be useful?
There will still be gaps between monthly and quarterly releases.
But the monthly data has been designed to capture the bulk of information within the quarterly data.
Every category of prices will see an update in the monthly releases apart from Communication.
Non-volatile goods prices such as Alcohol and Tobacco and Housing will be fully or mostly accounted for.
Categories with items that experience more volatile price changes – such as Recreation and Culture – will be representative. Though not all series within those categories will get a price refresh in the monthly updates.
What it means for investors
ABS mapping of historical data shows the monthly release will closely track the quarterly.
That is positive news.
This will be a tailwind helping the RBA achieve a soft-landing by providing policymakers with the information needed to identify key inflection points before over-correcting with rate hikes.
It will also give markets better information on potential policy decisions, reducing the need to second-guess the Reserve Bank as demonstrated by aggressive pre-emptive selloffs between Q3 2021 and Q2 2022.
Those circumstances will be supportive of bonds at current levels, allowing them to perform as an income-generating, defensive asset in a balanced portfolio.
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About Anna Hong and Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest team
Anna Hong is an assistant portfolio manager with Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest team.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia. In 2020 the team won the Australian Fixed Interest category in the Zenith awards.
With the goal of building the most defensive line of funds in Australia, the team oversees A$22 billion invested across income, composite, pure alpha, global and Australian government strategies.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
About Pendal Group
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week according to our head of equities Crispin Murray. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams.
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THE reluctant rally continues with the S&P 500 up 3.3% last week and the S&P/ASX 300 gaining 1.4%. They are now down 9.3% and 3.7% respectively for 2022.
The US market is now up more than 15% from its low and the rally has lasted 32 days.
Key drivers include:
- Positioning: Systematic and institutional investors have been sitting on their biggest equity underweights in years.
- Lower volatility: This leads to increased participation by systematic investors
- Better sentiment: Job data has helped quell the view that the economy is facing imminent recession.
- Strong US earnings season: Hasn’t validated the pre-season market de-rating
- Lower commodity prices: Particularly in US gas which is helping dampened inflation expectations
- Early signs of goods inflation slowing as supply chains free up
A small shift in fundamental view — that things are not as bad as feared — has prompted a material shift into equities by various systematic approaches. This caught institutional investors off-guard.
This is the nature of bear market rallies — sharp and often short. We now find ourselves at a key point.
In the short term we’re likely to have a quiet couple of weeks ahead of the Jackson Hole central banking conference on August 25-27.
We suspect the market will be range-bound given it is high summer in the north, there are limited new data releases, we are near a large technical resistance level for the S&P 500 and it appears the sharp move in systematic investors has played out.
Beyond that there remains a wide distribution of outcomes:
- Inflation rolls over, the economy has a mild recession at worse, earnings declines are limited and the easing cycle starts at the back-end of 2023. In this scenario the market may consolidate, but ultimately moves higher.
- Inflation proves more persistent, driven by tight labour market and higher energy prices as the economy runs too hot and China re-opens. Central banks need to continue to tighten into the downturn and earnings decline more significantly, taking equities lower.
There is probably enough evidence to indicate the latter scenario does not take us to new lows.
The key to the call remains the main drivers of inflation: the job market (particularly job ads and wage pressures), corporate pricing power and commodity markets.
Economics and policy
US year-on-year CPI (8.5%) and PPI (9.8%) were lower than expected.
But one month does not create a trend — and there was enough in the data for both inflation bulls and bears to validate their outlooks.
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Core CPI (5.9%) was 0.3% month-on-month, a lot lower than recent months. But it is at 0.5% excluding the more idiosyncratic categories such as used cars and airline tickets.
Core goods inflation is falling away reasonably quickly. Energy represents 34% of current inflation and is heading down as petrol prices drop.
Forward indicators of inflation — including the Crude Non-farm Materials ex Energy PPI which is a directional indicator for the Finished Goods (ex-energy and food) PPI — are moving in the right direction.
Freight rates also continue to decline.
All this underpinned more positive sentiment in market last week.
But in the medium term, categories such as direct rent and owner’s equivalent rent become more important. While these have begun to decelerate, it is marginal at this point and is still running above 8%.
Unit labour costs also remain too high, while there is no sign of a turn in the Atlanta wage tracker.
This means the Fed has had to re-iterate its vigilance on inflation.
China
There is some hope that cumulative stimulus measures will begin to drive economic recovery, particularly as we head into Autumn when construction activity should pick up.
We are cautious on calling this too soon. Some key lead indicators remain negative, notably property stock performance.
Credit data continues to be weaker than expected, reflecting low demand given the zero-Covid policy.
Australia
The market continues to grind higher, helped last week by BHP’s (BHP) bid for OzMinerals (OZL) which fired up the resource sector.
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Small caps also continue their recovery, outperforming the S&P/ASX 300 by 8% QTD. This is helped by a combination of short covering and a position squeeze.
There is an emerging view that the government and RBA are looking to deliver a soft landing by allowing inflation to run a bit hotter than normal — on the premise that commodity prices should stop rising, and immigration can ultimately resolve labour shortages.
In this context banks don’t face downside risk on bad debts and some of the consumer-exposed stocks may now be pricing in too much downside.
As in the US, this is contingent on commodity prices staying subdued and labour markets loosening.
Markets
It was interesting that US bond yields couldn’t break the 2.51% low of August 8 in response to the lower CPI number.
June’s hot CPI number coincided with the peak in bond yields (3.5% on June 14). Since then we’ve seen a 100bp move down, before a 33bp rise, closing the week at 2.83%.
Bonds could trade back towards 3% for several reasons:
- Economic data is surprising on the upside. The Fed is likely to be uncomfortable without further slowing, given inflation remains too high.
- The Total Financial Conditions index has begun to loosen, reflecting more confidence in the economy. This works against the Fed’s goals, which may lead them to signal rates stay higher for longer.
- Quantitative tightening beginning to kick in, which will potentially act as a headwind to lower yields.
- Yield curve inversion is implying too quick a reversal in US rates, particularly given economy and FCI trends
Given this, we do not expect to see bond yield moves lower — and they may move higher within a trading band.
This does not necessarily mean bad news for equities, but it makes further moves higher harder.
Given the moves seen so far we expect a period of consolidation coming soon.
About Crispin Murray and Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Crispin Murray is Pendal’s Head of Equities. He has more than 27 years of investment experience and leads one of the largest equities teams in Australia. Crispin’s Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund has beaten the benchmark in 12 years of its 16-year history (after fees), across a range of market conditions.
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
What the latest sentiment data means; why global equities look good; how to think about China now; an impact investing opportunity
Consumers and business can only be out of step for so long — and 2023 will see a reckoning, writes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies TIM HEXT
WE ALL exist in the same economy — but you’d be forgiven for thinking otherwise.
This week we had new consumer and business sentiment data.
Early last year consumer confidence boomed as escaped from lockdowns with money in our pockets.
Sentiment hit an all-time high of 118 in the April 2021 Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence survey.
Now we have resumed our gloomy outlook. Weighed down by rising prices and rate hikes we’ve plunged to 81 — not far off the March 2020 low.
For business, however, it’s hardly looked better.
The NAB Business Survey sees business conditions at 20, not far off the April 2021 high of 30 (it averages around 5).
Business outlook, as measured by confidence, is a more modest 7, nearer the long-term averages.
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What’s going on?
Clearly while we’re worrying about the future we’re still spending our pent-up savings.
Rate hikes of 1.75% to date have been manageable. But the next 1% this year will start to bite — heavily for some.
Tight supply of goods and services means businesses are able to pass on higher costs, maintaining margins and seeing conditions as strong.
Of course, consumers and business can only be out of step for so long — and 2023 will see a reckoning.
For now pessimists are winning the day as markets price in rates topping out early next year.
Growth will slow, but whether the landing is soft or hard is a guessing game that will be heavily debated.
Challenging times for everyone but particularly for central banks trying to bring down inflation without a recession.
However it does mean bonds are back — and their role as insurance in these highly uncertain times should not be underestimated.
About Tim Hext and Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest boutique
Tim Hext is a Pendal portfolio manager and head of government bond strategies in our Income and Fixed Interest team.
Tim has extensive experience in banking, financial markets and funding including senior positions with NSW Treasury Corporation (TCorp), Westpac Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Deutsche Bank, Bain & Co and Swiss Bank Corporation.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
About Pendal
Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
In 2023, Pendal became part of Perpetual Limited (ASX:PPT), bringing together two of Australia’s most respected active asset management brands to create a global leader in multi-boutique asset management with autonomous, world-class investment capabilities and a growing leadership position in ESG.
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week according to our head of equities Crispin Murray. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams.
Find out about Crispin’s Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Find out about Crispin’s sustainable Pendal Horizon Fund
JULY’S more positive tone was tested last week by a combination of:
- US Fed officials rolling back a perceived “pivot” signal from Chair Powell the previous week
- Strong US employment data (which is ironically poor news in the current environment)
- China-Taiwan tensions
The first two points saw bond yields gain 34bp at the short end and 18bp for 10-year Treasuries. The yield curve is now more negative than it was in 2007 and the US dollar has started rallying again.
Despite this, equities ground out small gains, led again by growth stocks.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and S&P/ASX 300 gained 1.1%.
This resilience is surprising. We suspect it has as much to do with the market’s previous negative positioning and sentiment as any fundamentals.
The recovery has prompted some breaks in the previous bearish consensus.
We have seen a highly rated US technical analyst turn positive on the premise that the oil price and bond yields have peaked.
Energy is critical to the outlook.
A bounce-back in the oil price would kick-start stagflation concerns; a continued fall would help drive bond yields lower.
Locally, the focus will shift to stock specifics as reporting season kicks off this week.
US economics
US payroll data and household survey came in well ahead of expectations.
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This suggests the job market remains strong despite weakening lead indicators, a technical “recession” signal and headlines about tech companies laying off workers:
- The US economy is averaging more than 400,000 new jobs a month over three and six months. The three-month average has fallen from 600,000 — though it needs to come down to 50,000-75,000 to be consistent with looser wage pressure.
- Total US payrolls are back to pre-pandemic levels, though leisure and hospitality roles are 7% lower. The overall unemployment rate is at its lowest since 1969.
- Three-month average wage growth (measured by average hourly earnings) has ticked up and remains stuck with a 5-handle. This needs to fall back to the 3% range to help inflation back to 2%.
- The participation rate was down month on month and remains stubbornly low versus pre-pandemic. Older workers are still showing reluctance to return to work.
There are early signs that the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed is rolling over. But we have a long way to go to normalise and reduce pressure on wages.
These are all co-incident or lagging indicators.
It’s highly likely a weakening economy will start to flow into jobs in the next few months.
But the starting point is higher and the amount of slack needed is rising. This makes the Fed’s job harder.
Fed speak
Some outer members of the Fed worked this week to rectify the interpretation of Powell’s press conference, re-iterating the priority of fighting inflation.
Combined with the employment data this moved the short end of the yield curve in particular.
The market is back to pricing an implied 67bp rate hike for September.
The Fed’s initial plan is to slow growth below trend — which should loosen the job market, leading to lower wage growth and inflation.
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It’s important to remember that equity markets form part of the overall total financial conditions index, which has an impact on the pace of economic growth.
The Fed had shifted this sufficiently to be consistent with 1% GDP growth — in line with the aim of a soft landing.
However the reaction to Powell’s press conference last week meant total financial conditions were beginning to ease.
The Fed needed to check that move to keep conditions conducive to below-trend growth.
US Inflation Reduction Act
This US$430 billion bill — intended to fight climate change, lower drug prices and raise some corporate taxes — has been further amended and is now highly likely to be passed in next few weeks.
The most relevant component is an emphasis on clean-energy investments, including increased subsidies for electric vehicles.
This is tied to requirements that companies source components from countries with free-trade agreements with the US, to prevent reliance on China. This should be a boon for the Korean battery industry.
It remains to be seen whether the capacity to deliver this exists. But for the moment sentiment towards electric vehicles and battery materials has improved.
Bank of England
The UK highlights the policy conundrum that emerges as stagflation takes hold.
The Bank of England now predicts five quarters of recession with inflation peaking above 13% this year and remaining above 9% next year.
The need to quash inflation takes precedence, so the BOE raised rates 50bps despite predicting recession.
The UK is facing a crisis in power prices, which is not the case in the US or Australia.
This is a reminder that energy prices are a critical factor in determining where all markets go.
Taiwan
Markets remained relatively sanguine around the tensions attached to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
The view among most geopolitical experts is that Beijing is not confident in the success of any invasion and will not yet start to impose a blockade — the likely first step.
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That said, there is a widespread view among western military experts that neither Taiwan nor the US is sufficiently prepared for any cross-Strait attack.
This is quite different to the preparation that had been happening in Ukraine for the past few years.
Pelosi’s visit and the Chinese reaction may be a catalyst for action to rectify this — which may also trigger Beijing to act before those preparations are in place.
This remains the single biggest long-term geopolitical risk for markets.
Markets
The big debate is whether the market’s rebound is a bear market rally or whether we have put in the lows for this cycle.
At this point the rebound is almost bang on the average bear market rally (in terms of rebound and length) in the S&P 500 since 1950.
The market breadth of the rally is not yet consistent with a change in trend.
The rule of thumb is you need to see 90% of stocks above the 50-day moving average to signal a change in market direction. We are at 73%. However this could continue to climb.
The yield curve is also sending a negative signal.
Its inversion is signalling recession, which would lead to a decline in earnings and pull the markets lower.
The challenge to this perspective is the unusual speed and scale of the increases and the market’s current confidence that inflation will be brought back down, which is reflected in long bond yields.
The bull case for equity markets is:
- They have bounced off long-term technical support levels
- Oil prices have peaked, with demand weakening
- Bond yields have peaked, helped by lower commodity prices
The importance of oil
The positive case is underpinned by the view that oil prices won’t bounce back.
We see this as a potential negative surprise for markets. There are several reasons why oil could behave differently in this cycle:
- Inventories are low, despite tapping the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The latter probably has capacity for three more months of contributions to supply, with the run rate falling in that time.
- Spare capacity is very limited, as shown by OPEC increasing output by only 100,000 barrels per day for September. There is no buffer for demand recovery or for any geopolitical shock.
- Europe plans to tighten sanctions on Russian oil in December, which could limit access to 0.01 to 1.5m bpd
- China at some point will re-open its economy, increasing oil demand by 500K to 1m bpd
- Oil demand may surprise on the upside due to fuel oil. This is the first downturn where alternate fuel prices (notably gas and coal) are far higher than oil. This is likely to see some substitution to oil — not away from it as is normally the case. The US gas market has remained surprisingly tight despite the closure of the Freeport LNG export facility.
This may not play out for a few more months, given US SPR is still being released, China is set to run with zero covid for another few months and the global economy is slowing.
For time being the weaker oil/lower bond signal could remain in place, but it is something to watch.
Australia
The S&P/ASX 300 is now down only 4.1% in 2022. This followed a US rotation to tech, away from energy last week.
Defensive sectors such as staples continue to perform as cash is put into market reluctantly.
We continue to see a bounce-back in small-cap performance which appears correlated to market direction.
About Crispin Murray and Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund
Crispin Murray is Pendal’s Head of Equities. He has more than 27 years of investment experience and leads one of the largest equities teams in Australia. Crispin’s Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund has beaten the benchmark in 12 years of its 16-year history (after fees), across a range of market conditions.
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
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