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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets: Why Korea requires caution despite strong recent performance
The positive feedback loop we’re expecting to see in emerging market economies
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The positive feedback loop we’re expecting to see in emerging market economies
‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
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‘Emerging markets crisis’? That’s a wildly overstated view, say our experts
Some analysts have described a pattern of a weaker dollar and rising bond yields in the US as a ‘classic emerging markets crisis’.
“As veterans of actual emerging crises dating back to 1994, we consider that view to be wildly overstated,” writes Pendal’s EM team in their latest analysis.
In spite of volatility and weakness in core US financial markets, the currencies of almost all emerging markets strengthened against the US dollar in March and April. Meanwhile bond yields fell for the majority of major EMs.
“Emerging markets are driven by two major global drivers: international capital flows and international trade.
“A weaker dollar represents capital flowing out of the US and into the rest of the world – and a weaker dollar has consistently been positive for emerging markets over the past 30 years.
“Although evolving tariff policies threaten a downturn in global trade, the message from financial markets is that investor uncertainty about US economic policies is a clear positive for emerging economies and for investors in emerging markets.”
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Emerging markets: Which countries are best-suited to these market conditions
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Emerging markets: Which countries are best-suited to these market conditions
Samir Mehta: The role reversal driving equities in China and India
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Samir Mehta: The role reversal driving equities in China and India
Why our emerging markets team believes the asset class could be entering a bull market
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Why our emerging markets team believes the asset class could be entering a bull market
Why our emerging markets team remains ‘zero-weighted’ on the Philippines
Samir Mehta: A stealth bull market in China means it’s time to revisit Asian equities
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Samir Mehta: A stealth bull market in China means it’s time to revisit Asian equities
Samir Mehta: Trump tariffs are unlikely to impact China’s big online retailers
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Samir Mehta: Trump tariffs are unlikely to impact China’s big online retailers
Investors should be ready for any scenario as Donald Trump weaponises trade tariffs.
This week we await the outcome of a call between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping to find out if tit-for-tat US-China tariffs will be paused as they were for Mexico and Canada.
But either way it would take a lot to disrupt the momentum of China’s big online retailers, argues Pendal’s Samir Mehta.
Last year China’s four big online shopping platforms – Alibaba’s AliExpress, TikTok, Shein and Temu – shipped almost $US200 billion worth of goods internationally. Of that, some $45 billion went to the US.
In anticipation of tariffs, Temu and Shein had already modified bulk shipping, diversified logistics and expanded their US networks. Meanwhile as TikTok’s future hung in the balance, Americans flocked to another Chinese app: Xiaohongshu.
“When a product provides a value proposition far superior to alternatives, tariffs might temporarily alter – but not permanently change – human behaviour,” says Samir.
Samir Mehta: How luxury stock Prada is making a fashionable comeback
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Samir Mehta: How luxury stock Prada is making a fashionable comeback
Samir Mehta: Tune in to Tencent Music if you’re looking for a hidden gem
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Samir Mehta: Tune in to Tencent Music if you’re looking for a hidden gem
WHO is the Bob Dylan of music streaming?
That’s the question Pendal’s Samir Mehta posed at the Sohn Hearts & Minds Conference in Adelaide last month.
For most, the answer is obvious: Sweden’s Spotify has revolutionised the way we consume music, dominating developed markets and setting the benchmark for subscription-based streaming.
But in investing – just like in music – real success is found beyond the obvious.
For every Bob Dylan – whose sandpaper voice and sermon-like lyrics changed the face of music worldwide – there’s a Sixto Rodriguez: overlooked by mainstream audiences until an Oscar-winning documentary, Searching For Sugar Man, revealed he had been quietly building a cult following in small but devoted markets.
“Spotify has done a brilliant job in developed markets, but there’s lots of other markets that still have potential,” says Mehta, who manages the Pendal Asian Share Fund.
“What we need to do is search for the Sugar Man of streaming.”
“Music follows exactly the same trends across the world – and the Sixto Rodriguez of streaming is China’s Tencent Music Entertainment.”
Emerging markets: What we learned from one of the biggest election years ever
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Emerging markets: What we learned from one of the biggest election years ever
If it feels like a hectic year for emerging markets investors, you’d be right.
So far 66 national elections have taken place around the world in 2024, according to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance – an intergovernmental organisation that supports democracy.
And another eight or so are still scheduled before the new year.
In a new webinar, Pendal EM fund manager Ada Chan discusses major trends emerging from these polls, along with other issues.
EM Investors can expect more certainty in 2026, she says.
“We will have to wait and see the details on many Trump Administration policies … and implementation is key from the US.”
Investors in China should focus on domestic industries, rather than manufacturing exporters, as we wait to see if Trump carries through on this week’s tariff threats.
There are also actionable lessons to be drawn from elections in Indonesia, Mexico and India, Ada says.
She explains more in the webinar
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