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The Point
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Sep 4
Five major ASX reporting season themes | Aussie spending and rate cuts | The countries benefitting from a weaker US dollar
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Aussies are spending again. But what does it mean for rate cuts?
AUSSIE consumers are spending again – that’s the main message from the June-quarter GDP data out this week.
Overall, growth was slightly higher than expected at 0.6% versus a 0.5% forecast. Annually we are 1.8% stronger than a year ago.
But increased consumer spending comes through as a clear trend, notes Pendal’s head of government bonds Tim Hext.
Despite last year’s tax cuts and February’s rate cuts, for a while it seemed consumers were more interested in saving than spending.
However, household spending rose 0.9% in the last quarter, led by a 1.4% rise in discretionary spending.
Now rate-cut expectations have dropped from 100% chance of one cut by November to 90%.
“It does all feed into the idea that the RBA has time and optionality on its side,” says Tim.
“If the consumer gets more confident from here, some may ask if any more rate cuts are needed.”
How to identify emerging markets benefitting from a weaker US dollar
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How to identify emerging markets benefitting from a weaker US dollar
A weaker US dollar is creating support for emerging-market equities – but not all countries will benefit equally.
The US Dollar Index – which measures the USD against other major currencies – is down about 10 per cent this year.
EM returns have historically been strongest when the US dollar is weak, because servicing US-dollar debt becomes cheaper; domestic purchasing power in EMs improves; and cheaper imports help keep inflation under control, creating room for rate cuts.
Still, while EM performance lifts as the US dollar weakens, the effect is uneven and investors should be discriminating in country selection, cautions Pendal’s EM team.
Economies with a current account deficit – common in Latin America and South-East Asia – benefit most from cheaper borrowing, lower imported inflation and stronger consumer demand.
But big exporters that run a surplus such as Taiwan and Korea can face headwinds as their products become more expensive in US-dollar terms.
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Pendal identified five major themes this ASX reporting season.
1. Overall earnings were okay, with similar trends to February in terms of misses and beats. A third of companies beat by 5% or more and 22% missed.
2. Stock volatililty reached new highs on result days, driven by the tone of messaging and revisions. Almost a third of companies experienced stock moves more than three standard deviations away from their average on reporting day.
3. Rating changes were the most material driver of returns. The biggest re-ratings were generally stocks beginning to stabilise or those that affirmed their status as safe havens.
4. Disappointing large caps were hit harder than smalls. The average two-day relative return for industrial large caps that missed consensus EPS by more than 5% was -7.2% for the ASX 100, versus -3.8% for small caps.
5. Domestic stocks generally performed better than internationally-exposed companies.
Amy Xie Patrick: What the Fed’s shift from inflation to employment means for investors
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Amy Xie Patrick: What the Fed’s shift from inflation to employment means for investors
A shift in focus from inflation to employment hints at a likely rate cut in September observes Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK
In her latest article, Amy explains how she is positioning Pendal’s income funds in response to these and other global factors.
Pendal profile: Meet Australian equities analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay
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Pendal profile: Meet Australian equities analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay
AUSTRALIAN equities have the potential to offer investors a compelling trio of benefits, argues analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay.
In this video, Elise explains how the Pendal investment process helps her team identify and take advantage of opportunities in Australian shares.
Latest updates from our fund managers
Income and Fixed Interest
Aussies are spending again. But what does it mean for rate cuts?
September 3, 2025
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Emerging Markets
Emerging markets: Look past commodity exports to countries with strong domestic demand
July 26, 2023
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These podcasts are for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. They have been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
The information in these podcasts may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any projections contained in these podcasts are predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.
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Tim Hext: Can the RBA be patient with inflation?
Despite a narrative around re-emerging inflation, Australian investors are remarkably relaxed about the outlook for prices, observes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies, Tim Hext.
April’s inflation numbers – released yesterday – show a 3.6% increase in the annual Consumer Price Index. That’s slightly higher than March (3.5%) and more than the 3.4% markets were hoping for.
A rise in goods prices – mainly furniture, footwear and clothing – will not go unnoticed by the Reserve Bank and will require further investigation, says Tim.
But overall, the market is backing the RBA to do its job, he says. Implied 10-year inflation levels remain reasonably well anchored at 2.77%.
“Three-year yields in Australia moved back above 4 per cent after the data. We view this as a buying opportunity, since our medium-term view on inflation is positive.
“US inflation numbers come out on Friday and should show lower rental data feeding through to lower outcomes.
“Unless our concerns ramp up, we will be happy to be long duration into the winter months.”
Signal or Noise – Amy Xie Patrick on Livewire
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Signal or Noise – Amy Xie Patrick on Livewire
Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK joined Livewire to discuss the “Goldilocks era” of income and answer some of the market’s quick-fire questions.
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the market this week?
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the market this week?
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal’s head of equities CRISPIN MURRAY. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams
June 17
Canberra’s green bond explained | Quarterly fixed-income deep dive | Three charts that show the advantage of an active approach to fixed income
Income and fixed interest: Pendal’s quarterly deep dive into the themes driving Australian markets
Pendal’s income and fixed interest team has just published its quarterly deep dive into the themes driving Australian markets.
In the latest edition, head of government bond strategies Tim Hext explains how the RBA’s liquidity system affects investments – and why Australians need to honestly appraise the liquidity of their funds.
Head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick explores which kind of income funds are best suited to the likely economic landing scenarios.
(Hint: not one-dimensional funds).
Senior credit analyst Terry Yuan writes about a recent transformation in the credit bond issuance market which has led to a number of deals becoming heavily over-subscribed.
An unprecedented shift from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market has led to significant changes in pricing dynamics, Terry says.
Lastly, senior ESG and impact analyst Murray Ackman has a quick guide to the key questions investors should ask about sustainable investing opportunities.
Murray Ackman: Why we bought Australia’s first Commonwealth green bond
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Murray Ackman: Why we bought Australia’s first Commonwealth green bond
Australia has joined other sovereign nations in issuing an inaugural Commonwealth green bond.
There are several reasons why Pendal invested in the bond. Here are a few, according to senior ESG and impact analyst Murray Ackman.
Firstly, we want the first Commonwealth green bond to support new projects. “This is known as additionality – that is, funding something that would not have been funded but for this green bond,” Murray explains.
Secondly, Pendal examined whether the bond funded revolutionary projects. “We would like to see more catalytic change, but for the very first Commonwealth Green Bond, we are pleased with the scope of projects.”
Pendal was also satisfied the bond included clear reporting on impact as well as performance.
“The government made the commitment to have independent verification of allocation and impact reporting.
“We are hopeful that this bond will demonstrate what the minimum requirements are for clear and transparent reporting for green bonds in Australia.”
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the market this week?
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the market this week?
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal’s head of equities CRISPIN MURRAY. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams
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