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The Point
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Mar 12
How AI concerns are impacting India | What GDP is saying about inflation and rates | How bonds can drive gender equality
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Income and Fixed Interest
Tim Hext: What GDP is really saying about inflation and rates
March 4, 2026
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Emerging markets: Look past commodity exports to countries with strong domestic demand
July 26, 2023
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Anthony Moran: what’s driving Aussie equities this week?
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week according to Pendal investment analyst ANTHONY MORAN. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams
IT’S been a bullish period for assets after the US monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) broke its run of hawkish surprises – instead, delivering in line with expectations and validating the recent decline in bond yields and the US Dollar Index.
We also saw a continuation in the run of softer, but not disastrous, economic news – reinforcing the narrative’s switch back from “no landing” to “soft landing”.
In response, US equity markets hit fresh highs; the S&P500 gained 1.60%, the S&P/ASX 300 rose 0.98%, while commodities and bonds also moved higher over the week.
As a result of recent data, the market is now pricing 45 basis points (bps) of rate cuts in the US this year – with an 85% chance of a first cut by September.
At the same time, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker estimates that the US economy will grow 3.6% in Q2 2024.
On balance, this combination is positive for markets and – given the slower pace of change in the data – may support this environment through the Northern summer.
However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell noted that while he expects inflation to come down, his confidence is not as high as it had been and that it may take longer than expected for restrictive policy to help bring inflation down to target.
So, bond yields overshot in mid-April, but it is hard to see them moving much lower from here in the short term given the large pullback from peak.
We also need to keep a close watch on company earnings for any sign of impact from a slowing economy.
July 25
What a rate hike could mean for bonds and equities | What a Trump presidency might mean for investors | Interpreting emerging markets drivers
Elise McKay: What’s driving equities this week?
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Elise McKay: What’s driving equities this week?
THE market saw big moves last week, driven by a collision of shifting central bank expectations, an improved growth outlook, overbought technicals, rotational pressures, and increased odds of a second Trump presidency.
Emerging markets: The drivers creating conditions for stronger returns
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Emerging markets: The drivers creating conditions for stronger returns
Emerging equity markets tend to be driven by two broad global drivers:
- Global end demand and trade
- US dollar interest rates and liquidity
Each EM country also has its own business and credit cycles to consider, along with local political environments. But these factors are always interacting with the two main global drivers, points out Pendal’s emerging markets team.
Right now, one of the challenges for EM investors is interpreting differing signals from these drivers.
In an article, Pendal’s UK-based Global Emerging Markets Opportunities fund managers say that global demand indicators – such as manufacturing data – look supportive for EMs such as India, Brazil and Indonesia.
Consumer confidence also looks robust in these three markets.
But the other half of the story is the US dollar’s continuing strength and caution about the future direction of US monetary policy.
In this article, the team explains why they remain confident that US dollar softness – when it comes – will create the conditions for strong returns in certain countries.
Tim Hext: Can the RBA be patient with inflation?
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Tim Hext: Can the RBA be patient with inflation?
Despite a narrative around re-emerging inflation, Australian investors are remarkably relaxed about the outlook for prices, observes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies, Tim Hext.
April’s inflation numbers – released yesterday – show a 3.6% increase in the annual Consumer Price Index. That’s slightly higher than March (3.5%) and more than the 3.4% markets were hoping for.
A rise in goods prices – mainly furniture, footwear and clothing – will not go unnoticed by the Reserve Bank and will require further investigation, says Tim.
But overall, the market is backing the RBA to do its job, he says. Implied 10-year inflation levels remain reasonably well anchored at 2.77%.
“Three-year yields in Australia moved back above 4 per cent after the data. We view this as a buying opportunity, since our medium-term view on inflation is positive.
“US inflation numbers come out on Friday and should show lower rental data feeding through to lower outcomes.
“Unless our concerns ramp up, we will be happy to be long duration into the winter months.”
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