Close
Leave Feedback
Welcome to the new btim.com.auTake a two minute tour to see what we've changed
Hi there! Welcome to the new look Pendal website... Take a two minute tour to see what we’ve changed.
Mainstream Online Web Portal
LoginInvestors can view their accounts online via a secure web portal. After registering, you can access your account balances, periodical statements, tax statements, transaction histories and distribution statements / details.
Advisers will also have access to view their clients’ accounts online via the secure web portal.
The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
Sep 4
Five major ASX reporting season themes | Aussie spending and rate cuts | The countries benefitting from a weaker US dollar
Loading posts...
Aussies are spending again. But what does it mean for rate cuts?
AUSSIE consumers are spending again – that’s the main message from the June-quarter GDP data out this week.
Overall, growth was slightly higher than expected at 0.6% versus a 0.5% forecast. Annually we are 1.8% stronger than a year ago.
But increased consumer spending comes through as a clear trend, notes Pendal’s head of government bonds Tim Hext.
Despite last year’s tax cuts and February’s rate cuts, for a while it seemed consumers were more interested in saving than spending.
However, household spending rose 0.9% in the last quarter, led by a 1.4% rise in discretionary spending.
Now rate-cut expectations have dropped from 100% chance of one cut by November to 90%.
“It does all feed into the idea that the RBA has time and optionality on its side,” says Tim.
“If the consumer gets more confident from here, some may ask if any more rate cuts are needed.”
How to identify emerging markets benefitting from a weaker US dollar
Quick view
How to identify emerging markets benefitting from a weaker US dollar
A weaker US dollar is creating support for emerging-market equities – but not all countries will benefit equally.
The US Dollar Index – which measures the USD against other major currencies – is down about 10 per cent this year.
EM returns have historically been strongest when the US dollar is weak, because servicing US-dollar debt becomes cheaper; domestic purchasing power in EMs improves; and cheaper imports help keep inflation under control, creating room for rate cuts.
Still, while EM performance lifts as the US dollar weakens, the effect is uneven and investors should be discriminating in country selection, cautions Pendal’s EM team.
Economies with a current account deficit – common in Latin America and South-East Asia – benefit most from cheaper borrowing, lower imported inflation and stronger consumer demand.
But big exporters that run a surplus such as Taiwan and Korea can face headwinds as their products become more expensive in US-dollar terms.
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Quick view
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Pendal identified five major themes this ASX reporting season.
1. Overall earnings were okay, with similar trends to February in terms of misses and beats. A third of companies beat by 5% or more and 22% missed.
2. Stock volatililty reached new highs on result days, driven by the tone of messaging and revisions. Almost a third of companies experienced stock moves more than three standard deviations away from their average on reporting day.
3. Rating changes were the most material driver of returns. The biggest re-ratings were generally stocks beginning to stabilise or those that affirmed their status as safe havens.
4. Disappointing large caps were hit harder than smalls. The average two-day relative return for industrial large caps that missed consensus EPS by more than 5% was -7.2% for the ASX 100, versus -3.8% for small caps.
5. Domestic stocks generally performed better than internationally-exposed companies.
Amy Xie Patrick: What the Fed’s shift from inflation to employment means for investors
Quick view
Amy Xie Patrick: What the Fed’s shift from inflation to employment means for investors
A shift in focus from inflation to employment hints at a likely rate cut in September observes Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK
In her latest article, Amy explains how she is positioning Pendal’s income funds in response to these and other global factors.
Pendal profile: Meet Australian equities analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay
Quick view
Pendal profile: Meet Australian equities analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay
AUSTRALIAN equities have the potential to offer investors a compelling trio of benefits, argues analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay.
In this video, Elise explains how the Pendal investment process helps her team identify and take advantage of opportunities in Australian shares.
Latest updates from our fund managers
Income and Fixed Interest
Aussies are spending again. But what does it mean for rate cuts?
September 3, 2025
See all
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets: Look past commodity exports to countries with strong domestic demand
July 26, 2023
See allSubscribe to The Point
Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.
Follow
The Point
These podcasts are for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. They have been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
The information in these podcasts may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any projections contained in these podcasts are predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.
Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8.00am to 6:00pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com
Tim Hext: Australian business remains resilient as we enter spring
Business managers believe the economy remains on a decent footing and has even slightly picked up from July.
That’s the finding from NAB’s latest monthly business survey.
“The soft landing looks on track, at least for now,” says Pendal’s head of bond strategies, Tim Hext
“Businesses are not confident about the future, but still see conditions as favourable and even improving.”
But investors should separate the nominal economy from the real economy (adjusting for inflation), says Tim.
“Nominally, higher population growth has seen some expansion in the economy and increasing demand for goods and services.
“On the real side, inflation and higher rates has meant individuals are tightening their belts.
“Business knows this, and when the population growth falls back next year the nominal economy will also start feeling this.
“For now, though our models show rate hikes are still more likely than cuts, though the RBA looks happy to sit out the next few months.”
Sep 7
Stocks suited to a high-cost environment | Can commodities be sustainable | Why we’re in a per-capita recession | Assessing company management
Small businesses are doing it tough. Cloud accounting platform Xero has some answers
Xero’s annual Xerocon event is known as ‘Coachella for accountants’ – a reference to a Californian rock concert with a cult-like following.
The ASX-listed cloud-accounting platform has a pretty strong following itself now, with more than 3.7 million subscribers in 180 countries.
That’s led to a pretty good understanding of the state of small-to-medium businesses (SMBs), says Pendal equities analyst Elise McKay.
Xero is seeing SMBs report slower sales growth in Australia, Canada, NZ, the UK and the US, though wage pressures are starting to ease in Australia, NZ and the UK, says Elise.
While SMBs are still unsure about the impact of AI, Xero is adding the technology to speed up repetitive tasks or provide better insights that help humans focus on high-value strategic activities.
“For example, helping to better enable reconciliations or provide better forecasting tools around things like cash flow. And potentially using generative AI to improve customer support.”
The good news? We’re avoiding recession. The bad news? Living standards are going backwards
Quick view
The good news? We’re avoiding recession. The bad news? Living standards are going backwards
This week the ABS released our latest national accounts – quarterly estimates of economic flows such as GDP, consumption, investment, income and saving – for the June quarter.
What did we learn?
“First, the good news,” says Pendal head of bond strategies Tim Hext. “We are avoiding a recession.
“GDP is 2.1% higher than a year ago, though slowing. It’s been 0.4% for two quarters now and will likely end the year near 1.2% – slightly higher than the RBA forecast of 0.9%.”
The bad news?
“We’re clearly in a per-capita recession,” says Tim. That means economic growth is not keeping pace with population growth.
Which means the average person is going backwards in their standard of living.
“Our population grew by 0.7% in Q2, the economy only 0.4%. GDP per capita is now 0.3% lower than a year ago and 0.6% lower than six months ago.”
Why is this happening and what’s next?
Aug 31
Identifying the best ASX industrials | Where to next for inflation | Solving AI’s big problem
Three things stood out among the best industrials this ASX earnings season
What did the best-received results have in common this ASX earnings season?
Among industrials – which includes industries such as transportation and machinery – it was all about pricing power, cost of debt and where a company sits in its business cycle, says Pendal analyst Anthony Moran.
“Some companies with pricing power have not only kept up with prices, but have also been able to achieve some margin expansion,” says Anthony. He points to James Hardie and Boral as examples.
This season marked a return to more typical themes after cost control, staffing and inflation dominated post-Covid reporting, Anthony says.
And don’t forget the weather.
“It’s not just resilient demand in Australia. It’s also the good weather. That’s quite significant for Australian construction companies.”
What about the rest of the ASX? Find out next Thursday when Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray delivers his bi-annual Beyond The Numbers report.
Inflation back below 5pc – but getting to 2-3pc remains a challenge
Quick view
Inflation back below 5pc – but getting to 2-3pc remains a challenge
Annual inflation fell below 5 per cent in July and looks on track to hit 4 per cent or lower by the end of the year as 2022’s higher numbers drop out.
That reduces any urgency around further rate hikes – particularly since the fixed-rate cliff is now peaking, which effectively increases rates independent of the RBA.
However, the battle to get inflation back into the 2-3% band will still be a challenge next year and rate cuts seem a distance away, says our head of government bond strategies Tim Hext.
When Dr Michele Bullock takes over as RBA governor on September 18 she will be keen to establish her inflation credentials – so any move to a dovish outlook is unlikely, says Tim.
“For now, rates remain range-bound – as do risk markets,” he says.
Loading posts...
Subscribe to The Point
Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.