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How AI concerns are impacting India | What GDP is saying about inflation and rates | How bonds can drive gender equality
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Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal portfolio manager PETE DAVIDSON. Reported by investment specialist Chris Adams.
Most people would be aware from last week’s per-capita recession headlines that Australia’s population growth is outstripping economic growth.
But population growth – especially immigration and temporary visas – is also supporting corporate earnings, says Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
“All up, we’re probably looking at about a 3 per cent rise in the population today versus a year ago.
“People are coming to Australia with money in their pockets, setting themselves up and getting accommodation – which is driving up rents.
“Part of the reason we’re seeing resilience in the top line of companies is because they’re basically driven by nominal GDP, not per capita GDP.”
Population growth is also offsetting the effects of the ‘mortgage cliff’ which forces households into higher, variable mortgage payments as low-rate fixed loans expire, Crispin says.
“With each company we met over reporting season, we talked about the issues facing them and if they were seeing consequences from this mortgage cliff. So far, the consequences are very limited.”
The US election will take the spotlight in November, but emerging markets investors will need to keep tabs on dozens of other national polls this year.
“2024 has the highest concentration of elections, possibly in modern history,” says Paul Wimborne, a senior find manager in Pendal’s emerging markets team.
“There has already been presidential elections in Taiwan and later this year there will be elections in India, Indonesia, South Africa and Mexico.”
Those countries represent 40 per cent of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by weight and 1.9 billion people.
Investors will need to consider the ramifications of elections with the potential to affect the global macro environment that matters so much to emerging equity markets.
These include Russia in March and the US in November.
While Israel is not schedule for an election, the emergency government formed after the Hamas attacks may not last throughout 2024.
Most people would be aware from last week’s per-capita recession headlines that Australia’s population growth is outstripping economic growth.
But population growth – especially immigration and temporary visas – is also supporting corporate earnings, says Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
“All up, we’re probably looking at about a 3 per cent rise in the population today versus a year ago.
“People are coming to Australia with money in their pockets, setting themselves up and getting accommodation – which is driving up rents.
“Part of the reason we’re seeing resilience in the top line of companies is because they’re basically driven by nominal GDP, not per capita GDP.”
Population growth is also offsetting the effects of the ‘mortgage cliff’ which forces households into higher, variable mortgage payments as low-rate fixed loans expire, Crispin says.
“With each company we met over reporting season, we talked about the issues facing them and if they were seeing consequences from this mortgage cliff. So far, the consequences are very limited.”
Most people would be aware from last week’s per-capita recession headlines that Australia’s population growth is outstripping economic growth.
But population growth – especially immigration and temporary visas – is also supporting corporate earnings, says Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
“All up, we’re probably looking at about a 3 per cent rise in the population today versus a year ago.
“People are coming to Australia with money in their pockets, setting themselves up and getting accommodation – which is driving up rents.
“Part of the reason we’re seeing resilience in the top line of companies is because they’re basically driven by nominal GDP, not per capita GDP.”
Population growth is also offsetting the effects of the ‘mortgage cliff’ which forces households into higher, variable mortgage payments as low-rate fixed loans expire, Crispin says.
“With each company we met over reporting season, we talked about the issues facing them and if they were seeing consequences from this mortgage cliff. So far, the consequences are very limited.”
Positioning for a hard landing | 2024 outlook for bonds, credit, cash | Caution on home bias | Opportunities among M&A deals
Newspaper headlines have been full of merger and acquisition activity and associated capital raisings in recent months.
Chemist Warehouse-Sigma Healthcare. Brookfield-Origin. Newcrest-Newmont. Allkem-Livent. Woodside-Santos.
The activity is likely to continue in 2024, especially in the resources space.
Investors haven’t always been impressed with recent deals – but that doesn’t mean there isn’t opportunity, says Anthony Moran, an analyst with Pendal’s Aussie equities team.
“Markets tend to overreact, especially around M&A. That’s exacerbated at the moment with fears that the economic cycle is rolling over.
“Investors are concerned that companies are buying businesses that may have puffed up earnings or been trading on a cyclical peak.
“But if you can do the work on the acquired businesses and start to get an understanding and more informed perspective on the probability of the success of a deal, then a sell-off can be quite an attractive investment opportunity.”
What lessons can fixed income investors take from 2023 into 2024?
Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick sat down with fellow PMs George Bishay, Steve Campbell and Tim Hext to review the year.
We encourage you to read the full article, which covers the outlook for bonds, credit and cash. Some quotes:
Tim: “My framework for 2024 is for falling inflation and yields. Though I’ll be flexible since it likely won’t be a straight line down.”
George: “You can’t ignore the tail risks out there. I’ve kept to top-quality issuers, stayed in senior positions in capital structures and always had an eye on liquidity when adding risk this year.”
Steve: “I expect the cash rate to remain unchanged over 2024, though with bouts of volatility.”
Amy has the odds of a US recession at two-thirds in 2H 2024. “Consider rotating back into fixed income and cash – and look for good active management,” she says.
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Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.