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How AI concerns are impacting India | What GDP is saying about inflation and rates | How bonds can drive gender equality
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What’s next for rates | Questions to ask in earnings season | No stimulus, but there are still China opportunities | How AI could be a victim of its own success
ASX earnings season kicks off next week. What should Aussie equities investors be looking for?
Much more than revenue and profit margins, says Pendal investment analyst Elise McKay.
The macro-economic environment will play a big part, predicts Elise.
“In the US, even though companies are delivering better earnings, their share prices aren’t going up on the news.
“The recent market outperformance has been driven by the macro environment, not the earnings.”
Elise says investors should be asking: “Have companies maintained the ability to pass through higher prices? What’s happening to wages? Are further cost reduction programs announced?”
Look out also for how companies are managing opportunities and threats related to artificial intelligence, she says.
How to invest in Hollywood | China’s latest signal explained | Why it’s worth digging into infrastructure | Domestic demand drives emerging markets
Emerging markets investors often focus on commodity-intensive countries – many of which rely on China as one of the world’s top importers.
That may not be an attractive angle right now due to China’s weaker economy.
But it doesn’t mean there isn’t opportunity in the EM space, says Pendal PM James Syme.
Look past commodity export data to identify strong domestic demand stories, says James.
He points to Latin America, where GDP growth and equity market returns are traditionally correlated with commodity prices – especially metals.
“We’re very positive on the outlook for the domestic economies of Brazil and Mexico,” says James. “But not because we’ve got a particularly positive view on metals.”
Both countries should see significant interest rate cuts this year and next, further stimulating what is already quite robust domestic demand.
THE latest message from China’s top decision-making body caused a stir this week when investors noted softer language on property.
For the first time since 2016, President Xi Jinping’s signature slogan that “houses are for living, not for speculation” was missing from a note that followed a Politburo meeting.
That got the market excited about the potential for a meaningful China stimulus push via the property sector.
But the market is getting ahead of itself, says Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xi Patrick.
“The line has likely been dropped because it’s simply no longer needed. Buyers are no longer speculating. They are actively selling in an attempt to exit the property game altogether.”
Amy believes there is no silver bullet for the Chinese economy.
Asset allocation in uncertain times | What’s blunting monetary policy | Why services are weakening | Defining a true social bond
Diversified approach to ESG | A watch-out on AI stocks | Why our EM PMs like Brazil | Assessing WA’s green bond
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Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.