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How AI concerns are impacting India | What GDP is saying about inflation and rates | How bonds can drive gender equality
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The case for currency hedging | A ‘solution’ for stranded assets | A new kind of ESG engagement | EM countries weathering the storm
After an extraordinary year, investors are hoping for clear air in 2023.
Will we get it?
Next year is when rate hikes fully kick in and the resilience of the real economy will be tested, says Pendal’s head of government bonds Tim Hext.
“Policy-makers are happy for the pain to continue until they see actual – not anticipated – inflation turns,” says Tim.
“Inflation is a lagging indicator – often by six to 12 months. But central banks view an inflation policy mistake as worse than a recession.
“Waiting for supply to solve the problem is proving too much. Demand destruction is required, even though it means people losing jobs and in some cases forced out of homes.”
That means clear air is unlikely until 2024 when a “normal” economy returns, says Tim.
An asset class snapshot | bond-buying in a hiking cycle | Signs to watch for a turning point | US earnings outlook
Why RBA will likely stay patient | What Albo’s emission targets mean for investors | What looks good in listed property | This year’s big ESG themes
US rates are headed for 4% or more after inflation remained high in August.
But the RBA may have more patience, says Pendal’s Tim Hext.
“We still expect goods deflation in the months ahead,” says Tim, who manages our government bond strategies.
“But US wage growth is spreading inflation wider into services. Services inflation is now the battleground.
“As always, Australian bonds will follow the US. But the RBA seems prepared to show a bit more patience due to factors such as wages and our floating-rate mortgage market.
“The RBA remain on course for 3% cash rates by year end (either 2.85% or 3.1%).
“Credit and equity markets were hit by the high inflation numbers, but for now look to be range-trading rather than breaking down.”
Energy security and workplace relations were among the biggest ESG themes in the recent ASX reporting season, says Pendal’s Rajinder Singh.
On the labour front, Rajinder says investors should take a look at a company’s agreements with workers.
“If you’ve got an agreement that’s due for renegotiation in the next 12 months versus one that was signed for five years, that could have a material impact on your forecast growth of your labour costs.”
For energy, security of supply is critical, says Rajinder.
“The other thing that matters for investors is understanding the capital expenditure required to address these issues.
“What’s the capital allocation to these initiatives? And is there an actual measurable benefit for the amount they are planning to spend?”
ASX earnings season talking points; Where to look for global tech; The case for Asian equities; Why EM investors should watch tourism
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Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.