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Will the US end up in recession?
“Investor surveys suggest an 80% probability. CEOs are suggesting 70%, says our head of equities Crispin Murray.
“The market is concerned that the Fed has been cornered — the central bank can see the risk of recession is rising, but needs to restore inflation credibility and raise rates quickly to at least get to neutral.
“We are all paying the price of central banks getting policy so wrong in 2021.”
Still, the ASX is better protected in this scenario given its lower valuations in a historical context, support from a weaker Australian dollar and index composition, says Crispin.
“The hope for Australia is that lower inflationary pressure, a looser job market and more exposure to variable rates means sufficient cooling can occur without rates needing to rise to the 4% level the market is predicting. But this would require a material slowdown in growth.”
In terms of recovery, Crispin says this market “looks closer in nature to 2000 and 2008 where the market had to consolidate near its lows for a number of months before sentiment improved – unlike the sharp policy-driven bounce of 2020”.
What’s next for inflation, global equities sectors to watch, industries to consider, indicators to keep an eye on
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Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.