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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
Nov 27
Why is inflation spiking? | Insights into equities rotation | Rising interest in green bonds | Where to for rates?
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Income and Fixed Interest
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November 26, 2025
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Emerging markets: Look past commodity exports to countries with strong domestic demand
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Aug 7
Outlook for US inflation | What’s driving equities? | Be cautious with Korean equities
Amy Xie Patrick: How tariffs, inflation and China’s ‘anti-involution’ policy are affecting portfolio decisions
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Amy Xie Patrick: How tariffs, inflation and China’s ‘anti-involution’ policy are affecting portfolio decisions
Despite higher input costs from Donald Trump’s tariffs – and some weakness in jobs data last week – US consumer inflation has barely budged.
That’s largely due to contract lags in supply chains and producers absorbing the pain, says Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick.
Purchasing manager surveys show input prices rising – a sign that tariffs are indeed biting at the producer level.
Normally, higher input costs push up consumer prices. That doesn’t seem to be happening yet.
“But this delay won’t last forever,” says Amy. “When contracts roll off, either producers absorb the cost hit or they pass it on. Either way, corporate earnings are at risk.”
While US earnings season has been solid so far, the trend is heading down: three straight quarters of falling earnings growth.
The market has yet to price-in this “pinch”, argues Amy.
In her latest article, Amy explains how she is positioning Pendal’s income funds in response to these and other global factors.
July 24
Unemployment may drift higher | Meet Pendal’s small caps team | Be cautious with Korean equities
Unemployment’s up. Is it just noise or a sign of things to come?
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Unemployment’s up. Is it just noise or a sign of things to come?
The latest monthly unemployment data should all but seal an August rate cut, says Pendal’s Tim Hext.
Unemployment jumped to 4.3% in June – the highest rate since late 2021. Only a massive inflation surprise for the June quarter – due out next Wednesday – would stop an August rate cute, says Tim.
But is the June jobs data just noise or the start of a new, upward trend?
We won’t see further ABS jobs data until after next month’s RBA meeting.
But Tim notes that rapid growth in “non-market” jobs (mainly education and healthcare) has masked softer growth in “market” jobs for some time.
“There are signs this non-market job growth may be slowing, so unemployment may drift a bit higher into the end of year.
“However, forward indicators such as job vacancies and NAB’s monthly business survey do not suggest a sharp or rapid rise.”
Tim goes into detail here
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