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Look to government bonds instead of term deposits
Ultra-loose monetary policy is creating exceptions to risk and reward – and bringing opportunities for better returns, says Pendal’s Oliver Ge.
Investors who choose the safety of a government bond held to maturity are now offered better returns than a nominally higher-risk bank term deposit.
“The big banks are offering about 0.25 per cent on a one-year term deposit — $25 on a $10,000 investment.
“A one-year Australian government bond is paying 1 per cent — four times as much money.” State government bonds offer more — as high as 1.6 per cent for West Australian semi-government bonds.
The anomaly exists because the RBA is providing very cheap funding to the banks, meaning they can keep deposit rates artificially low without affecting the financing of their lending businesses.
By contrast, government bonds are issued into a competitive global market and rates are set by investor demand.
It’s likely to stay this way as long as banks have access to cheap funding.
“This is a genuine opportunity to get a lot more juice with the same or better safety – assuming you hold to maturity.”
China isn’t likely to invade Taiwan any time soon. Here’s why
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China isn’t likely to invade Taiwan any time soon. Here’s why
It’s understandable that investors pondering their exposure to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might also think harder about the China-Taiwan stand-off.
But a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a very low probability event in the short or medium term, says Pendal’s Oliver Ge.
“Near term the Chinese Communist Party has other priorities at stake. President Xi has promised to rectify growing domestic discontent over diminished living standards. Housing affordability and employment opportunities are key focal points for the CCP leadership.
“In the medium term, Taiwan’s support from the US remains crucial. Remember that Taiwan (but unfortunately not Ukraine) is of great strategic importance to Washington. China has no appetite for a direct confrontation with the US.
“These points don’t negate the possibility of a conflict in the longer term. A unified China is arguably the biggest political objective of the CCP.
“But for now the carrot of economic cooperation remains the preferred policy over brute force.”
Tim Hext: Why 2026 could favour bond investors
Play podcastTim Hext: Why 2026 could favour bond investors
As tariff news has died down, markets have come flying back in the last few months.
“But we do have a world now where the US tariff rate on average is around 18%,” observes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies, Tim Hext.
“That is not a world we have seen for almost 100 years, not since World War II.”
But it’s an environment made for active investors, says Tim in this new short podcast.
It can take years to understand the full impact of trade tariffs, yet markets tend to be very short-term focused, he says.
“That does present a lot of opportunities for an active manager,” says Tim.
“It gives does give us plenty of good opportunities to add value in active portfolios, and that’s what we’re doing at the moment.”
Fast podcast: Tariff uncertainty means opportunity for active investors
Play podcastFast podcast: Tariff uncertainty means opportunity for active investors
As tariff news has died down, markets have come flying back in the last few months.
“But we do have a world now where the US tariff rate on average is around 18%,” observes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies, Tim Hext.
“That is not a world we have seen for almost 100 years, not since World War II.”
But it’s an environment made for active investors, says Tim in this new short podcast.
It can take years to understand the full impact of trade tariffs, yet markets tend to be very short-term focused, he says.
“That does present a lot of opportunities for an active manager,” says Tim.
“It gives does give us plenty of good opportunities to add value in active portfolios, and that’s what we’re doing at the moment.”
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