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Quick, actionable insights for investors
How AI concerns are impacting India | What GDP is saying about inflation and rates | How bonds can drive gender equality
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March 19, 2026
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July 26, 2023
See allGet regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.
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Which companies will benefit from AI technology in the long term? Which are just caught up in a short-term frenzy?
It’s about more than investing in companies providing computing power or AI services, says Sue Scott, an analyst with Pendal’s Concentrated Global Share Fund.
“When we talk to companies, we’re looking for signs that the board and management are examining how the technology can improve their products and services and increase productivity.
“Does the board have technical expertise? Are management introducing pilot programs? Are they thinking about the ways they can harness AI to improve productivity?
“We also want to know a company has a strong governance framework around what they’re doing with regard to AI.”
“They’re the sorts of things were asking any of the companies we invest in.”
It looks like RBA boss Phil Lowe’s “got one more hike he’s itching to do” in July or August, says our head of bonds Tim Hext in our latest fast podcast.
Inflation data would then start to turn down and the RBA would likely pause the rest of the year, Tim reckons.
The US could potentially start cutting rates early in 2024, he says.
“With that backdrop, there is a possibility Australia could get lower rates in the second half of next year, even if inflation – and particularly wages – remain a bit sticky.”
Tim argues investors should therefore consider 10-year bonds as they hover around 4%. Australian cash rates will eventually settle down in the 2% to 3% band, he believes.
“It’s a bit like mortgage holders two years ago should have locked in fixed rates for their mortgages.
“Now I reckon investors ought to consider locking in fixed rates for their investments.”
Impact investing works in three ways to provide diversification to traditional equities portfolios, says Tim Crockford, who heads up Regnan’s impact investing team:
Impact investing funds such as Regnan Global Equity Impact Solutions Fund focus on identifying the listed companies best placed to solve the world’s biggest problems.
Right now stocks equities in the $1 billion to $10 billion range are trading relatively cheaper than their larger counterparts – an inversion of normal patterns driven by appetite for US mega-cap tech stocks, says Tim.
“You’d normally expect to pay a premium for small companies because they tend to have higher growth rates,” says Crockford. “But something has changed across 2022 and many smaller caps are now trading at a lower PE multiple than large caps.
China has emerged quickly from zero-Covid, but a property slowdown is holding the economy back.
What does that mean for fixed income investors?
“When the property sector is in a slump, it means that confidence from the private sector generally is in a slump as well,” says Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick.
“That’s leading to a lot of the recent data showing that the initial momentum from China’s reopening story seems to be petering out.
China’s weaker domestic demand and falling Producer Price Index will continue to drag on the global inflation story, “which is good for bonds”, argues Amy.
“We think there are many strong reasons both cyclically and structurally to be favoring fixed income and bonds in portfolios right now.
“The way the China growth story is shaping up for 2023 presents as one of the top reasons to be buying bonds right now.”
Consumers are feeling gloomy but are we still headed for recession?
With inflation “sufficiently well-behaved”, the main factors to watch are now unemployment and wages, says our head of bond strategies Tim Hext in our latest fast podcast.
“I think in the US it’s still the case that we are going to have a very mild recession at some point.”
While it’s taken longer than expected, the impact of 5.25% of rate hikes in just over a year are starting to show through among consumers.
“The one thing that’s keeping the US economy ticking over still quite well is employment.”
Jobs and wages should remain “not strong, but well-behaved” this year, which should stop any chance of near-term rate cuts, says Tim.
In Australia the chances of recession are far lower due to population growth, he says.
“But there is definitely a possibility we’ll have a GDP per capita recession. In other words, the economy will be better off but individually we may not feel that way.”
How should bond and fixed interest investors think about the turmoil among US regional banks?
In our latest fast podcast, Pendal assistant portfolio manager Oliver gives a plain language explanation of what’s going on, and why he believes the turbulence may not be over.
“The problems with First Republic and SVB are not unique,” says Oliver.
“There are potentially cracks opening up in the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 13th largest banks.”
If further failures occur, investors may be over-confident that the Federal Reserve will continue to launch rescue missions, says Oliver.
The relatively mild market response could suggest “a disconnect between what investors are pricing in and what’s actually happening”, he says.
In the podcast, Oliver explains what that could mean for investors – and why he believes cash and government bonds are an important consideration for portfolios right now.
After the recent Optus and Medibank data breaches, stockmarket investors may be wondering how to assess a company’s ability to withstand a hack attack.
“Understanding the risk, and what management is doing to mitigate the risk, is critical,” says senior global equities analyst Sue Scott.
Sue gives the example of Spanish financial services giant CAIXA, which is held in Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund.
“They receive 74 attacks every hour,” says Sue. Yet CAIXA hasn’t experienced a successful critical attack, she says.
Before investing, Pendal scrutinised CAIXA’s preparedness for cyber-attacks and mitigation efforts. “Importantly we saw very clear roles and responsibilities.
“It had a corporate-wide cyber policy, a specialised cyber security committee, an audit team, three board members with specific technical expertise and relevant management KPIs.”
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Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.