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How AI concerns are impacting India | What GDP is saying about inflation and rates | How bonds can drive gender equality
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March 25, 2026
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July 26, 2023
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Bonds can be an appropriate investment in a hiking cycle – as long as you know what to look for, argues Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick.
“It’s a common misconception that you shouldn’t buy bonds in a hiking cycle,” says Amy.
“In a lot of hiking cycles, bonds actually do okay on a total return basis – that is, the income you get from the coupon on those bonds, as well as their potential to gain a little in terms of the capital price.
“That’s usually because most hiking cycles are fairly well flagged. The difference with this hiking cycle is the central banks left it too late and now have to catch up.
“Even though central banks may need to keep hiking, now their mantra is well flagged so there’s hope bonds can do better in the second half of the cycle.
“It does mean you probably want to look at having bonds in your portfolio as a defensive pillar, more towards the longer end of curves.”
We’re in an “average recessionary market”, says Pendal’s Chris Lees in our latest fast podcast.
“If you don’t think there’s a banking crisis coming, then it’s actually time to gently start buying again, and that’s what we’re doing,” says Chris, who co-manages Pendal Global Select Fund.
“We’re not going into, we think, a global banking crisis market. So there are opportunities.”
“In the post-Covid, post-recessionary world, as we look forward, healthcare looks really very, very attractive.
“We’ve got some fantastic growth stocks in the biotechnology tools, the biotechnology equipment, the biotechnology outsourcing world.
“Those are fabulous businesses whose earnings have got nothing to do with oil, interest rates or the current problems in the world.”
50-point rate rises are probably over for now in Australia, but investors should watch for lag, says Pendal’s Tim Hext in our latest fast podcast.
“Firstly, it takes several months for a rise to feed through to your mortgage. So given they only started in May, the full impact of rate rises won’t be felt until the end of the year around Christmas.
“The RBA will probably do two more 25s this year. They might put in a third to 3.1%, but let’s call it 3%.
“I think then they’ll sit back and see what impact it’s had. Of course in 2023 you’re going to see a lot of fixed-rate mortgages rolling into floating rates, so there’s a hell of a lot of tightening yet to happen.
“Secondly, on the goods inflation side there’s a huge amount of evidence that we’ve seen the peak in the US.
“There’s every chance we’ll get some negative CPI US prints. This doesn’t mean inflation’s over. It doesn’t mean they’re going to cut rates. But that certainly takes the pressure off.”
If you’re like most people, your clothes are made of cotton produced with pesticides, fertilisers and hundreds of litres of water.
Or they might be synthetic, made from petroleum and destined to become ocean-borne micro-plastic.
“The fashion industry has a lot to answer for,” says Maxime Le Floch, an analyst with Regnan’s impact investing team.
“Fashion is responsible for 5 per cent of annual carbon emissions. Some 6 per cent of global pesticide production is applied on cotton crops alone.”
Austria’s Lenzing Group may have an answer. It’s making fabrics from sustainably sourced wood pulp for shirts, shorts, towels, nappies and wet wipes.
Its flagship fabrics such as lyocell (pictured) are made from cellulose, the compound that makes up the cell walls of plants. The process uses 10 times less water and produces fewer carbon emissions than polyester.
As the West hikes rates, China keeps cutting, hoping to counter the impact of its Covid-zero policy and spark demand in a debt-laden property sector (see graph below).
Will Beijing continue the course? And what does that mean for investors?
China’s monetary authorities are not independent as we know them in Australia and the US, explains Pendal’s Amy Xie Patrick in our latest fast podcast.
“The central bank in China has been lowering interest rates because the economy quite frankly is in a rut.
“Most major investment bank analysts expect growth in China will fall to levels not seen over the last decade. Frankly China will struggle to get above the 4% threshold for the next year or perhaps even more.”
If these headwinds continue to build for China, and stimulus efforts continue to be piecemeal, the outlook for global fixed income could be very bullish, says Amy.
Can investors really help solve the world’s biggest problems?
Regnan’s equity impact investing team says “yes” — and they lay out the evidence in their first annual impact report.
Regnan Global Equity Impact Solutions fund aims to generate market-beating, long-term returns by identifying companies that are innovating and disrupting their way to solutions for the planet’s biggest problems.
The team’s inaugural impact report shows investors in the fund are helping:
Train young doctors in Brazil, one of the most medically under-served countries in the world (Afya)
Produce low-carbon cement to transform the building industry (Hoffmann Green Cement)
Fight homelessness (Home REIT)
Develop better batteries for electric vehicles that charge six times faster (Ilika)
Make fabric from tree fibres to replace cotton, using less water and emitting no net carbon (Lenzing)
You’ve driven a car designed on a computer — but have you driven one designed by a computer?
The rising sophistication of simulation software means your next car — or at least parts of it — will have its performance simulated and tested by computer software, says Regnan’s Maxime Le Floch.
The technology is dramatically cutting the time to create and test new designs, improving manufacturing efficiency and cutting costs and resources.
“We need to speed up innovation across the global economy. This is called out by UN Sustainable Development Goals 9 and 12 which highlight resource efficiency and enhancing scientific research,” says Maxime, an analyst with Regnan’s Equity Impact Solutions team.
The software is also used in the renewable energy industry to design wind turbines.
Regnan’s Global Equity Impact Solutions fund has a position in US-listed simulation software leader Ansys, which aims to “help innovative companies deliver radically better products”.
The development of a decarbonised economy will take a long time.
But that doesn’t mean it’s not a critical factor right now, says Pendal portfolio manager Brenton Saunders.
The ESG transition can be divided into three periods, says Brenton:
“Once you understand that, it’s really about characterising companies in terms of where they sit in these transitions,” says Brenton, who manages Pendal MidCap Fund.
“Are they making their way across those phases to an environment where they can contend with the decarbonised, ESG world? Or are their business models fairly constrained to one of those thematics?
“We are very careful about how and if we invest in those latter sectors because this transition will take place over the course of the next 10 years. That’s definitely within the context of an investible timeframe.”
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Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.