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Mar 12
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Emerging Markets: Commodity cycle could be well timed for Brazil investors
Brazil’s powerful agriculture, energy and mining sectors have been among the world’s big economic winners from the supply squeeze in 2022.
But with an election due in October markets are starting to get nervous about a change of government.
Left-wing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is leading in the polls. When he was last elected in 2002, markets sold off sharply, fearing a big-spending, left-wing agenda.
“But he moved centre-left when actually took office,” says Paul, who co-manages Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities fund.
That was largely because his presidency coincided with a commodity super-cycle that boosted export conditions for Brazil and allowed increased spending.
Ironically, a similar story may play out again in 2022. High prices for energy, agricultural commodities and iron ore are boosting Brazil’s export earnings and lifting tax revenue.
“It’s too early to say, but it may well be that if Lula is elected he could once again be very fortunate in the timing of the commodity cycle.”
Emerging Markets: Three stocks set to benefit as supply returns
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Emerging Markets: Three stocks set to benefit as supply returns
Economists often see inflation as a demand problem that can be solved with higher interest rates and tighter fiscal policy.
But there’s another side to solving higher prices — lifting supply.
As the world rebuilds supply capacity, investors have an opportunity to invest in companies that will benefit, says Pendal Emerging Markets manager Paul Wimborne.
“Whether that’s funded by governments or private companies, we’re finding opportunities at the moment in some portfolio holdings that are exposed to this trend and are experiencing very strong business conditions as a result of new investment in capacity.
“There’s been lot of investment into technology, the internet and building out the digital infrastructure. But not a lot has gone into what we would call the old economy — energy and industry.
“We think that might be more of a focus over the next decade.”
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