The Point

Unemployment’s up. Is it just noise or a sign of things to come?

The latest monthly unemployment data should all but seal an August rate cut, says Pendal’s Tim Hext.

Unemployment jumped to 4.3% in June – the highest rate since late 2021. Only a massive inflation surprise for the June quarter – due out next Wednesday – would stop an August rate cute, says Tim.

But is the June jobs data just noise or the start of a new, upward trend?

We won’t see further ABS jobs data until after next month’s RBA meeting.

But Tim notes that rapid growth in “non-market” jobs (mainly education and healthcare) has masked softer growth in “market” jobs for some time.

“There are signs this non-market job growth may be slowing, so unemployment may drift a bit higher into the end of year.

“However, forward indicators such as job vacancies and NAB’s monthly business survey do not suggest a sharp or rapid rise.”

Tim goes into detail here

Tim Hext: Australia to expect state budget downgrades

Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty

This month’s divergence in US and China rates policies wasn’t just a curiosity for money managers, observes Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.

“It’s a study in contrasts, a reflection of deeper structural differences, and a reminder that policy effectiveness doesn’t always come wrapped in transparency or even democracy,” says Amy in her latest markets analysis.

On May 7, the US Fed left rates unchanged despite growing political pressure. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China delivered another dose of stimulus.

“One central bank faced market criticism over its non-committal guidance,” notes Amy. “The other moved swiftly and silently, without needing to justify its decision.

“Perhaps the most contrarian yet valuable takeaway is that less policy guidance may be a good thing.

“By avoiding the hard task of forecasting far into the future, we free ourselves from unhelpful narratives may that turn out to be false.

“By focusing on getting it right rather than always being right, we’re able to preserve the flexibility to change course when the fundamentals change.”

Read Amy’s full article here

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