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How AI concerns are impacting India | What GDP is saying about inflation and rates | How bonds can drive gender equality
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China’s big policies moves | Why the 70:30 portfolio is back | Bonds to watch out for | Inflation outlook
Last week US inflation rose at a slower-than-expected rate, leading to a surge in stocks.
Are sunnier days ahead? Or will this month’s data join earlier false dawns such as July?
“Although not entirely unexpected, lower inflation will continue to provide encouragement to markets that the Fed can slow the pace of hikes (likely 0.5 percentage points in December),” says our head of government bonds Tim Hext.
“Investors should view any decent rallies as an opportunity to de-risk portfolios for the challenges ahead.”
The super-high inflation battle of 2022 may be won. But the outcome of the war is still uncertain, says Tim.
Getting from 9% to 4% next year will be “the easy part”, he says. Commodity shocks from Russia and tight labour markets will likely see inflation get sticky around 4%.
“Unless we tip into a steep recession the US Fed will remain wary about calling victory on inflation soon.”
China stocks surged after Beijing finally made market-friendly policy moves on Covid re-opening and property industry debt.
Is this bottom for Chinese equities?
Investors should broadly see this as a buying opportunity for the best-positioned Chinese companies, says Pendal emerging markets manager James Syme.
“We essentially believe China’s policy choices in the past two years broke its economy and equity market. We may now be seeing the beginning of changes that are needed to fix this.
“We have very significantly reduced our underweight position in China.”
Some sectors remain unattractive though, he cautions. Avoid state-owned banks, private-sector property developers and tech giants with poor corporate governance.
How to read the rally | The signal that will end rate hikes | Lessons from US earnings season
With the cost of living rising, are inflation-linked bonds a good option?
Returns from inflation-linked bonds are adjusted for inflation, allowing investors to protect real returns. They’re not popular in Australia, which is something of a mystery to our government bonds chief Tim Hext.
“We expect US inflation will fall soon and Australia will follow by mid-2023. Risk markets may take some encouragement from this, but inflation is likely to remain around 3-4%.
In this environment investors need the defensiveness of bonds, which have restored their insurance credentials after this year’s hits, says Tim.
“My recommendation would be to buy inflation-linked bonds. The mainstream investment community seems to prefer standard, nominal bonds — as evidenced by the nominal-only benchmark proposed for bonds in the Your Future Your Super guidelines.
“In my view this is poor policy, overlooking the benefit that inflation-linked bonds provide for retirees or those near retirement.”
The medium-term outlook for markets depends on the degree of economic downturn and its impact on company earnings.
But there is debate about how much the downturn will affect earnings, says our head of equities Crispin Murray.
“Historically, recessions have led to an average 20 per cent fall in earnings,” says Crispin.
“But this is often in a low-inflation environment, when nominal GDP (a proxy for corporate revenue) is low.
The bulls argue that three factors may mitigate earnings decline, says Crispin:
Companies will benefit from higher nominal growth, supporting revenue and helping cover fixed costs
Materials and energy companies will see continued strong earnings, given lack of supply
The potential re-opening of China may offset weakness in Europe and the US
Three things to watch when re-entering markets | Why bonds look promising for Q2 next year | How China has ‘completely changed’ for investors
Budget, inflation and rates outlook | Xi and the ASX | How to avoid greenwashers | Indonesia looks promising | Euro outlook
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Get regular insights on investing, market analysis and portfolio management from the experts at Perpetual Group.