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Mar 12
How AI concerns are impacting India | What GDP is saying about inflation and rates | How bonds can drive gender equality
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Australian Equities
Crispin Murray: Mispricing is opening up opportunities on the ASX
March 18, 2026
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March 19, 2026
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Crispin Murray’s weekly ASX outlook
When is bad news good news? Right now say some investors — since weaker growth helps drive inflation lower, bringing forward an expected peak in rates and bond yields.
The market is seeing signs of inflation easing, the economy slowing and policy having an effect, says our head of equities Crispin Murray.
“As a result, concerns over the extreme tail risk of substantial central bank overtightening may be receding.”
Though it’s still too early to say whether we are seeing a bottom or another bear market rally, says Crispin.
“Technical measures of market breadth and volumes are not indicating a sustainable turn in sentiment. Seasonally, August and September are typically soft months for equities.
“Bear markets don’t tend to end until policy direction shifts. It would also be unusual to see markets bottom before the extent of any earnings recession is known.”
The average NASDAQ bear market rally since 1985 has been 30% — and the NASDAQ is only up around 10% from its recent low.
July 21
A positive story for bonds; Inflation-driven sustainability opportunities; Investing amid inflation; Defining a neutral cash rate
Amy Xie Patrick: The value proposition for bonds right now
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Amy Xie Patrick: The value proposition for bonds right now
Investors have been hesitant to include bonds in portfolios in recent years — but that’s changing, says Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.
“The bond story of recent years has been flipped on its head. Buying 10-year government bonds in Australia can get you nearly 4 per cent. At the height of the pandemic, it was 50 basis points.
“Now the credit risk-free rate is 4 per cent, which raises the bar for other asset classes.”
Is 4 per cent a good return, given inflation is currently higher than that?
“Inflation markets infer that over 10 years inflation will average around 2.5 per cent, which is the RBA’s inflation target,” Amy says.
“Ten-year bonds are yielding a nominal rate of 4 per cent. By owning a 10-year Australian bond, you are taking effectively no credit risk, keeping up with the 2.5 per cent long-term rate of inflation and then getting another 1.5 per cent.
“You’re getting paid to own something without credit risk and keep up with inflation.”
Tim Hext: RBA heads back to neutral. But where is neutral?
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Tim Hext: RBA heads back to neutral. But where is neutral?
The Reserve Bank considers a neutral rate around 2.5% and a bit. But how much is the bit?
“The concept of a neutral cash rate is very fluid,” says Pendal’s head of government bond strategies Tim Hext.
“The best notion is a rate that reflects long-term inflation expectations plus any adjustment for productivity.
“That is, you should expect your cash returns through the long-term cycle to keep pace with inflation and (assuming positive productivity) deliver some small extra return.
“This leads to the notion of 2.5% (the RBA target) plus a bit.”
The size of that “bit” depends on productivity. Strong business lending and new, Covid-driven efficiences are positive signs for productivity.
Against this are the challenges of reduced globalisation and sustainable energy.
Weekly Aussie equities outlook
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Weekly Aussie equities outlook
The role of the US consumer will be critical in determining the scale of a slowdown and needs to be watched carefully, says Pendal equities analyst Anthony Moran.
Consumers may be more resilient than expected due to strong savings balances, a still-tight employment market, good wages growth and a softening in short-term inflationary pressures.
“The question is whether this relative strength in the consumer will partly offset the recession in global manufacturing — leading to an overall economic outcome that is better than currently feared.
“The current consensus view is that resilience in consumer spending is simply a ‘head fake’ and a summer splurge, with the hangover coming in 2H22.
“This needs to be watched closely. We could be facing a scenario where the savings buffer for consumers is sufficient to see them through the peak in inflation and we see a slowdown — though not a material consumer recession.”
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