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How Emerging Markets investors should approach China now
China’s economy grew at a better-than-expected 4.8% annual rate in the first quarter, despite pandemic lockdowns and tighter regulation on property developers.
But Pendal’s James Syme says a more telling figure may be the recent Purchasing Managers Index — a monthly survey of business activity which shows activity falling to its lowest levels since the height of the pandemic.
“We can only focus on the data and the PMI is a powerful guide to how problematic things are in China,” says James, who co-manages Pendal Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund.
Market nerves about China’s outlook mean some of its highest-profile and fastest-growing companies are trading at lower prices than they have for years.
But “cheapness alone is not a driver”, says James. “You need signs of positive economic or political direction.”
Investors should wait to see Beijing’s policy response to the slowdown before their next move, says James.
What the Russia-Ukraine crisis means for Emerging Markets investors
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What the Russia-Ukraine crisis means for Emerging Markets investors
The Russian economy has been performing strongly, but the outlook is now uncertain as global sanctions bite.
We asked Pendal’s James Syme about the implications for EM investors.
“The geo-political risk is intense – possibly the highest of any EM in the modern history of the asset class,” says James.
“Recently the Russian economy has been benefiting significantly from current demand levels and prices for major commodities. The equity market is incredibly cheap on all measures.
“We recognise the intense political risk at the current time and the chance that sanctions mean we will not be given the time to see valuations move to reflect economic fundamentals.
“But we believe that, as index-relative investors, it is risky to not have careful, scaled, diversified exposure to Russia, given valuations and fundamentals.
“An improvement in the political environment could lead to a very significant move in Russian assets, as we have seen in previous recoveries.
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