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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
Sep 4
Five major ASX reporting season themes | Aussie spending and rate cuts | The countries benefitting from a weaker US dollar
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Aussies are spending again. But what does it mean for rate cuts?
AUSSIE consumers are spending again – that’s the main message from the June-quarter GDP data out this week.
Overall, growth was slightly higher than expected at 0.6% versus a 0.5% forecast. Annually we are 1.8% stronger than a year ago.
But increased consumer spending comes through as a clear trend, notes Pendal’s head of government bonds Tim Hext.
Despite last year’s tax cuts and February’s rate cuts, for a while it seemed consumers were more interested in saving than spending.
However, household spending rose 0.9% in the last quarter, led by a 1.4% rise in discretionary spending.
Now rate-cut expectations have dropped from 100% chance of one cut by November to 90%.
“It does all feed into the idea that the RBA has time and optionality on its side,” says Tim.
“If the consumer gets more confident from here, some may ask if any more rate cuts are needed.”
How to identify emerging markets benefitting from a weaker US dollar
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How to identify emerging markets benefitting from a weaker US dollar
A weaker US dollar is creating support for emerging-market equities – but not all countries will benefit equally.
The US Dollar Index – which measures the USD against other major currencies – is down about 10 per cent this year.
EM returns have historically been strongest when the US dollar is weak, because servicing US-dollar debt becomes cheaper; domestic purchasing power in EMs improves; and cheaper imports help keep inflation under control, creating room for rate cuts.
Still, while EM performance lifts as the US dollar weakens, the effect is uneven and investors should be discriminating in country selection, cautions Pendal’s EM team.
Economies with a current account deficit – common in Latin America and South-East Asia – benefit most from cheaper borrowing, lower imported inflation and stronger consumer demand.
But big exporters that run a surplus such as Taiwan and Korea can face headwinds as their products become more expensive in US-dollar terms.
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Pendal identified five major themes this ASX reporting season.
1. Overall earnings were okay, with similar trends to February in terms of misses and beats. A third of companies beat by 5% or more and 22% missed.
2. Stock volatililty reached new highs on result days, driven by the tone of messaging and revisions. Almost a third of companies experienced stock moves more than three standard deviations away from their average on reporting day.
3. Rating changes were the most material driver of returns. The biggest re-ratings were generally stocks beginning to stabilise or those that affirmed their status as safe havens.
4. Disappointing large caps were hit harder than smalls. The average two-day relative return for industrial large caps that missed consensus EPS by more than 5% was -7.2% for the ASX 100, versus -3.8% for small caps.
5. Domestic stocks generally performed better than internationally-exposed companies.
Amy Xie Patrick: What the Fed’s shift from inflation to employment means for investors
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Amy Xie Patrick: What the Fed’s shift from inflation to employment means for investors
A shift in focus from inflation to employment hints at a likely rate cut in September observes Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK
In her latest article, Amy explains how she is positioning Pendal’s income funds in response to these and other global factors.
Pendal profile: Meet Australian equities analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay
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Pendal profile: Meet Australian equities analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay
AUSTRALIAN equities have the potential to offer investors a compelling trio of benefits, argues analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay.
In this video, Elise explains how the Pendal investment process helps her team identify and take advantage of opportunities in Australian shares.
Latest updates from our fund managers
Income and Fixed Interest
Aussies are spending again. But what does it mean for rate cuts?
September 3, 2025
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Emerging Markets
Emerging markets: Look past commodity exports to countries with strong domestic demand
July 26, 2023
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These podcasts are for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. They have been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their or their clients’ individual objectives, financial situation and needs. The information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.
The information in these podcasts may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this presentation is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither Pendal nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any projections contained in these podcasts are predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.
Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8.00am to 6:00pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com
Feb 15
How to conquer the interest rate peak | Goldilocks beware on inflation data | What to watch in a turning-point year | What’s driving the market this week
On-demand webinar: How to conquer the interest rate peak
A cut in the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank is likely around September this year, according to Commonwealth Bank’s Stephen Halmarick and Pendal’s Tim Hext.
Halmarick and Hext sat down together in a new on-demand webinar to discuss the implications of the February RBA rates decision.
Inflation is set to continue falling as the economy slows, thanks to a weak household sector, while the unemployment rate will rise, Stephen believes.
With a soft landing the most likely outcome, the current bond rally should be sustained, Pendal’s Tim Hext argues.
“Bonds still represent some value though they’re not as cheap as a year ago,” Tim says.
“You should have more duration than normal in bonds. You should be comfortable about owning credit, and it’s not a bad environment for equities.”
Click through to watch – CPD points apply.
Goldilocks beware: US inflation data puts markets on notice
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Goldilocks beware: US inflation data puts markets on notice
This week US inflation surprised to the upside.
It was only a small miss, notes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies, Tim Hext.
“But it came against the narrative of falling inflation. Fed cuts are being pushed out and bond yields are drifting higher.”
For now, the markets will grant inflation a bit of leeway, says Tim. “Long-term inflation expectations only moved a little higher.
“But if this becomes a trend in the months ahead risk markets will start to take notice, since rates will stay higher for longer and the chance of a recession will increase.
“Goldilocks beware.”
Pendal’s view is that the overall trend to lower inflation is still intact, says Tim.
“But after last year’s sugar hit from lower oil prices and improved supply chains we’re entering a period of more balanced risk.
“I expect the fallout from this week’s numbers to persist very near term, as momentum funds lean against a vulnerable market.
“This will open up opportunities to once again build exposure into long-duration positions.”
Feb 8
RBA interest rate outlook | An alternative to bank hybrids | Is DEI good for investors? | Why it’s time to focus on value
Feb 1
Why now’s the time to rebalance portfolios | How the latest CPI data and Stage 3 tax tweaks will affect investors | The elections EM investors need to watch
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