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The Point
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Mar 12
How AI concerns are impacting India | What GDP is saying about inflation and rates | How bonds can drive gender equality
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Prevailing view or misconception? Pendal’s Amy Xie Patrick busts a few modern investing myths
The past few years have played havoc with conventional market assumptions.
Inverted yield curves don’t mean recessions are imminent. Expensive valuations can get more expensive. An aggressive hiking cycle need not bring about recession. Bonds don’t have to go up when equities go down.
These things can cause head-scratching among modern-day investors.
“But viewed through a longer-term lens – think multiple cycles and regimes – these events become clearer,” says Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick.
In this article, Amy explains what’s really going on with these “broken relationships”.
For example, an inverted yield curve – when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term ones – is often viewed as a sign of a looming recession.
But history shows the lag between the curve inversion and recession is highly variable – three months to two years.
“It simply indicates the market expects interest rate cuts at some point down the line, and that current policy settings are restrictive and will be normalised – for whatever reason – in the future.”
Global market volatility should be positive for stocks in some emerging markets
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Global market volatility should be positive for stocks in some emerging markets
In the EM space, market segments with the highest exposure to international investors saw the greatest weakness during the recent bout of market volatility.
Pendal’s Global Emerging Markets Opportunities team spotted opportunities amid the volatility – but not necessarily in the obvious places.
“In EM equities, the pain was concentrated in the IT sector, especially in Korea and Taiwan,” the team said in a recent report.
“We find hard to be overly positive about the IT sector, despite a reset in valuations.
“The entire sector has re-rated substantially in recent years, despite essentially soft demand in important end-demand segments such as PCs and mobile phones.
“This optimism has been attributed to a potential demand shift from widespread adoption of generative artificial intelligence.
“But beyond some key semiconductor names held in our portfolio, we have not seen sufficient evidence of this opportunity.”
Instead, look to companies in Mexico and Brazil, which appear to be well placed in the medium term, the team said.
Aug 8
How to manage current volatility in Aussie equities and fixed income markets
Amy Xie Patrick: A fixed-income perspective on current market volatility
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Amy Xie Patrick: A fixed-income perspective on current market volatility
Big market moves have rocked sentiment since the beginning of August.
What’s the outlook for a US recession and potential rate cuts?
US markets expect a 50-basis-point cut in September, followed by consecutive 25-point cuts, says Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.
“Some big-bank economists are calling for back-to-back 50-point cuts – even an inter-meeting emergency cut.” Are things really that dire?
“We argue the data isn’t there yet,” says Amy.
Either way, we’re in “the ripe part of the cycle” for owning at least some bonds in portfolios, she says.
“Without a recession, bond yields should continue to fall steadily as central banks normalise their policy settings from restrictive levels. With a recession, bonds will pay for themselves.”
Bonds provide great insurance for the unpredictable. Add to that the 4% types of annual income returns you can get on US or Australian 10-year bonds and it basically amounts to being paid to take out insurance.
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the market this week?
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the market this week?
Signs the US economy is slowing faster than expected has prompted a significant shift in market sentiment.
Even if this proves a “head-fake”, there’s room for an S&P500 correction to the 5000-5100 level – reinforced by weaker seasonals and election uncertainty, says Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
“There is also likely to be material rotation as part of this. We’ve been bracing for such a correction, with cash levels higher and positions reduced in some of the more economically leveraged stocks.”
Is this a “normal” bull market correction or will we see a more meaningful drawdown?
Tim Hext: Rate hikes off, rate cuts on in 2025
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Tim Hext: Rate hikes off, rate cuts on in 2025
Despite a narrative around re-emerging inflation, Australian investors are remarkably relaxed about the outlook for prices, observes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies, Tim Hext.
April’s inflation numbers – released yesterday – show a 3.6% increase in the annual Consumer Price Index. That’s slightly higher than March (3.5%) and more than the 3.4% markets were hoping for.
A rise in goods prices – mainly furniture, footwear and clothing – will not go unnoticed by the Reserve Bank and will require further investigation, says Tim.
But overall, the market is backing the RBA to do its job, he says. Implied 10-year inflation levels remain reasonably well anchored at 2.77%.
“Three-year yields in Australia moved back above 4 per cent after the data. We view this as a buying opportunity, since our medium-term view on inflation is positive.
“US inflation numbers come out on Friday and should show lower rental data feeding through to lower outcomes.
“Unless our concerns ramp up, we will be happy to be long duration into the winter months.”
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